MASTER PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE (MPAC) Date: Wednesday, October 17, - PDF document

LMT Airport Master Plan Master Plan Advisory Committee (MPAC) Meeting #2 AGENDA: MEETING #2 MASTER PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE (MPAC) Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2018 Time: 10:00 am to 12 pm (2 Hours) Location: Airport Administrative Building, Conference Room 6775 Arnold Avenue, Klamath Falls, OR 97603 Meeting Tasks and Timeline [2 Hours]: Project Updates and Status [15 Minutes] 1. 2. Chapter #1 (Inventory) – Review Findings [30 Minutes] Chapter #2 (Forecasts) – Activity Projections [60 Minutes] 3. Next Steps / Open Discussion [15 Minutes] 4. MPA Meeting #2 Action Items: Chapter #1 (Inventory) Collect MPAC Comments Chapter #2 (Aviation Forecasts) – MPAC Forecast Input Meeting Handouts: • Meeting Agenda • Forecast Influencers Meeting materials will be emailed to the MPAC in advance of the meeting. Consultant available following meeting to address questions and comments. Thank You for Attending 9/11/2018 MPAC Meeting Agenda Packet

Crater Lake-Klamath Regional Airport (LMT) Airport Master Plan Master Plan Advisory Committee (MPAC) Meeting #2 October 17, 2018

Meeting Topics Meeting Focus / Project Status 10 minutes Inventory Findings 15 minutes Forecast Outlook 60 minutes Crosswind Runway Options 30 minutes Next Steps 5 minutes

MPAC Meeting #2 Focus CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (CIP) AIRPORT LAYOUT DRAWINGS (ALP)

MPAC Meeting #2 Focus LMT ALP (2015) Future Crosswind Runway 7-25 and Taxiway F Disposition Future Airport Activity and Facility Needs

MPAC Meeting #2 Focus MPAC Meeting #2 Action Items: □ Chapter #1 (Inventory): Collect Final MPAC Comments □ Forecast Outlook: MPAC Forecast Input □ Crosswind Runway Options: Preliminary MPAC Input

Project Status

Inventory Findings MPAC Comments Airfield – Crosswind Analysis Airfield – Pavement Condition

Inventory Findings – Runway Crosswinds  Runway 14/32 Does Not Meet 95% (93.8%) FAA Crosswind Coverage. Therefore … Crosswind Runway 7/25 is FAA-Eligible. 10.5-Knot 10.5-Knot 13-Knot 13-Knot 16-Knot 16-Knot 20-Knot 20-Knot Runway Runway Component Component Component Component Component Component Component Component (Wind Component / (Wind Component / Aircraft Acommodated) Aircraft Acommodated) Turboprops Turboprops Turboprop & Turboprop & Large Jet Large Jet Piston Piston & Small Jets & Small Jets Large Jets Large Jets Transports Transports ALL-WEATHER WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) ALL-WEATHER WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) Runway 14-32 Runway 14-32 93.8% 93.8% 96.5% 96.5% 98.8% 98.8% 99.7% 99.7% Runway 7-25 Runway 7-25 90.1% 90.1% 93.9% 93.9% 97.4% 97.4% 99.1% 99.1% Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined 99.0% 99.0% 99.6% 99.6% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% INSTRUMENT (IFR) WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) INSTRUMENT (IFR) WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) Runway 14-32 Runway 14-32 94.6% 94.6% 96.7% 96.7% 98.7% 98.7% 99.6% 99.6% Runway 7-25 Runway 7-25 94.7% 94.7% 96.7% 96.7% 98.6% 98.6% 99.6% 99.6% Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined 99.1% 99.1% 99.7% 99.7% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% VISUAL (VFR) WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) VISUAL (VFR) WIND DATA OBSERVATIONS (PERCENT COVERAGE) Runway 14-32 Runway 14-32 93.8% 93.8% 96.5% 96.5% 98.8% 98.8% 99.7% 99.7% Runway 7-25 Runway 7-25 90.1% 90.1% 94.0% 94.0% 97.5% 97.5% 99.1% 99.1% Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined Runway 14-32 & Runway 7-25 Combined 99.0% 99.0% 99.7% 99.7% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%

Inventory Findings – Pavement Condition Focus on Pavement Repair RUNWAY 14/32 TWY G Airfield Pavements = 5.4 Million Square Feet (125 Acres) Pavement Condition Index (PCI) Map, August 2016

Inventory Findings – Pavement Condition Priority #2 Priority #4 Priority #3 Taxiway B/D GA Apron Runway 7/25 & Taxiway F Priority #1 Taxiway G RUNWAY 14/32 TAXIWAY G Approximate 5 Year = $25 Million Pavement Condition Index (PCI) Map, August 2016

Aviation Forecasts Forecast Outlook (By Component) Forecast Outcomes

Forecast – Summary Overview Purpose:  20-Year Horizon (2019 to 2038)  Support Master Plan Facility and Service Recommendations Outcome:  Looking for ‘Causation Factors’ and ‘Reasonableness’  One Forecast Scenario Carried-Forward  Approved by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Forecast – Summary Overview  Forecast Components:  Airline  Air Cargo  Aircraft Operations  Based Aircraft Master Plan does not forecast Military (Guard) activity.

