Animal protein production in a Animal protein production in a - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Animal protein production in a Animal protein production in a Animal protein production in a Animal protein production in a resource depleted world subject to resource depleted world subject to environmental decline and global environmental decline and global warming warming warming warming By By Ron A Leng AO, D.Rur.Sc. Ron A Leng AO, D.Rur.Sc. Emeritus Professor UNE Emeritus Professor UNE- -Armidale Armidale A A Australia Australia li li

Objectives of this presentation Objectives of this presentation � Outline important issues in the coming world food crisis Outline important issues in the coming world food crisis- - competition for human food animal feed and biofuel competition for human food animal feed and biofuel competition for human food, animal feed and biofuel competition for human food, animal feed and biofuel feedstock. feedstock. � Provide a basis for agricultural scientists to become Provide a basis for agricultural scientists to become aware of the implications for food security and adjust aware of the implications for food security and adjust and meet the challenges ahead and meet the challenges ahead and meet the challenges ahead and meet the challenges ahead � Influence governments/aide agencies to rational actions � Influence governments/aide agencies to rational actions Influence governments/aide agencies to rational actions Influence governments/aide agencies to rational actions to meet the challenges to meet the challenges

The triple crisis effecting world food The triple crisis effecting world food production production- -energy, economics, and the energy, economics, and the environment . . environment environment environment � Peak oil � Peak oil Peak oil-the end of inexpensive energy and beginning of Peak oil-the end of inexpensive energy and beginning of the end of inexpensive energy and beginning of the end of inexpensive energy and beginning of expensive inputs into food/feed production expensive inputs into food/feed production � Global resource depletion including Global resource depletion including � Financial credit Financial credit � mineral fertilizers (N P K and S) mineral fertilizers (N P K and S) � irrigation water irrigation water � Soil � Soil Soil Soil � Global climate change Global climate change g

Growth of crop production since 1950 has Growth of crop production since 1950 has been a growth in land productivity been a growth in land productivity- been a growth in land productivity been a growth in land productivity- dependent on inexpensive energy � 10 fold increase in fertilizer application 10 fold increase in fertilizer application � 3 fold increase in irrigation 3 fold increase in irrigation � Increased multiple cropping of land on an annual basis Increased multiple cropping of land on an annual basis � Availability of high yielding corn (USA) and dwarf wheat Availability of high yielding corn (USA) and dwarf wheat and rice (Asia) and rice (Asia) � Huge increase in soybean production Huge increase in soybean production

Inexpensive Fossil Fuel Energy Inexpensive Fossil Fuel Energy Inexpensive Fossil Fuel Energy Inexpensive Fossil Fuel Energy Fueled World Population Growth Fueled World Population Growth

The world is using more fossil energy The world is using more fossil energy The world is using more fossil energy The world is using more fossil energy then is being discovered then is being discovered The Growing Gap Confirmed by Exxon-Mobil 60 60 Discovered 50 Futue Discovery 40 Production Gb 30 30 G 20 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 (Campbell 2005) (Campbell 2005)

Historical world oil production along with Historical world oil production along with crude oil forecast the reference scenario crude oil forecast the reference scenario crude oil forecast the reference scenario crude oil forecast the reference scenario from IEA World Energy Outlook 2008. from IEA World Energy Outlook 2008. Mikael Höök(2009) Höök(2009) Note IEA reference scenario is for a continuing increase in oil production up to 2030 Mikael

Worldwide Peak oil possibly Worldwide Peak oil possibly Worldwide, Peak oil possibly Worldwide, Peak oil possibly took place in early 2008 took place in early 2008 � Reaching peak oil represents a Reaching peak oil represents a transformative moment in the history of transformative moment in the history of transformative moment in the history of transformative moment in the history of the oil and financial markets the oil and financial markets � I t is only a matter of time before prices, I t is only a matter of time before prices, particularly of food feed and feedstock particularly of food feed and feedstock particularly of food, feed and feedstock, particularly of food, feed and feedstock, begin to reflect the reality that oil demand begin to reflect the reality that oil demand will exceed production and commodity will exceed production and commodity will exceed production and commodity will exceed production and commodity prices will reflect the value of their prices will reflect the value of their embedded oil. embedded oil.

