3-Dimensional Monolithic Nonvolatile Memories and the Future of Solid-State Data Storage Dr. Michael A. Vyvoda Director, Technology Transfer and Operations 3D Technology Group SanDisk Corporation February 8 th , 2008
Outline Flash memory market dynamics: what drives technology advances? � The floating-gate technology roadmap � Scaling challenges: what will replace the floating gate? � Monolithic 3D memory: technical overview and future potential � 2
3 Flash Memory Market Dynamics
Strong Demand Drivers of Flash Market Growth Lifestyle Storage Billions Data Imaging Audio Video & PC of MB 15.4 Trillion MB 16,000 14,000 Media Player 12,000 10,000 USB 8,000 Mobile Phone 6,000 4,000 1.4 Billion PC 2,000 MB - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Other Automotive PC G aming Mobile Phone Camcorder USB Drive Media Player Digital Camera Source: Gartner Dataquest, November 2006 Bits shipped routinely doubles-to-triples year-over-year, fueled by � rapid average-selling-price (ASP) reduction (next page) This is enabling exciting new markets such as flash-based MP3 players � and video recording 4
Continual $/ MB Reductions Driving New Markets SanDisk Retail Selling Price per MB ($/MB) - Log Scale 4 3 % A n n u a l A S P / M B D e c l i n ASP/ MB e T r e n d l i n e 3-4 Quarter Cyclicality 2001 Down Cycle Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007 Down Cycle Source: SanDisk Persistent, unrelenting price reductions, enabled by aggressive � technology innovation, driving new markets shown on previous page Superimposed boom/bust cycles of more benign/more rapid ASP � decline 5
Projected Flash Trends: 2008 - 2011 40%-50% annual price reductions sustainable only by top tier players � Smooth transitions to 5Xnm (2007), 43nm (2008/2009) � � Transition points to date have been limited by photolithographic constraints (more on this later) Increasingly more complex NAND (Floating-Gate to Charge-Trap- � Flash) transitions at 32nm, 22nm (2009-2011) 3- and 4-bit-per-cell critical for competitiveness in 2009-2011 � 200mm Fabs no longer competitive; 300mm wafers are now the norm � in cutting-edge Fabs In next 1-2 years capacities should grow dramatically: � 512MB-2GB � 4GB-32GB In next 3-5 years cumulative price reductions (~ 10X from 2007 to � 2011) should become disruptive to DVD, HDD (hard disk drive), stimulate huge demand and create new Flash markets 6
7 Sub-segment Market Growth
USB (“Thumb Drive”) Market Size M Units M $ 250 2,900 UFD Units 2,800 UFD $ 200 2,700 150 2,600 2,500 100 2,400 50 2,300 0 2,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Gartner Nov '06 18% compound-annual-growth-rate (CAGR) in units shipped from � 2006 � 2009, much higher than the semiconductor industry in aggregate Dollar growth less strong due to ASP declines � 8
Flash MP3 Player Market Size Source: Gartner Nov ‘06 M Units 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Very strong growth in the 2003 � 2006 timeframe as MP3 player � manufacturers adopted flash memory 16% CAGR 2006 � 2009, as with USB showing continued strong � growth 9
Digital Still Camara (DSC) Market Size DSC Shipments and Installed Base Installed Base 4 Years shipments 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: DSC Forecast IDC Sep‘06, Installed Base: SanDisk Estimates Roughly 120M DSC units ship per year, with a 260M DSC installed � base (!) ~ 240M Flash cards sold per year with market size < $4.5B in 2007 � 10 10
Video Consuming More Memory Video Capture becoming a large driver of bit growth � � IDC predicts that 4800 PBs will be consumed by Video in 2009 1 � Today 20% of all PBs used in Video is used for archival storage and will grow to > 40% through 2009 1 � Camera phones are a large component of this DVC CAGR 34.6% 5,000,000,000 DSC 4,500,000,000 CAGR 25.8% 4,000,000,000 Captured GigaBytes 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 Consumer DVC 2,500,000,000 DSC 2,000,000,000 CamPhone 1,500,000,000 CamPhone 1,000,000,000 CAGR 42% 500,000,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source1: IDC Dec. 06 11 11
