2019: THAT Just Happened Scott Irwin Daily Closing Price for the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2019: THAT Just Happened Scott Irwin

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 February 7, 2018: US implements a 30 9.75 percent tariff on all solar Dollars per Bushel panel imports, except for 9.50 those from Canada and a 20 percent tariff on washing 9.25 machine imports 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 March 23, 2018: US imposes a 25 percent tariff 9.75 on all steel imports (except Dollars per Bushel from Argentina, Australia, 9.50 Brazil, and South Korea) and a 10 percent tariff on 9.25 all aluminum imports (except from Argentina and 9.00 Australia). 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 April 4, 2018: China proposes 25 percent tariffs 9.75 to be applied on 106 Dollars per Bushel products (worth US$50 9.50 billion) on goods such as soybeans , automobile, 9.25 chemicals (list revised on June 16). 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 May 29, 2018: US reinstates tariff plans after brief truce. Dollars per Bushel 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel 9.50 August 27, 2018: USDA announces Market Facilitation 9.25 Program (MFP1) for farmers impacted by China’s tariffs 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 U.S-China negotiations Dollars per Bushel 9.50 continue for remainder of 2018 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019 2.60 2.50 2.40 U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2.30 2018 Breakeven Ratio 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.90

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019 2.60 2.50 2018 US Planted Acreage 2.40 Corn: 89.1 million U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2.30 Soybean : 89.2 million 2018 Breakeven Ratio 2019?? 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.90

Cumulative Monthly Precipitation Above Average in Illinois, September 2018 - May 2019 12 10 8 Inches 6 4 2 0

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel 9.50 April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in 9.25 Washington Trump says that the two sides 9.00 will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese 8.75 negotiators agree to continue talks the following week. 8.50 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel 9.50 April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in 9.25 Washington Trump says that the two sides 9.00 will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese 8.75 negotiators agree to continue talks the following week. 8.50 May 10, 2019 8.25

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 4.75 4.50 U.S-China negotiations Dollars per Bushel continue for remainder of 4.25 2018 4.00 3.75 May 10, 2019 3.50

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019 2.60 2.50 2019 US Planted Acreage in 2.40 May 10 WASDE Report Corn: 92.8 million +3.7m 2.30 Breakeven Ratio Soybeans: 84.6 million -4.6m 2.20 May 10, 2019 2.10 2.00 1.90

Cumulative Monthly Precipitation Above Average in Illinois, September 2018 - May 2019 12 10 8 Inches 6 4 2 0

Weekly Illinois Corn Planting Progress, 2019 vs. 2014- 2018 Five-Year Average 100 90 80 June 2, 2019: 45% corn Planting Progress (%) planting progress, 54% 70 behind 5-year average 60 5-Year Average 50 40 30 20 2019 10 0

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 4.75 June 17, 2019 4.50 U.S-China negotiations Dollars per Bushel continue for remainder of 4.25 2018 4.00 3.75 3.50

Daily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 10.25 10.00 9.75 Dollars per Bushel June 17, 2019 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25

Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 Breakeven Ratio 2.20 2.10 June 17, 2019 2.00 1.90

"You will not receive payments if you do not plant," said Rob Johansson, USDA's chief economist. May 23, 2019

2019 US Corn Planted Acreage May 10 WASDE Report Illinois 92.8 million 82.8 to 87.8 million

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 4.75 2019 US Planted Acreage in June 28 USDA Report 4.50 Corn: 91.7 million +2.6m U.S-China negotiations Dollars per Bushel continue for remainder of Soybeans: 80.0 million 4.25 2018 -8.9m 4.00 3.75 3.50

Daily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019 4.75 2019 US Planted Acreage in August 10 Reports 4.50 Corn: 90.0 million +0.8m U.S-China negotiations Dollars per Bushel continue for remainder of Soybeans: 76.7 million 4.25 2018 -12.5m Corn Prevent Plant: 11.2 million 4.00 3.75 3.50

Market Surprise for USDA August Corn Crop Reports, 1965-2019 8 6 4 Surprise (%) 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Comparison of FSA and NASS Planted Acreage Estimates for Corn, 2011-2019* 98 96 94 92 Million Acres 89.942 NASS 90 88 87.065 FSA 86 84 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 *2019: NASS: Oct. 1; FSA: Nov.1 Year

Adding Up Corn and Soybean Planted and Prevent Plant Acres in 2018 and 2019 (million acres) 2018 2019 Difference Corn Planted 89.1 89.9 0.8 PP 0.9 11.4 10.5 Total 90.1 101.4 11.3 Soybeans Planted 89.2 76.5 -12.7 PP 0.3 4.5 4.2 Total 89.4 80.9 -8.5 Corn Planted 178.30 166.40 -11.9 and PP 1.21 15.89 14.7 Soybeans Total 179.5 182.3 2.8