A FTER THE C OUP : E GYPTIAN P UBLIC O PINION IN THE S UMMER OF 2013 Alex Brezinski David Rae Sam Solomon American Association of Public Opinion Research May 17, 2014
P OLITICS AND P UBLIC O PINION IN E GYPT Role of the public has expanded in Egyptian politics 2011: 25 January Revolution 2012: Protests against SCAF, first presidential elections and parliamentary elections 2013: Protests against Morsi, protests in support of coup 2014: TBD Even in current atmosphere, accurate measurement of attitudes of the Egyptian public is critical 2
E GYPT CATI P ILOT CATI survey of the general public of Egypt, among households with landline or mobile telephones 1,001 adult Egyptian nationals, age 18+ Split into two phases to experiment with methodology Phase 1: June 27 – July 1, 2013 (n=501) Phase 2: July 5 – July 8, 2013 (n=500) Opportune timing allows for pre- and post- July 3 rd coup comparisons Cross-national CATI allows for political surveys 3
M ETHODOLOGY 35 Arabic-speaking interviewers List-assisted random digit dialing (RDD) to pulse for working numbers Landline: list of known area codes and exchanges Mobile: list of known mobile provider codes Differences between Phase 1 and Phase 2 Mode distribution: 50/50 mobile to landline in Phase 1, 70/30 in Phase 2 Gender matching: None in Phase 1, respondents matched with interviewers of same gender in Phase 2 4
K EY F INDINGS Majority support for coup Optimism regarding security, economy Attitudes about the direction the country is going Attitudes towards leaders, parties, and institutions related to coup Difference of proportions tests used in analysis Complex sample design incorporated into test using design effects for individual statistics Significance at p < 0.05 5
W AS T HIS A M ILITARY C OUP ? 100% 80% 60% 64% 40% 34% 20% 0% Yes No 6
E GYPT D OES A 180° T URN Do you think that conditions in Egypt are generally headed in the right direction or are they headed in the wrong direction? 100% 80% 67% 60% 58% Right Direction Wrong Direction 40% 37% 30% 20% 7 0% Pre Post
S UPPORT FOR C OUP , B EFORE AND A FTER Pre Do you think it would be very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad for Egypt if the armed forces took over for the current government? 100% 80% 60% 70% 40% 20% 25% 0% Good Bad Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or Post strongly oppose the action by the armed forces to remove President Morsi from power? 100% 80% 73% 60% 40% 8 20% 26% 0% Support Oppose
S UPPORT F OR C OUP E XTENDS B EYOND M ORSI ’ S R EMOVAL Please tell me whether you have very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinions of the following actions. 100% 80% 72% 71% 65% 60% Favorable Unfavorable 40% 28% 27% 20% 15% 0% 9 The removal of The suspension of the The installation of the President Morsi constitution interim government
P ERCEPTIONS OF C ORRUPTION U NCHANGED How serious of a problem is corruption in Egypt? 100% 80% 76% 70% 60% Very serious problem Somewhat serious problem Not very serious problem 40% Not a serious problem at all 20% 15% 8% 7% 6% 12% 5% 10 0% Pre Post
P ERCEPTIONS OF S ECURITY I MPROVE How would you rate the security situation in Egypt? 100% 80% 65% 60% Good 52% Bad 46% 40% 35% 20% 11 0% Pre Post
P ERCEPTIONS OF E CONOMY I MPROVE How would you rate the economic situation in Egypt? 100% 80% 68% 60% 55% Good Bad 44% 40% 30% 20% 12 0% Pre Post
P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% 30% 10% -13% -15% -10% -5% -23% -30% -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Muhammad Morsi Hisham Qandil* 13
P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% +51% +47% 30% 10% -13% -10% -9% -30% -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Hosni Mubarak Omar Suleiman 14
P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% +71% +68% +63% 50% +49% +42% 30% +18% 10% -5% -5% -10% -16% -7% -28% -30% -50% Religious Leaders Coup Leaders Opposition -70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Mohammad Hamdeen Amre Pope Ahmed al- Adly Abdel- El Baradei* Sabahi Moussa* Tawadros II Tayeb Mansour Fattah al-Sisi 15
P OLITICAL L EADERS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 16
P OLITICAL P ARTIES (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 70% 50% 30% +6% +19% 10% +4% +15% +10% -13% -10% -20% -8% -26% -27% -30% Anti-Coup Pro-Coup -50% -70% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post The National Al-Nour Al-Watan The Muslim Freedom and Salvation Front Brotherhood Justice Party 17
P OLITICAL I NSTITUTIONS (N ET F AVORABILITY ) 100% +86% 80% +78% 60% +56% +54% 40% +42% +41% +39% 20% 0% Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post Pre Post 18 The armed forces* The judiciary The police The interim government
D ISCUSSION The July 3 rd coup was indeed popular Optimism regarding security and the economy improve Attitudes towards direction the country is going Support for coup associated with increased favorability 19
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