A FTER THE C OUP : E GYPTIAN P UBLIC O PINION IN THE S UMMER OF 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A FTER THE C OUP : E GYPTIAN P UBLIC O PINION IN THE S UMMER OF 2013 Alex Brezinski David Rae Sam Solomon American Association of Public Opinion Research May 17, 2014

P OLITICS AND P UBLIC O PINION IN E GYPT  Role of the public has expanded in Egyptian politics  2011: 25 January Revolution  2012: Protests against SCAF, first presidential elections and parliamentary elections  2013: Protests against Morsi, protests in support of coup  2014: TBD  Even in current atmosphere, accurate measurement of attitudes of the Egyptian public is critical 2

E GYPT CATI P ILOT  CATI survey of the general public of Egypt, among households with landline or mobile telephones  1,001 adult Egyptian nationals, age 18+  Split into two phases to experiment with methodology  Phase 1: June 27 – July 1, 2013 (n=501)  Phase 2: July 5 – July 8, 2013 (n=500)  Opportune timing allows for pre- and post- July 3 rd coup comparisons  Cross-national CATI allows for political surveys 3

M ETHODOLOGY  35 Arabic-speaking interviewers  List-assisted random digit dialing (RDD) to pulse for working numbers  Landline: list of known area codes and exchanges  Mobile: list of known mobile provider codes  Differences between Phase 1 and Phase 2  Mode distribution: 50/50 mobile to landline in Phase 1, 70/30 in Phase 2  Gender matching: None in Phase 1, respondents matched with interviewers of same gender in Phase 2 4

K EY F INDINGS  Majority support for coup  Optimism regarding security, economy  Attitudes about the direction the country is going  Attitudes towards leaders, parties, and institutions related to coup  Difference of proportions tests used in analysis  Complex sample design incorporated into test using design effects for individual statistics  Significance at p < 0.05 5

W AS T HIS A M ILITARY C OUP ? 100% 80% 60% 64% 40% 34% 20% 0% Yes No 6

E GYPT D OES A 180° T URN Do you think that conditions in Egypt are generally headed in the right direction or are they headed in the wrong direction? 100% 80% 67% 60% 58% Right Direction Wrong Direction 40% 37% 30% 20% 7 0% Pre Post

S UPPORT FOR C OUP , B EFORE AND A FTER Pre Do you think it would be very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad for Egypt if the armed forces took over for the current government? 100% 80% 60% 70% 40% 20% 25% 0% Good Bad Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or Post strongly oppose the action by the armed forces to remove President Morsi from power? 100% 80% 73% 60% 40% 8 20% 26% 0% Support Oppose

S UPPORT F OR C OUP E XTENDS B EYOND M ORSI ’ S R EMOVAL Please tell me whether you have very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinions of the following actions. 100% 80% 72% 71% 65% 60% Favorable Unfavorable 40% 28% 27% 20% 15% 0% 9 The removal of The suspension of the The installation of the President Morsi constitution interim government

P ERCEPTIONS OF C ORRUPTION U NCHANGED How serious of a problem is corruption in Egypt? 100% 80% 76% 70% 60% Very serious problem Somewhat serious problem Not very serious problem 40% Not a serious problem at all 20% 15% 8% 7% 6% 12% 5% 10 0% Pre Post

P ERCEPTIONS OF S ECURITY I MPROVE How would you rate the security situation in Egypt? 100% 80% 65% 60% Good 52% Bad 46% 40% 35% 20% 11 0% Pre Post

P ERCEPTIONS OF E CONOMY I MPROVE How would you rate the economic situation in Egypt? 100% 80% 68% 60% 55% Good Bad 44% 40% 30% 20% 12 0% Pre Post

P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% 30% 10% -13% -15% -10% -5% -23% -30% -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Muhammad Morsi Hisham Qandil* 13

P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% +51% +47% 30% 10% -13% -10% -9% -30% -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Hosni Mubarak Omar Suleiman 14

P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% +71% +68% +63% 50% +49% +42% 30% +18% 10% -5% -5% -10% -16% -7% -28% -30% -50% Religious Leaders Coup Leaders Opposition -70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Mohammad Hamdeen Amre Pope Ahmed al- Adly Abdel- El Baradei* Sabahi Moussa* Tawadros II Tayeb Mansour Fattah al-Sisi 15

P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 16

P OLITICAL P ARTIES (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% 30% +6% +19% 10% +4% +15% +10% -13% -10% -20% -8% -26% -27% -30% Anti-Coup Pro-Coup -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post The National Al-Nour Al-Watan The Muslim Freedom and Salvation Front Brotherhood Justice Party 17

P OLITICAL I NSTITUTIONS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 100% +86% 80% +78% 60% +56% +54% 40% +42% +41% +39% 20% 0% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post 18 The armed forces* The judiciary The police The interim government

D ISCUSSION  The July 3 rd coup was indeed popular  Optimism regarding security and the economy improve  Attitudes towards direction the country is going  Support for coup associated with increased favorability 19

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