A Climate Change Solu(on We Can Live With Presenta(on for the Dean Democra(c Club May 14, 2018
About Me Bob Marshalla Ci(zens’ Climate Lobby Silicon Valley North Chapter
TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. What we know about climate change 2. Our proposed soluEon 3. Profile of CiEzens Climate Lobby
Burning coal, gas and oil produces CO2
…and we’ve been burning lots of it Carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere has increased sharply in our life(mes, and is now higher than its been in over 2 million years. 43% more CO2 now in the atmosphere From 280 ppm to >400 ppm now
..and ..and this this enhanc nhances s the the gr greenho nhouse use effe ffect The Natural Greenhouse The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect naturally increases Effect has ar(ficially earth’s temperature by over increased earth’s 60 o F temperature by 1.8 o F
And that’s why the Earth is warming The 16 warmest years on record have all occurred within the last 17 years.
Temperature Increase in 10,000 Years Context 0.8 Beginning of Civiliza(on - 0.4 - deg C 0 - -0.4 - -0.8 hYps://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what%E2%80%99s-hoYest-earth-has-been- %E2%80%9Clately%E2%80%9D
Hasn’t the earth gone thru heaEng & cooling cycles before? Yes, but the cycles averaged roughly 100,000 years, not 100 years!
In recent news … u Na(onal Climate Assessment Report released last fall. Produced every 4 years by hundreds of experts from government and u academia, peer reviewed by the Na(onal Academy of Sciences and reviewed by 13 Federal agencies. Among its many findings: “Human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid 20 th century. … there are no convincing alterna(ve explana(ons supported by the extent of observa(onal evidence.” Look it up at: hYps://science2017.globalchange.gov/ u
ScienEfic Consensus about Human Caused Global Warming
Who else endorses AGW? u Over 200 worldwide scien(fic and professional organiza(ons: AAAS, Nat’l Academy of Sciences, NASA, AMA, American Meteorological Society, World Bank, U.N., IPCC, etc. u All of the major oil companies Shell, BP, Total, ENI, Exxon-Mobil (!), Chevron, etc u Pope Francis u 195 countries at the 2015 U.N. Conference in Paris u Virtually all of the major poli(cal par(es of all countries
Effects of climate change
Climate change evidence all around us Sobrantes Fire Lake Oroville – California Drought Lake Temescal Algae 14
Intensity of Hurricanes Amplified • Warmer ocean fuels stronger hurricanes (higher wind speeds) • More water vapor in atmosphere causes more rain and flooding • Sea level rise causes bigger storm surges Hurricane Harvey
Sea Level Rise is AcceleraEng
Wildfires Becoming Larger & More Frequent
Warmer Air & Water Leads to Both More Floods & More Drought • 5-10% more water vapor in atmosphere than 50 years ago • While vanishing ice in the Arc(c has altered the jet stream • Result is more rain in some areas, but less in others • Also dries soil due to increased evapora(on Lake Oroville – California Drought
Ecological Havoc 27 million dead trees in the Sierras 19
But the Future is Far from Baked In
What is CCL’s soluEon?
We We know how to solve this: If w If we w e wan ant less of t less of this, is, Make this mo more expensive
Carbon Fee and Dividend Policy This is CCL’s Calling Card! 1 Place a fee on fossil fuels at the source (mine, well or port) - $15/ton of CO2 ini(ally + $10/yr. 2 Return all of the revenue to households equally. A border adjustment on goods imported 3 from or exported to countries without an equivalent price on carbon.
Is this a Democrats Only SoluEon? No! George Shultz Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State “We argue for revenue neutrality on the grounds that this tax should be exclusively for the purpose of leveling the playing field, not for financing some other government programs or for expanding the government sector.” “Before you get mugged by reality, take out an insurance policy . It’s the Regan way ” – Wash. Post, 3/13/15 CCL Advisory Board
Preparing for or AdvocaEng for Carbon Fees COMPANIES ALREADY CONSERVATIVE ECONOMISTS OTHER WELL ACCOUNTING FOR A KNOWN CARBON FEE REPUBLICANS u Jerry Taylor – former climate change skep(c with Cato Ins(tute, now author of American Elec Pwr, BP James Baker “ The Conserva,ve Case for a Carbon Tax ” Chevron, ConocoPhillips Hank Paulson u Greg Mankiw – Harvard economist & Delta Air, Duke Energy Mib Romney former Chairman of Council of Economic DuPont, General Electric Lindsey Graham Advisors for Pres. George W. Bush ExxonMobil, Google Rex Tillerson u Gary Becker – U. of Chicago economist, General Electric MarEn Feldstein winner of Nobel Prize and Presiden(al Microsoe, PG&E Medal of Freedom, strong advocate of carbon fees Walt Disney, Walmart Wells Fargo 25
What will be the effects of Carbon Fee and Dividend ?
