20 15 Hurricane Season B Y : S T O R M T E A M 8 M E T E O R O L O G I S T J U L I E P H I L L I P S
FORECAST • COLOR AD O S TATE U N I VE R S I TY F OR E CAS T I S CALLI N G F OR “ON E OF TH E LE AS T ACTI VE S E AS ON S S I N CE TH E M I D 2 0 TH CE N TU R Y!” • TH E OF F I CI AL F OR E CAS T F R OM TH E N ATI ON AL H U R R I CAN E CE N TE R W I LL B E OU T N E X T W E E K.
Why The Forecast Is Only So Important Remember These Forecasts Do Not Predict Landfalls! This is why Coastal Residents MUST PREPARE the same each year. Remember Andrew? That was a well below average year… only 4 Named Storms all season.
ANDREW AFTERMATH
It has been 9 years since a Hurricane has hit Florida!!!! That is the longest we have gone without a hit, since we have been keeping records in the 1850s! Also the last big hurricane to hit near the Tampa Bay area was Charley in 2004 in Punta Gorda. Since then 60% of residents are new in the Don’t Be Unprepared For The Tampa Bay area! Next Big Storm !
Behind The Forecast… . 1. Cooler Than Norm al Waters in the Tropical & Subtropical Atlantic Ocean. 2. An El Nino of m oderate strength is likely to develop by the fall.
Getting an Early Start! Tropical Storm Ana Formed early in May and is The first named storm of the season!
Pre June Storms… .. Hurricane Season officially starts June 1 st , but it’s not too unusual to see storms in May. In Fact in May of 2012 we got a quick start to the season and saw 2 Storms (Alberto & Beryl) which both formed before June 1 st ! ****There is NO LINK to an early start & an active Hurricane Season*****
When a Storm Is Looming What Do You Need To Worry About?
Tropical Storm - 40 mph Category 1 - 75 mph Category 2 – 96 mph Category 3 – 111 mph Category 4 - 130 mph Category 5 - 157 mph Extrem e Threat: 3,4, or 5 Structural Damage; Some complete wall or roof failure. Mobile homes destroyed Large trees and signs down Strong Winds Widespread Power Outages
Tornado Watches are common in NE quadrants of tropical systems. The motion of the winds moving onshore enhances wind shear within the storm. Most tornadoes produced in tropical systems are short-lived and on the weak side. Still a MAJOR threat Tornadoes though, even in tropical storms.
Probably the GREATEST Threat to property & your life during a hurricane along coast. Strong winds push water toward the coast causing a rise in sea level. Especially troublesome during high tide. Forecasting is complex because you must factor in the sea floor and features like Bays… Tampa Bay Area is extremely vulnerable to Storm Surge! Cat. 1 could Storm Surge create a 7 ft. surge… Cat 5 a 28 ft surge in Hillsborough County.
"In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States." Ed Rappaport National Hurricane Center The Category of a storm says NOTHING about this threat. Slow moving storms of any strength can create major flooding Remember 2 feet of water Inland Flooding can carry away most cars… even SUV’s!
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE Have a Fam ily Plan and Supplies to Last you through the storm . In Pinellas County that could be 10 days! Look into Keep your alternative phone im portant chargers. Like solar docum ents in a safe powered ones. with you. Safety Deposit Boxes were com prom ised in Be Sure Others Katrina . Know your plan!
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE “ THE FIRST 72 IS UP TO YOU” Reinforce your If you have tim e Garage Door if snap pictures of Possible. It can pop item s inside your off your roof in a house before the storm ! season even starts! This will help after Get your old fam ily the storm . pics scanned into the com puter.
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