"if there is anything that must be "if there is anything that must be understood with regard to energy it is understood with regard to energy it is its relationship to food." its relationship to food." its relationship to food. its relationship to food. � Agriculture is an energy intensive sector Agriculture is an energy intensive sector with row crop production particularly with row crop production particularly affected by energy price increases affected by energy price increases. y y gy p gy p � Fertilizers embody the most energy among � Fertilizers embody the most energy among Fertilizers embody the most energy among Fertilizers embody the most energy among production inputs as natural gas is a production inputs as natural gas is a primary input (70 primary input (70 90 percent of cost of primary input (70 primary input (70-90 percent of cost of 90 percent of cost of 90 percent of cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer). producing nitrogen fertilizer).

Oil price is linked to every aspect of life and Oil price is linked to every aspect of life and standards of living will be effected as price standards of living will be effected as price standards of living will be effected as price standards of living will be effected as price rises rises

World grain carry over stocks have been dropping since 2000 but may recover with good crop yields in 2008 recover with good crop yields in 2008 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2009.

Patterns of maize production and Patterns of maize production and use in the USA 2008 use in the USA 2008- -2012 2012 (adapted (adapted from Earth Policy Institute 2007) from Earth Policy Institute 2007) from Earth Policy Institute 2007) from Earth Policy Institute 2007) 350 350 Predicted Predicted e (MMT) ) rt (MMT) 300 300 250 250 of maize or expor 200 200 150 150 150 150 alcohol o duction 100 100 Prod To a 50 50 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2100 Production To ethanol Export

Many other factors impact negatively Many other factors impact negatively Many other factors impact negatively Many other factors impact negatively on future world food production on future world food production Decreasing water availability Decreasing water availability � � Increased glacial melt adding to water stress in dry season Increased glacial melt adding to water stress in dry season g g g g y y � Draw down of aquifers (loss of irrigated crops) Draw down of aquifers (loss of irrigated crops) � Water priority uses in urban areas and for industry Water priority uses in urban areas and for industry Decreasing land availability/ fertility Decreasing land availability/ fertility Decreasing land availability/ fertility Decreasing land availability/ fertility � � Erosion/salination/pollution Erosion/salination/pollution � Construction e.g. roads/mining/cities Construction e.g. roads/mining/cities � Decreasing fertilizer response and application � Decreasing fertilizer response and application Decreasing fertilizer response and application Decreasing fertilizer response and application � Invasive weeds and increasing pests and diseases Invasive weeds and increasing pests and diseases Climate change Climate change � � More frequent crop loses from drought and storms More frequent crop loses from drought and storms More frequent crop loses from drought and storms More frequent crop loses from drought and storms � Fertile land inundation from rising seas Fertile land inundation from rising seas for each o o C rise in � Lowered crop yields as temperatures rise Lowered crop yields as temperatures rise - -for each C rise in temperature rice yields decrease by 10%(CGIAR 2008) temperature rice yields decrease by 10%(CGIAR 2008) temperature rice yields decrease by 10%(CGIAR 2008) temperature rice yields decrease by 10%(CGIAR 2008)

Potential loss of world crop land and decreased and decreased Return to draught power Invasive species cereal crop yield Land degradation Adapted from- A UNEP RAPID Climate change Climate change RESPONSE Water scarcity ASSESSMENT) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Range of possible crop yield losses (%) Land inundation Land inundation Urban build up Land degradation g Other crops-non food Biofuels 0 5 10 15 20 25 (Nellemann et al 2009 ;Leng RA Range of possible losses of cropland (%) 2009)