Carbon Fee and Dividend Na(onal and regional study from REMI Under Carbon Fee and Dividend Emissions Economy (jobs and GDP) Health Incomes
Emissions reducEons Under Carbon Fee and Dividend 31% Within 10 years* Within 20 years* 50% *Below 1990 levels
Jobs created Under Carbon Fee and Dividend 2.1M New Jobs 10 years 2.8M New Jobs 20 years
GDP Growth Under Carbon Fee and Dividend $70 - $85B/year Average $1.375 T 20 years
Household Dividend Under Carbon Fee and Dividend $288/month* 10 years $396/month* 20 years *For a family of four
Household Impacts Study Study to assess CFD impacts by demographic groups ● Shows upper bounds of CFD costs because it assumes no ● change in how much of each good households purchase 72% of all households experience net benefits or costs ● < 0.2% of income Same is true for 88% of lowest income quin(le ●
Household Imp mpacts by Income me Qu QuinNle
NaNonal Results – – Percent benefi fited
Ca Carbon on In Inten ensity of El y of Elect ectrici city S y Supply y
Lives Saved Under Carbon Fee and Dividend 227,000 lives Over 20 years
REM REMI R I Rep epor ort S Summa mary y Employment ● 2 million more jobs Climate ● Reduces carbon dioxide Fiscal ● Increases household incomes Humanitarian ● Saves Lives Economic ● $1.3 trillion more GDP No economic case against Carbon Fee
Why Advocate for a CFD SoluEon? Uses market forces to reduce carbon emissions ● No new bureaucracies, heavy handed regula(ons, ● picking winners or pet projects Economically beneficial overall – and especially for lower ● income groups (on average) It’s the most effec(ve policy for reducing CO2 ● S ● emissions – AND - It’s the most likely approach to engender bipar(san ● support
Who is CiEzens’ Climate Lobby?
CiEzens’ Climate Lobby (CCL) u Founded in 2007 u Nonpar(san, Nonprofit u >80,000 members u Singular Mission: Lobby Congress to pass Carbon Fee and Dividend u 455 chapters Chapters in formaEon 41
Meet with Congress 1662 1391 1241 1086 711 534 255 106 73,988 personal lebers to members 2017 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2013 2010 of Congress
Published Media 4204 3574 LeYers to Editor 2946 2593 1676 Op-eds 646 Radio/TV 232 65 2017 2012 2015 2016 2010 2011 2013 2014 Online
Outreach 3320 2403 1952 Public Speaking 1041 695 412 Tabling 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chapters 455 360 308 228 148 74 42 13 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2016 2017
BiparEsan Climate SoluEons Caucus Explore policy op(ons that address the Educate Members of impacts, causes, risks, and challenges of our Congress on economically changing climate viable op(ons Caucus now has 72 members. 46
EXTRA SLIDES FOLLOWING SLIDES AVAILABLE BUT NOT IN PRESENTATION.
1 Exercise your personal power! • Talk with others • Reduce your carbon footprint 2 Exercise your poliEcal power! • Meet, write or call your member of Congress • Encourage others to do the same WHAT CAN I DO?
Who does not endorse AGW? u Some fossil fuel interests - Coal companies, “small” oil & gas u Organiza(ons / people with small government ideologies - Cato Ins(tute, etc. u Hired guns of the above - Heartland Ins(tute, Koch Brothers network
The ‘No Warming in 18 Years’ Myth How to mislead: Cherry pick a very hot year – 1998 – then compare to a local minimum . Not to men4on, the last 16 years include 16 of the 17 warmest years ever recorded .
The ‘No Warming in 18 Years’ Myth Ø Surface temperature (atmosphere) has warmed, but more slowly over the past 10-20 years Ø Only 1-2% of global warming heats the surface/atmosphere Ø Over 90% of global warming goes into hea(ng the oceans Ø Over the past 18 years, the oceans and Earth have accumulated heat at a rate equivalent to 4 atomic bomb detona(ons per second, accelera(ng Ø This myth is based on cherry picking – ignoring over 90% of the data Not to men4on, the last 16 years include 16 of the 17 warmest years ever recorded . 51
Global Warming Since the Industrial RevoluEon
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