AMERICAS CROSSROADS Demography: Shifting Source: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

D EMOGRAPHY , E CONOMY , AND S AN D IEGO ’ S F UTURE Edward Muna 04.22.19 @PERE_USC

AMERICA’S CROSSROADS  Demography: Shifting Source: http://www.sandiegobusiness.org/sites/all/themes/edc/images/img-block.jpg demography changing future possibilities – but persistent racial disparities  Economy: Emerging as a center of the innovation economy with new businesses in bio-tech – but sharp inequalities Source: http://blogs.cresa.com/sandiego/2013/09/mexicantaxchanges/  Geography: Positioning as a binational mega-region to promote global trade, production, and tourism – but divided

Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2050 100% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% 6% Other 6% 7% 9% 8% 8% 13% Native American 12% 16% 12% 19% Asian/Pacific Islander 80% 22% 24% 12% Latino 26% 12% Black 12% 12% White 60% 13% 13% 40% 80% 76% 69% 64% 59% 55% 51% 47% 20% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Changing Demographics San Diego County, 1980-2050 100% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 7% Other 9% 11% 12% 13% 13% 14% Native American 15% 20% Asian/Pacific Islander 80% 5% Latino 27% 32% 6% Black 35% 37% 40% White 60% 42% 5% 5% 5% 5% 40% 5% 74% 4% 65% 55% 48% 44% 20% 40% 37% 34% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population Growth by Decade San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980-2016 People of Color Non-Hispanic White 468,652 400,265 377,538 258,632 127% 127% 127% -29,129 -84,448 -27% -27% -27% 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2012-2016

Growth Rates by Major Race/Ethnic Groups San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2000-2016 60% 49% 43% 40% 25% 20% 0% -0.2% -2% -20% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Other Islander

Race/Ethnicity by Nativity, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2012-2016 API, Immigrant Native American API, U.S.-born 7% and Alaska Native 5% 0.4% Other or mixed race 3% Latino, Immigrant 11% White Latino, 47% U.S.-born 22% Black 5%

Immigration Status and Family Ripple Effects, San Diego County, 2016 Immigration Status and Family Ripple Effects, San Diego County, In San Diego 2012-2016 200,000 County, foreign- 173,000 born constitute: 180,000 Approximately 12 167,000 percent of residents of • Around 25% of 160,000 San Diego County are the population, a either undocumented 140,000 or live with a family little under a 120,000 member who is undocumented third of the 100,000 workforce 80,000 53,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Undocumented Immigrants U.S. Citizens Living with LPRs Living with Undocumented Undocumented Family Members Family Members 13 Source : Source: USC Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration analysis of 2016 5-year Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation.

Recency of Arrival by Immigration Status, San Diego County, 2016 100% 90% In San Diego 63% of 80% County, 15% of kids undocumented under the age of 18 San Diego 70% County have at least one 60% residents have undocumented been in the US parent. 50% for more than a decade 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lawful Permanent Resident Undocumented 5 years or less 6-10 years 11-20 years 21-30 years More than 30 years 14 Source : Source: USC Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration analysis of 2016 5-year Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation.

Place of Birth Composition by Age Group 2012-2016, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 6% Foreign Born 14% 11% 24% 25% U.S. Born, Out-of-State 31% 36% 37% U.S. Born, In-State 21% "Home Grown" 27% 26% 39% 27% 31% 83% 65% 49% 49% 36% 33% 30% under 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 age 65 or age 18 older

Job Growth U.S., California, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1979-2016 150% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area California 125% United States 108% 100% 77% 75% 65% 50% 25% 0%

GDP Growth Rate U.S., California, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1979-2016 200% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 181% 175% California United States 150% 136% 125% 107% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25%

Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) California and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980 to 2012-2016 30% 30% 28% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA… California 19% 20% 16% 10% 2% 0% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile -4% -10% -8% -10% -20% -19% -20% -30%

Growth in Jobs and Earnings by Wage Level San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 1990 to 2016 Low-wage Med-wage High-wage 80% 62% 58% 60% 44% 40% 22% 19% 18% 20% 0% Jobs Earnings per worker

GROWING INEQUALITY Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2012 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity, 25% 2006-2010 20% percent of income 15% 10% Top 1% (incomes above $394,000 in 2012) 5% Top 5-1% (incomes between $161,000 and $394,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $114,000 and $161,000) 0% 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : September 15, 2013.

INDUSTRY GROWTH: SAN DIEGO MSA Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and $120,000 Enterprises Finance and Insurance $95,000 Information Annual Average Earnings ($2016) Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance $70,000 Mining Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative, Support, Education Services Waste Management, Remediation Services $45,000 Transportation and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services $20,000 Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% -$5,000 Employment Growth (%), 2000-2016

Median wages by education level ($2016), ages 25-64 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2012-2016 White Black Latino Asian or Pacific Islander $35 $35 $29 $28 $25 $24 $20 $20 $20 $20 $18 $18 $18 $23 $17 $16 $15 $12 $12 $- Less than a HS Diploma, Some College, AA Degree, BA Degree HS Diploma no College no Degree no BA or higher

Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 1990 2012-2016 34% 33% 30% 22% 20% 14% 11% 9% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

HOUSING CRISIS

HOUSING CRISIS #19 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos MSA

Educational Attainment (of Adults 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2012-2016 100% BA or higher 17% 24% AA degree 37% 80% 47% 7% Some college 51% HS Diploma 11% Less than HS 21% 60% 9% 10% 34% 8% 24% 23% 40% 24% 19% 19% 20% 23% 31% 14% 16% 13% 8% 8% 4% 0% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander

High School Dropout Status by Race/Ethnicity, San Diego City, CA 1990 2012-2016 30% Percent of those 16-24 who are not enrolled in school and lack a diploma 9% 8% 7% 7% 4% 2% 1% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

Median Age by Race/Ethnicity San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 2012-2016 42 41 39 34 33 27 White Native All Asian/Pacific Black Latino American Islander and Alaska Native

GROWING RACIAL GENERATION GAP Racial Generation Gap San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA, 1980-2016 80% 67% Percent POC - youth 60% 34 percentage point gap 37% 40% 33% 27 percentage point gap 20% Percent POC - seniors 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2012-2016

THE GAP MATTERS Racial Generation Gap by County, 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 five-year American Community Survey

THE GAP MATTERS Per-Child Local Revenues for Education by County, 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Public Elementary-Secondary Education Finance Data (F33 file)

NEW RELATIONSHIP: EQUITY AND GROWTH  Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as regions and as a nation  Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

NEW THINKING: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth — for everyone. Source: http://storage.cloversites.com/northriverside baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg

NEW EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH Relationship between Initial Gini Coefficient and Length of 324 Growth Spell in 184 American Metropolitan Areas, 1991-2011 55 50 Initial Gini Coefficient 45 40 35 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Length of Growth Spell