Address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Dr Martin Parkinson Secretary to the Treasury Date Presenter
Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Per cent Per cent 4.75 4.75 2011 Pre-GFC average 4.25 4.25 4.1 2015 2014 3.8 3.75 3.75 2012 2013 3.4 3.3 3.25 3.25 3.3 2.75 2.75 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO.
Contributions to income growth Percentage points Percentage points 4 4 contribution, annual contribution, annual average average 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 to 2013 2014 to 2025 Labour utilisation Net foreign income Labour productivity Terms of trade Per capita income growth Note: The hatched area represents the additional labour productivity required to achieve long run average growth in real gross national income per capita. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury.
Contributions to GDP growth Percentage points Percentage points 4 4 Projections Projections Forecasts Forecasts 3 3 GDP growth Non-resources expenditure 2 2 Resources expenditure 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Net resources investment Resources exports Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5302.0, BREE and Treasury.
Real GDP forecasts Per cent Per cent 6 6 Projections Forecasts 5 5 20-year average 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017-18 Source: ABS Cat. No. 5204.0 and Treasury.
Output and unemployment gap estimates (deviation from trend) Per cent Per cent 4 -2 Cyclical- Long- run (f) adjustment 2 -1 Output (LHS) 0 0 -2 1 Unemployment (RHS) -4 2 -6 3 -8 4 -10 5 Jun-81 Jun-85 Jun-89 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-01 Jun-05 Jun-09 Jun-13 Jun-17 Jun-21 Jun-25 Source: Treasury.
Central bank assets-to-GDP Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 75 75 Forecasts 60 60 45 45 Japan 30 30 15 15 euro area United States 0 0 Dec-00 Dec-03 Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12 Dec-15 Source: Treasury.
Export destinations 2003-04 2013-14 Japan Other 15.7% 26.0% China 32.4% Other 35.4% United States of America 9.5% United Kingdom 2.3% China 8.5% Taiwan Hong Kong 2.4% 2.9% Japan New India India 15.2% Korea Singapore Zealand United 3.8% 3.2% 6.7% 3.6% 7.4% United New States of Kingdom Korea Singapore Zealand America 6.4% 6.6% 3.3% 3.5% 5.0% Source: ABS Cat. No. 5368.0 and 5368.0.55.003.
Estimated size of middle class by region Billions (persons) Billions (persons) 3.5 3.5 North America Europe Asia Pacific Central and South America Africa and Middle East 3.0 3.0 China 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 India 1.5 1.5 Other Asia Pacific 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2009 2020 2030 Source: 'Kharas, H. and Gertz, G. (2010) The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East.
Short term visitor arrivals in Australia '000 '000 120 120 New Zealand 100 100 80 80 China 60 60 40 40 Japan 20 20 India 0 0 Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Source: ABS Cat. No. 3401.0. Data are monthly.
Government payments to GDP Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 28 28 27 27 2013-14 MYEFO (no tax cap) 26 26 2014-15 Budget (tax cap) 25 25 24 24 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24 Note: A tax-to-GDP cap of 23.9 per cent has been applied to 2014-15 Budget projections. There is no tax cap on 2013-14 MYEFO projections. Source: 2014-15 Budget.
Fiscal position pre- and post-Budget Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2014-15 Budget - no tax cap 1.5 1.5 2014-15 Budget - tax cap 0.5 0.5 -0.5 2013-14 MYEFO - no tax cap -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 2013-14 MYEFO - tax cap -2.5 -2.5 -3.5 -3.5 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Source: 2014-15 Budget.
Personal income tax rates and the effects of fiscal drag $thousands $thousands 200 200 180 180 Average full-time employee hits 2nd highest tax bracket 160 160 (2015-16) 140 140 120 120 Average ordinary full time 100 100 earnings 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 2018-19 2022-23 First tax threshold 1st tax rate 2nd tax rate 3rd tax rate Note: Based on Budget 2014-15 parameters. 13
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