Thursday 19 th January 2017 2017: A Survival Guide Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a changed world A BritainThinks Breakfast Briefing britainthinks.com BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017)
Here’s a recap of what happened on both sides of the pond… BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 2
A recap of what happened The votes in both countries revealed a generation gap: the older you were, the more likely you were to vote Trump or for Brexit Clinton Neither Trump Remain Leave 18-24 73% 27% 18-29 55% 37% 25-34 62% 38% 30-44 50% 42% 35-44 52% 48% 45-54 44% 56% 45-64 44% 53% 55-64 43% 57% 65+ 45% 53% 65+ 40% 60% New York Times, Nov 2016 Lord Ashcroft Polls, June 2016 But don’t forget that roughly 2 in 5 under-45s voted Trump in the US, and 25-34 year olds for Brexit in the UK BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 3
A recap of what happened Rural and small communities tended to vote Brexit and Trump, with big cities tending to vote for Clinton and to Remain in the EU Clinton Neither Trump Small city 34% 62% or rural Suburbs 45% 50% City over 59% 35% 50,000 New York Times, Nov 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 4
A recap of what happened Generally, those with fewer qualifications preferred Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US Remain Leave Clinton Neither Trump GCSE or lower 30% 70% High school or less 45% 51% Some college/associate A level 50% 50% 43% 52% degree Higher below 48% 52% College graduate 49% 45% degree Degree 68% 32% Postgrad study 58% 37% YouGov, June 2016 New York Times, Nov 2016 This difference was (even) more pronounced in the UK than in the US BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 5
A recap of what happened White voters were more likely to support Brexit and Trump, with support for both much lower among BAMEs Clinton Neither Trump White 37% 58% Black 88% 8% Hispanic 65% 29% Asian 65% 29% Other 56% 37% New York Times, Nov 2016 Lord Ashcroft Polls, June 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 6
A recap of what happened And attitudinally, Trump and Brexit voters were united in feeling more pessimistic than optimistic about the future of their country Clinton Neither Trump Life for future Americans will be… Net agreement that… Better than 59% 38% life today Worse than 31% 63% life today About the 54% 39% same Trajectory of the country… Right 90% 8% direction Lord Ashcroft Polls, June 2016 Off track 25% 69% New York Times, Nov 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 7
A recap of what happened But the two stories differ on turnout – and particularly on the mobilisation of disenchanted, apolitical non-voters 2.8 million non-voters swung it Democrat Republican Number Cruncher Politics, July 2016 RealClearPolitics BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 8
The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them – offer some big watch outs for navigating 2017… • Some are new slants on old issues • Some highlight things we already knew but had perhaps forgotten • Some of them feel new and very different to what’s gone before BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 9
#1 Check your bias BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 10
#1 Check your bias We were applying and projecting our own values both before the votes, when we chose to hear what we wanted to hear… Economists projecting their own The analysis & interpretation of the opinion uncertainty onto their predictions: polls in the run-up to the Referendum: 78% “In the end, we couldn’t predict public confidence at all. Because the vast majority of 63% economists thought that Brexit was a bad idea … they put their own views onto the population as a whole and thought the public would tighten 27% 22% their belts and spend less and that’s why you got the forecasts for an immediate downturn.” 10% 0% Chris Giles, Financial Times on More or Less Phone polls Online polls Remain leads Leave leads Ties YouGov, June 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 11
#1 Check your bias …and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’ “Trading is about stuff, but we don’t make goods any more, our REMAIN CAMPAIGN: ‘NORMAL’ VOTER: industry is in decline.” Starting from a place of “I don’t see how it “The EU buys over 50 per limited understanding of helps me – I’m not a cent of UK exports: 54% of not just trade, but also trader, I don’t have goods and 40% of services” business and the stocks and shares.” economy BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 12
#1 Check your bias …and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’ DEMOCRAT RESPONSE TO THE MISSED TRUMP MOVING ON THE TRUMP’S COMMENTS ON WOMEN: OPPORTUNITY? CONVERSATION: Family? Tradition? Gentlemanliness? BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 13
#1 Check your bias But we’re still doing it now, with an ongoing assumption that voters will ‘see sense’ eventually How many in the Westminster ‘bubble’ How voters – including many are describing Brexit: Remainers – are describing Brexit: "When I heard we had ‘gone Brexit’ I felt like England had won the World Cup!" of the British public think 68% that we should go ahead with Brexit YouGov, Nov 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 14
#2 Get yourself a “change [back]” message BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 15
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Both successful campaigns of 2016 were headed by a big, capacious message “We’ve got to stop this madness, cut all that red tape and regulation and take the reigns!” “Mass immigration is still hopelessly out of control and set to get worse if we remain inside the EU” BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 16
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’ BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 17
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’ “‘Go Global’ [was] a firm favourite for many years among a subset of MPs and Farage’s inner circle (Leave.EU adopted this as its first slogan) and a total loser with the public.” Dominic Cummings’s Blog BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 18
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message And which speak to a desire to change – while not pitching everyone into an uncertain future Both speak to a sense of nostalgia for the past… …but also a sense of direction and where they want to go, alluding to specific values and policies BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 19
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message “Nostalgia - it's delicate, but potent […] in Greek, ‘nostalgia’ literally means ‘the pain from an old wound’. It's a twinge in your heart far more powerful than memory alone” Donald (Draper) Mad Men, Season 1, Episode 13 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 20
#3 Start talking values (not just value) BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 21
#3 Start talking values (not just value) Both Trump and Brexit cut across many traditional socio economic divides Some leavers But a great are ‘left behind’ deal aren’t ‘left behind’ • Nothing to lose • Driven by desire • Economically for greater and culturally sovereignty challenged by • Driven by practical immigration ‘cutting red tape’ argument • Culturally challenged by immigration Resolution Foundation, July 2016 BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 22
#3 Start talking values (not just value) But it does seem that there are some really big values which unite some previously divergent groups Lord Ashcroft Polls, June 2016 Eric Kaufmanm for the Fabian Society BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 23
#3 Start talking values (not just value) And for the first time, the Trump and EU votes have given these heterogeneous groups clear tribes to belong to “The Trump rally was the most fun I have had in years. Trump would say. ‘What am I going to build?’ and we would say ‘A wall!’… It was fun to lighten up, to cheer along with everyone else, just like back in high school, when we would cheer that our teams were definitely going to win, even when they were bad” And an opportunity to define themselves against what they aren’t… Whether against the liberal, metropolitan elites of New York or Washington, London or Leeds or the ‘left behind’ of Sunderland or Scranton BritainThinks | Breakfast Briefing presentation (19 th January 2017) 24
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