Annual Economics Conference: Investment and Investment Finance Policy Address Klaas Knot
Business, residential and public investment in the euro area 2008Q1=100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Public investment Housing investment Private sector non-residental investment Total Source: ECB 2 Klaas Knot
Business investment ratio in the euro area Ratio to GDP; investment and GDP are both in real terms 25 14.0 24 13.5 23 13.0 22 12.5 21 12.0 20 11.5 19 11.0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Total investment, Real (lhs) Private-sector non-residential Investment, Real (rhs) average (2003Q1-2017Q2) Source: ECB 3 Klaas Knot
Historical shock decomposition of real business investment growth Percentage points 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2007 2010 2013 2016 Foreign demand Uncertainty* Real lending rate Real consumption Real gross operating surplus Real business investment Real stock prices Source: DNB *Average over various uncertainty indices (consensus, policy, macro, financial, Jurado et al.)
Cumulative changes in credit standards (by MFIs in NL) Data normalized (2003 = 0) 800 tightening Cummulative share of banks changing 600 acceptance criteria (%) 400 200 0 easing -200 -400 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Cumulative changes in credit standards SMEs Cumulative changes credit standards large firms Source: BLS, own calculations 5 Klaas Knot
Radical transition towards a CO 2 -neutral economy is necessary CO 2 -emissions Gt CO 2 per annum No policies Current policies 2 degrees scenario Source: PBL & ECN 6
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