Damon Ellender, PhD Candidate, UNSW School of Electrical Engineering, ACSER A market analysis for commercial ISRU production
Market Analysis • What is the product? • Where is it needed? • Who is the customer? • What is the value of the product where the customer needs it?
Why choose propellant for ISRU? Largest Proportion of launch payload from Earth >90% Propellant required per kg • For every kg delivered 80 • to the moon, need 53 kg fuel.. 70 • or a total of 424kg fuel for every 1kg returned to LEO 60 • To Mars, need 75 kg fuel 50 • Or a total of 675kg for every 1kg returned to LEO. 40 30 Relatively Simple, Easy to Automate, Generation Processes 20 • Electrolysis ,Sabatier, Reverse Water Gas Shift 10 - • For every kg of total ISRU system mass delivered to Mars* Earth Moon Mars Earth - 53 75 • A Lox/LCH4 ISRU system can produce 20 kg of propellant • A Lox-only ISRU system can produce 3 kg of propellant * Abbud-Madrid et al, 2016, Report of the Mars Water In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Planning (M-WIP) Study; 90 p, posted April, 2016 at http://mepag.nasa.gov/reports/Mars_Water_ISRU_Study.pptx 2
Potential Demand(Mars) Tonnes Tonnes H2O(ECLS) H2O(ECLS) LCH4 LCH4 LO2 LO2 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 LO2 LCH4 H2O(ECLS) LO2 LCH4 H2O(ECLS) NASA DRM 25 7 17 SpaceX 1,953 547 280
Potential Revenue , k$ H2O(ECLS) H2O(ECLS) LCH4 LCH4 LO2 LO2 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 LO2 LCH4 H2O(ECLS) LO2 LCH4 H2O(ECLS) NASA DRM 300 84 204 SpaceX 23,438 6,562 3,358 • Based on US$160/kg O2 cost • Does not include cost of saved launches. 4
Next Steps for Commercial Development • Identify and Prove Resources • Identify, Develop and Prove ISRU Technologies • Evaluate Ideal Storage Locations • Establish Funding 5
Other Commercial ISRU Potential • Other Resources • Other Products • Other Locations • Moon • Solar Panels • Arctic and Antarctic Science Stations • Asteroids • 3D Printing feedstock • Remote Mine Sites • Earth LEO • Batteries • Remote Communities
Conclusion • There is potentially significant market for ISRU consumables • Resource Exploration and Technology needs to invested in.
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