Forecast – Summary Overview LMT Historical Trends:  Airport Activity Fairly Consist  Economic Downturn Impacts Activity LMT Forecast Projections (Low / High):  Majority of LMT Forecast Factors are Upward  Steady Growth

Forecast Overview: Passenger Enplanements  Forecast Factors: Annual Passenger Enplanement (Boarding) Forecast Annual Passenger Enplanement (Boarding) Forecast 50,000 50,000 45,000 45,000 High Scenario High Scenario  Regional Airline Industry 40,000 40,000 2038 = 30,500 2038 = 30,500 ANNUAL ENPLANEMENTS ANNUAL ENPLANEMENTS  Historical Service 35,000 35,000 Low Scenario Low Scenario 2038 = 15,500 2038 = 15,500 30,000 30,000  Air Service Options 25,000 25,000  Airline Catchment Area 20,000 20,000  LMT Passenger Demand 15,000 15,000  Essential Air Service 10,000 10,000 (EAS) Program FAA TAF FAA TAF 5,000 5,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 0 0 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038 2038 2040 2040 Historcial Historcial FAA TAF FAA TAF True Market Retention True Market Retention Enplanement/ Enplanement/ Baseline Baseline (Adjusted) (Adjusted) Population Population

Forecast Overview: Air Cargo (Pounds)  Forecast Factors: Air Cargo Forecast - Total Cargo Pounds (Inbound + Outbound) Air Cargo Forecast - Total Cargo Pounds (Inbound + Outbound) 2,400,000 2,400,000  Regional Cargo Industry 2,200,000 2,200,000 High Scenario High Scenario TOTAL ANNUAL CARGO (POUNDS) TOTAL ANNUAL CARGO (POUNDS) 2038 = 1.96 Million Lbs. 2038 = 1.96 Million Lbs.  Klamath Cargo Demand 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,400,000 Low Scenario Low Scenario 2038 = 1.56 Million Lbs. 2038 = 1.56 Million Lbs. 1,200,000 1,200,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 1,000,000 1,000,000 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038 2038 2040 2040 Historical Cargo Volume (Pounds) Historical Cargo Volume (Pounds) Historic Trend Historic Trend Gross Regional Product (GRP) Gross Regional Product (GRP)

Forecast Overview: Civilian Aircraft Operations  Forecast Factors: Annual Aircraft Operations Forecast (Civilian Only Traffic) Annual Aircraft Operations Forecast (Civilian Only Traffic) 50,000 50,000 45,000 45,000 High Scenario High Scenario  General Aviation Industry 2038 = 37,800 2038 = 37,800 ANNUAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS 40,000 40,000  LMT Local Factors 35,000 35,000  Adversary Air 30,000 30,000  Flight Training Low Scenario Low Scenario 25,000 25,000 2038 = 32,600 2038 = 32,600 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 10,000 10,000 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038 2038 2040 2040 Baseline Baseline FAA TAF FAA TAF Trend - Percents Trend - Percents Trend - Additives Trend - Additives

Forecast Overview: Civilian Based Aircraft  Forecast Factors: Based Aircraft Forecast - Civilian Aircraft Only Based Aircraft Forecast - Civilian Aircraft Only High Scenario High Scenario 210 210 2038 = 111 2038 = 111  General Aviation Industry 190 190 Low Scenario Low Scenario 2038 = 79 2038 = 79  LMT Local Factors 170 170 BASED AIRCRAFT (CIVILIAN) BASED AIRCRAFT (CIVILIAN) 150 150 130 130 110 110 90 90 70 70 HISTORICAL PERIOD HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 50 50 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038 2038 2040 2040 Actual Based Actual Based FAA TAF FAA TAF FAA TAF FAA TAF FAA Growth FAA Growth Hangar Schedule Hangar Schedule (Indexed) (Indexed)

Forecast – Outcome MPAC Forecast Preference:  Low/High Scenario  Other Scenario Next Steps:  Prepare Full Forecast Chapter  Airport Staff / MPAC Review  FAA Review & Approval

Crosswind/Secondary Runway Traffic and Critical Aircraft Runway Length and Extension Options Correct Displaced Thresholds Runway Width Parallel Taxiway System Options