2014 Elections: Education, Mood of the Electorate, and Midterm - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2014 Elections: Education, Mood of the Electorate, and Midterm Dynamics. July 10 th , 2014 Jonathan Voss jvoss@lakeresearch.com @jonovoss Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

 Midterm Dynamics – The Rising American Electorate  Mood of the Electorate  Key Economic Values  Political Dynamics  Battleground  General Attitudes Toward Education 2

Midterm Dynamics: Turnout and the Rising American Electorate

The Rising American Electorate — the groups that powered President Obama to victory in 2012 and 2008 • The Rising American Electorate (RAE) – Unmarried Women, Youths (ages 18-29), African Americans, Latinos, and all other members of racial and ethnic minorities (Census) races – now accounts for more than half of the voting eligible population in this country (53.5%). • While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, they still do not vote in proportion to their share of the population. 4

Strong majorities of the RAE voted for President Obama in 2012. 2012 Presidential Ballot Obama Romney 93 +36 +87 +23 +44 71 67 60 37 31 27 6 Unmarried Women 18-29 Year Olds African Americans Latinos 5 Source: CNN 2012 Exit Polls

Midterm Elections = Voter Drop-Off  Total drop-off: Est. 34 million votes  RAE Voter drop-off: Est. 21.8 million votes  Unmarried women drop-off: Est. 12.5 million votes  Non-RAE Voter drop-off: Est. 12.2 million votes Vote Eligible Population Distribution of Drop-Off Voters Non-RAE Non-RAE 46.5% 35.9% RAE RAE 53.5% 64.1% 6 Source: CPS November 2012 Supplement

Percentage of Voters Estimated to Drop-off in 2014 (compared to 2012 turnout) by Demographics 46.8% 36.2% 34.5% 34.1% 32.9% 17.5% 12.2 21.8 10.5 3.8 6.5 9.6 Million Million Million Million Million Million Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes Non-RAE RAE Unmarried Latino/a African Under 30 Women American 7 Source: Census Bureau, CPS November 2012 supplement

Unfortunately for Democrats, RAE voters are not as motivated to vote as voters overall Percent saying they are almost certain to vote in 2014 84 -18 66 RAE Non-RAE 8 Source: Democracy Corps/WVWVAF & VPC National Survey, April 2014

Pundits across the country are pointing out what a challenge this is for Democrats in 2014 • “The very structure of the 21st-century national Democratic coalition makes its November turnout predicament bad, perhaps historically so .” – John Harwood, The New York Times, March 31, 2014 • “In other words, the very groups Dems increasingly rely upon to win state and national elections are also the least likely to turn out in a midterm: Minorities, young voters, and unmarried women .” – Greg Sargent, The Washington Post, April 3, 2014 • “There’s never been a worse coalition for the purpose of a midterm election.” – David Wasserman, Cook Political Report , March 31, 2014 9

Putting this in practical terms: We project that in Florida, nearly 600,000 18-29 year olds who voted in 2012 will no vote in 2014. This is close to TEN TIMES Republican Governor Rick Scott’s margin of victory over Alex Sink in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Under 30 Voter drop-off: 52.3% Est. 590,000 votes 1,127,820 -590,000 557,106 61,550 Under 30s 2012 2014 Rick Scott-Alex Sink 10

Mood of the Electorate

Understanding Where Voters Are A narrow plurality of voters think the national economy has gotten worse over the last four years. Do you think that the national economy has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years? 41 37 20 Gotten Better Gotten Worse Stayed the Same 12 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Understanding Where Voters Are Voters are even less optimistic on their personal financial situation, with only one in four saying things have gotten better in the last four years. Do you think that your personal economic situation has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years? 39 34 26 Gotten Better Gotten Worse Stayed the Same 13 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Government and politicians spiked as the top problem facing America in the wake of the government shutdown, reaching levels not seen since Watergate, although it has declined in importance since then. 14 Source: Gallup

Economic perceptions over the past two years. During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse or stay about the same? Economy Will Get Better Economy Will Get Worse Economy Will Stay About the Same 60 2012 Election Fiscal Cliff Shutdown 49 48 48 48 47 47 46 50 45 45 42 42 41 38 38 40 34 42 32 29 27 36 27 27 35 26 26 26 30 33 32 31 20 19 28 18 17 25 25 20 24 24 24 21 9 18 10 0 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 15 Hart/McInturff. NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey.

Americans are intensely frustrated with their government and believe that the country is off on the wrong track. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? Government Shutdown 16 Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey. Conducted by Hart Research Associates & Public Opinion Strategies.

Key Economic Values

“ The government should be doing something to reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else .” All Voters RAE 69 59 39 27 50 41 26 16 Agree Disagree Agree Disagree 18 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

“ The economic rules in this country unfairly favor the rich .” All Voters RAE 70 64 34 28 50 44 15 10 Agree Disagree Agree Disagree 19 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

“ Middle class people have it the toughest in our economic system. There are assistance programs for the poor and tax breaks for the rich, but no real help for middle class people . ” All Voters RAE 75 72 25 22 48 44 8 8 Agree Disagree Agree Disagree 20 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

The RAE respond more strongly to the core Democratic message on the economy. 21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner /Democracy Corps/Women’s Voices Women Vote: April 2014, n=950 2012 voters, n=840 Likely 2014 voters

Political Dynamics

The President’s Approval Ratings Are Underwater (-13) 23

President Bush’s Approval 7/10/2006 (-18) 24

Obama receives negative job approval ratings across all major issues, with the lowest ratings on the federal budget and spending. Obama Issue Approval Net Approve Disapprove -6 -11 -12 -8 -15 -29 25 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Disapproval of Congress unites voters of both parties, but independents give the lowest approval ratings. How would you rate the job Congress is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing? Republicans Democrats Independents 26 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Democrats hold huge leads on Social Security, Medicare, and representing the middle class. Republicans hold a modest edge on the economy. I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in -- (ROTATE) • the Republican Party, OR • the Democratic Party – to deal with this issue. Here is the first one: Net Democrats Republicans +18 +14 +13 +10 +8 -4 27 March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16 th – March 20 th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Battleground

Democrats hold slim advantage in national head- to-head horse race. 29

Senate Battleground R’s Need 6 for Majority 30

Governor Battleground 31

Current Legislative Majorities D=18 R=26 32 http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx

Purple: States with Less than 20% Partisan Difference Green: Less than 20% in Both Chambers R=5, D=9 (Split=3) 33 http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx http://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2014

General Attitudes Toward Education