LOCAL HOUSING MARKET & ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA COUNTY Presented by: Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho January 30, 2019 Boise, ID
Introduction & Welcome Topics: 1. 2018 Local Housing Report & 2019 Forecast 2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building 3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA and Savings
Local Housing Report
A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY Total Single Family Home Sales 14000 12208 12000 11559 11048 11263 10370 10000 9553 8991 8124 7963 8000 7565 7115 6839 6761 6726 6498 6172 5892 6098 6000 5683 5154 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales 14000 12208 12000 11559 11048 11263 10370 10000 9553 8991 8452 8489 8280 8124 7963 7775 8000 7565 7349 7115 6839 6761 6726 6538 6498 6450 6411 6172 5892 6098 5998 5683 5620 5682 6000 5265 5186 5154 5131 4900 4678 4493 3873 3815 4000 3279 3125 2596 2774 2609 2210 1877 1433 1674 1552 1778 2000 1366 1190 986 878 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price 2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY $400,000 40% $350,000 35% $333,900 $324,295 $324,250 $324,900 $321,398 $318,600 $316,500 $300,000 $306,546 30% $305,000 $298,450 $297,000 $279,900 $279,110 $277,977 $275,000 $273,900 $270,459 $270,000 $269,650 $261,103 $259,278 $250,000 25% $253,000 $251,200 Median Sales $ $242,450 % Change 22% 20% $200,000 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% $150,000 15% $100,000 10% $50,000 5% $0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price 2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY $450,000 40% $400,000 $403,272 35% $392,526 $388,235 $387,780 $379,900 $376,000 $375,546 $365,752 $362,000 $357,500 $350,000 $356,299 $354,900 $353,825 $349,713 $350,000 $345,000 $344,535 30% $340,000 $339,500 $334,900 $320,768 $317,990 $311,190 $311,751 $300,000 25% Median Sales $ % Change $250,000 20% $200,000 18% 17% 15% 14% 14% 13% $150,000 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 6% 10% $100,000 6% 6% 5% $50,000 2% $0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
Ada County Permits 5000 4500 4000 3500 Single Family Permits 3000 2500 Mulit-Family Permits 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Single Family Permits 2000 Boise 1800 1600 Meridian 1400 Eagle 1200 Star 1000 800 Kuna 600 Ada County 400 Garden City 200 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Multi-Family Permits 1400 Boise 1200 Meridian 1000 Eagle 800 Star 600 Kuna 400 Ada County 200 Garden City 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY 2008 2016 2017 2018 5500 5077 5049 4995 4882 4878 5000 4772 4648 4573 4424 4409 4500 4270 3948 4000 3500 3000 2500 2240 2189 2153 2118 2060 2013 2015 2000 1967 1952 1937 1904 1897 1884 1817 1808 1759 1746 1704 1705 1677 1659 1530 1506 1504 1500 1463 1406 1371 1279 1287 1209 1185 1178 1000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY 2008 2016 2017 2018 3920 3910 3795 3800 3770 3706 3581 3555 3430 3405 3300 3206 3029 3005 2800 2300 1800 1495 1440 1378 1353 1300 1274 1270 1228 1226 1199 1183 1154 1068 1052 1034 994 1005 920 902 885 889 875 862 816 797 800 737 704 700 679 678 640 582 555 562 503 489 424 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY 2008 2016 2017 2018 1400 1301 1265 1300 1243 1225 1218 1167 1200 1129 1083 1066 1100 1018 979 1003 1000 977 919 930 900 879 848 843 840 838 832 829 816 814 800 785 786 774 775 767 766 765 765 761 756 750 749 724 712 711 700 697 689 668 647 647 600 600 583 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
R esale vs. New Construction Inventory Ada County 1200 1003 1005 977 930 1000 889 885 879 862 816 774 761 800 704 700 689 679 668 647 647 600 583 562 600 503 489 424 400 200 0 Resale New Construction 2 0 1 7 / 2 0 1 8
A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 Ada Odds 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 Months to Sell Present Inventory 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 2015 Jan Mar Jul Sep Nov 2016 Jan Mar Jul Sep Nov 2017 Jan Mar Jul Sep Nov 2018 Jan Mar Jul Sep Nov May May May May Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
AC23 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS 1.6 Total 1.4 Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds 7 $1,000,000 + 0 3 $700-999,999 9 2 $500-699,999 4 2 $400-499,999 3 2 $300-399,999 2 1 $250-299,999 3 0 $200-249,999 1 0 $160-199,999 0 0 $120-159,999 1 0 $100-119,999 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Months to Sell Present Inventory Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 Ada Odds 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Months to Sell Present Inventory 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2017 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 Ada Odds 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Months to Sell Present Inventory 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2017 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
AC24 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction 4 Total Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds 4 11 $1,000,000 + 0 5 $700-999,999 24 4 $500-699,999 6 4 $400-499,999 4 4 $300-399,999 3 4 $250-299,999 6 1 $200-249,999 3 0 $160-199,999 0 0 $120-159,999 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Months to Sell Present Inventory Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
Single Month Median Sales $ $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 Webb Charts - A Subscription Service $268,770 $302,500 $301,770 $307,421 $306,741 $319,200 $309,283 $298,423 $285,987 $304,900 A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index $288,666 $305,120 Single Month Median Sales $ $313,748 $305,182 $282,500 $278,106 $297,150 $315,400 $285,927 $349,642 $328,308 $309,000 $334,164 $320,000 Jere Webb Publishing $286,125 $299,985 $296,000 $318,760 $316,450 $304,629 $314,900 $326,662 $317,325 $333,450 $311,837 $307,862 $311,190 $340,000 $311,751 $320,768 $317,990 Affordability Index $345,000 $334,900 $353,825 $350,000 Data compiled from Intermountain MLS $329,900 $339,500 $356,299 30% $365,752 $362,000 29% $344,535 32% $375,546 30% $349,713 33% $392,526 $379,900 $388,235 $357,500 32% $376,000 $387,780 33% $403,272 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% % of Median Inc to buy Median priced home
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