Projected SSD Penetration in Notebooks by 2010 Source: Gartner, December, 2006 Notebook market in 2010 is estimated at 153M units 35 1400 30 1200 M e g a b y te s (B illio n s ) 25 1000 U n its (M illio n s ) 20 800 15 600 10 400 5 200 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Units MB Solid-state-drive (SSD) adoption driven by price elasticity and � MLC adoption (must reasonably compete with rotating-media) SSD penetration in ~ 20% of the notebook market = 32M units � 1300 PB of NAND flash to be used in SSDs or 11% of NAND � output TAM > $3B in 2010 $100/system ASP � 12 12
Finally: Mobile Phones as the Market Leader 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Worldwide Handset Sales Shipments of Slotted (MU) Phones (MU) Source: Strategy Analytics, December 2006 500M phones with Flash-card slots shipped in 2007, projected to � almost double by 2010 13 13
Conclusions – Market Dynamics The solid-state data storage market, dominated by Flash � memory, has grown and will continue to grow very rapidly in the foreseeable future This growth has been driven entirely by the effects of price � elasticity: lower prices lead to nonlinear growth in bits shipped, due to the appearance of new markets for memory The markets for Flash memory are now very diverse, ranging � from music to video to still images to hard-disk replacements 14 14
15 15 NAND Technology Roadmap
NAND Memory Product Roadmap 128G 96G Product Memory Capacity 32nm 64G 43nm 32nm 32G 56nm 43nm 16G 70nm 56nm 8G Released 4G 2G 1G 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 Source: SanDisk Near-yearly technology-node transitions are responsible for the price � declines and bit-growth described in the previous slides � 50% year-over-year price declines matched by YOY cost declines 16 16
New Process Node Transition Every Year Technology Transition for Total Captive Wafer Production – % of GB 100% 90% 43nm 80% 56nm 70% 70nm 60% 50% 90nm 40% 130nm 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: SanDisk 17 17
Going Beyond 2 Bits/ Cell (“MLC”) System Expertise Increasingly Important 4 bits/cell 16 levels 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 3 bits/cell 8 levels 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 (“x3”) 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 bits/cell 4 levels 10 00 01 11 (“MLC”) 1 bit/cell 2 levels 0 1 (“SLC”) Very advanced controller chips required to move above 2-bit/cell � � Signal processing and other algorithm innovations to maintain high write speeds and data retention � Wear-leveling algorithms to increase endurance 18 18
Multi-bit-per-cell I mplementation Source: SanDisk Super SA-STI I mmersion Litho ~ 56-nm New Structure New Materials 0.1 0.1 Binary MLC (2b/ cell) 2G 4G MLC (3b/ cell) 4G Effective Cell Size 8G 8G MLC (4b/ cell) 8G 0.01 0.01 16G 16G 16G 32G 32G 64G 64G 64G 0.001 0.001 90 nm 70 nm 56 nm 43 nm 32 nm 2x nm 90 nm 70 nm 56 nm 43 nm 32 nm 2x nm 0.0001 0.0001 Jan- - Jan- - Jan- - Jan- - Jan- - Jan- - Jan Jan- Jan - Jan- - Jan- - Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan ‘09 09 ‘04 04 ‘05 05 ‘06 06 ‘07 07 ‘08 08 ‘ ‘10 ‘ 10 ‘11 11 ‘12 12 ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ 2-bit-per-cell (MLC) has been mainstream for several years now, � among the top-tier suppliers 3-bit-per-cell (x3) on SanDisk’s 56nm technology will ramp in mid-’08 � 19 19
Photolithography as a Technology Enabler Dry ArF 70nm λ =193nm NA < 1.0 Wet 56nm ArF l= 193nm NA > 1.0 Immersion ArF λ =193nm NA >> 1.0 43nm Immersion ArF λ =193nm 32nm Further Aggressive Hyper NA >> 1.0 shrink with immersion & hyper NA EUV 2xnm 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: SanDisk For the past several years, brute-force physical scaling as lead the � way to technology-node transitions Immersion lithography as a key enabler for 56nm and onwards � 20 20
21 21 Scaling Challenges and Alternate Devices
Scaling Challenges Physical limitations � � How do we print, etch and fill lines/spaces below 3xnm? � To continue on the Moore’s Law trajectory of cost reduction, innovation is needed Cell-to-cell coupling � � Vt shift due to coupling from adjacent cells exacerbated at tighter geometries Electron-loss tolerance � (from floating gate) � Reduced allowance for electron loss to avoid Source: Kim and Jeong, 2007 IEDM large Vt shift 22 22
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