2019 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 19, 2019
Jeff Jensen Bachelor of Science | Meteorology | Iowa State University Broadcast Meteorologist | Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska Customer Service Representative | Northern Natural Gas | Omaha, Nebraska | 2008 - present 2
The Seasons Fall: September – October – November Winter: December – January – February Spring: March – April – May 3
Review of Jeff’s 2018 – 2019 Forecast 4
Last Fall’s Forecast September – October – November 2018 2018 2018 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 5
6
Hurricane Michael October 9, 2018 Category 5 storm – winds of >157 mph 7
Hurricane Michael October 10, 2018 Mexico Beach, Florida 8
Hurricane Michael October 10, 2018 Mexico Beach, Florida 9
Early Snow! October 14, 2018 3.4” measured in LaVista, Nebraska 2016 10
Early Snow! October 14, 2018 Over 6” Southwest of Lincoln, Nebraska 2016 11
Early Snow! October 14, 2018 12
13
November 1, 2018 14
November 30 – December 2, 2018 15
November 30 – December 2, 2018 Around 5- 6” in Omaha, Nebraska 16
17
Last Fall’s Forecast September – October – November 2018 2018 2018 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 18
Actual Fall Departures September – October – November 2018 2018 2018 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 19
December 1, 2018 20
Last Winter’s Forecast December – January – February 2018 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 21
22
Dry West Heading into Winter 23
January 1, 2019 24
Mid Winter Bitter Cold January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south 25
Mid Winter Bitter Cold January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south 26
Mid Winter Bitter Cold January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south 27
Mid Winter Bitter Cold January 30, 2019 The latest Polar Vortex slides south 28
29
February 1, 2019 30
Late Winter Blizzard February 23-24, 2019 Omaha, Nebraska 2016 31
Late Winter Blizzard February 23-24, 2019 Omaha, Nebraska 2016 32
Late Winter Blizzard February 23-24, 2019 Near Emmetsburg, Iowa 2016 33
34
Last Winter’s Forecast December – January – February 2018 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 35
Actual Winter Departures December – January – February 2018 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 36
Actual Winter Departures December – January – February 2018 2019 2019 1 st half of winter 2 nd half of winter 37
Actual Winter Departures December – January – February 2018 2019 2019 1 st half of winter 2 nd half of winter 38
Last Spring’s Forecast March – April – May 2019 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 39
March 1, 2019 40
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 Near Beauregard, Alabama 41
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 Over a ½ hour lead time 42
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 43
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 Near Beauregard, Alabama – EF-4 damage/23 dead 44
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 Winds estimated over 170 mph! 45
Early Spring Severe Weather March 3, 2019 Winds estimated over 170 mph! 46
47
2018 – 2019 Heating Season Results Northern’s Market Area temperatures were 13% colder than normal during the heating season of November 1 – March 31. 48
2018 – 2019 Heating Season Results 49
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 50
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 51
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 52
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 53
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 54
Midwest Mid-March Major Flooding Rain + quick snowmelt + ice jams = flooding 55
April 1, 2019 56
Much Snowier Than a Normal Winter! Omaha’s ‘Normal’ Seasonal Snowfall 27.1” 2018 – 2019 Snowfall 52.7” (+25.6”) 57
Another Snowy Season North! Minneapolis’ ‘Normal’ Seasonal Snowfall 45.3” 2018 – 2019 Snowfall 77.1” (+32.1”) 58
59
May 1, 2019 60
61
62
Last Spring’s Forecast March – April – May 2019 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 63
Actual Spring Departures March – April – May 2019 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 64
Weather Trivia Time What was the heaviest snow in San Antonio in the past 5 years? 1.9” December 7, 2017 3.0” January 5, 2016 0.7” December 28, 2018 1.2” March 1, 2019 65
Weather Trivia Time What was the heaviest snow in San Antonio in the past 5 years? 1.9” December 7, 2017 3.0” January 5, 2016 0.7” December 28, 2018 1.2” March 1, 2019 66
Long Range Forecasting 67
The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique 68
The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique Omaha, Nebraska September 1, 2019 69
Sunspots 70
Sunspot Cycles 71
Recent Sunspot Cycles 72
Current Sunspot Activity 73
Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere September 15, 2019 74
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 12, 2019 75
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 12, 2019 Warm waters 76
El Nino Unlikely for Winter 2019 – 2020 September 2019 77
El Nino Unlikely for Winter 2019 – 2020 September 2019 78
Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model from Australia CURRENT FORECAST 79
Last Winter was a ‘Weak El Nino Winter’ 80
Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 81
Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 82
A Look at Jeff’s 2019 – 2020 Forecast 83
NOAA Fall Outlook September – October – November 2019 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 84
Jeff’s Fall Forecast September – October – November 2019 2019 2019 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 85
NOAA Winter Outlook December – January – February 2019 2020 2020 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 86
The Weather Network’s Winter Outlook 87
Jeff’s Winter Forecast December – January – February 2019 2020 2020 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 88
NOAA Spring Outlook March – April – May 2020 2020 2020 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 89
Jeff’s Spring Forecast March – April – May 2020 2020 2020 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 90
To conclude……. 91
FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: SPRING: 92
FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: West of Rockies – Mild Temperatures East of Rockies – Slightly below normal temperatures Less snow than last winter Southeast – Below normal temperatures/below normal precipitation SPRING: 93
FALL: Most of the nation – Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures east Pacific NW/West Coast – Above normal temperatures Most of the country – Near normal rainfall WINTER: West of Rockies – Mild Temperatures East of Rockies – Slightly below normal temperatures Less snow than last winter Southeast – Below normal temperatures/below normal precipitation SPRING: Most of the nation – Mild temperatures New England – Cooler than normal Southeast – Drier than normal Rest of nation – Near normal rainfall 94
Thank You! That’s a wrap for this year! 95
Recommend
More recommend
