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2/21/19 Climate Change, Sustainable Agriculture, Cattle, Plant-based Diets Climate change is a reality What are the Issues and What are the Real Facts? Donald K. Layman, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus Department of Food Science & Human

  1. 2/21/19 Climate Change, Sustainable Agriculture, Cattle, Plant-based Diets … Climate change is a reality What are the Issues and What are the Real Facts? Donald K. Layman, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus Department of Food Science & Human Nutrition What is the impact of agriculture? University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Judging Fairness, Bias, and Profit Motives The debate: plant-based versus animal-based diets Plant-based agenda Animal-based agenda vegans & vegetarians (omnivores) paleo & keto “Environmental Vegetarianism” ---------------- PETA, HSUS, ASPCA Big Pharma Farmers • Animals are inefficient at converting Kellogg’s, General Mills National Dairy Council American Egg Board grains into food calories Pillsbury, Quaker Oats National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn Pepsi & Coke • World hunger could be eliminated if we Pork Board Dupont, Cargill, ADM stopped feeding grains to animals Bayer (Monsanto) DSM & BASF • Meat production is an elitist political Nestle, Kraft, Unilever decision Impossible Foods & Beyond Burger American Heart Association GHGE of food groups Protein Livestock are a major cause of climate change … produce over 30% of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGE) … but, livestock also produce over 1/3 of world’s protein United Nations: Carbohydrates Food & Agriculture Organization (2006) 1

  2. 2/21/19 The “ Trilemma ” The “ Trilemma ” How to balance … Must avoid … diet quality – agriculture production – environmental impact “unintended consequences” The “ Trilemma ” How should we balance Three assumptions that underpin current narrative: Debate: Defining these competing factors? Environmental 1) Ruminant animals are major contributors to climate change Impact 2) Protein consumption is excessive and can be replaced by carbohydrates (i.e. plant-based diet) ? Optimizing Optimizing 3) Lands used for cattle should be used for cropland Diets Land Use Layman Nutrition Today 53(4):160,2018 The “ Trilemma ” Debate: Defining Greenhouse Gas Emissions Environmental Impact (GHGE) GHGE = CO 2 + CH 4 + N 2 O Claim: ruminants are a major cause of climate change. How should we measure that? 2

  3. 2/21/19 The “ Trilemma ” Methane is a Greenhouse Gas … Debate: Defining Environmental Impact For agriculture, the approach being used is called: “Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)” … produced by microbes digesting plant materials Metric = GHGE/food calorie produced Sources of Methane Enteric Fermentation (Land Use Change & Forestry) 508 EU-28 3

  4. 2/21/19 World population distribution … 47% of world population lives in SE Asia Layman Nutrition Today 53(4):160,2018 Energy Usage residential USDA food intake data (www.USDA.gov/factbook/chapter2.pdf) 31% milk 26% red meat commercial industry United States World cattle inventory (2017): % of total x million head 1. India 30.4% 303 2. Brazil 22.6 226 3. China 10.1 100 4.6 million people 10 million cows 4. USA 9.4 93 60 million sheep 5. EU 8.9 89 - - Ranks 62 in GHGE 13. New Zealand 1.0 10 FAS/USDA, 2017 4

  5. 2/21/19 Claims that ruminants are a major cause of climate change Brazil has over 226 million cattle 80% destined for export to China and EU Since 1970, Brazil has destroyed more than 230,000 sq. miles of rainforest (for cattle and soybean production) 1800 there were ~80 million buffalo in U.S. U.N. estimates >30% of GHGE associated with 2018 there were ~93 million cattle clearing and burning of the rainforest Are ruminants really a major cause of climate change? The “ Trilemma ” Debate: Defining Environmental Impact Optimizing Diets 1800 there were ZERO cars and trucks in U.S. 2017 there were over 270 million Creating a Plant-based Diet: GHGE’s of food groups ! t e d i d e s a b - t n a p l e r o m a e t a e r c o t d e e n e W 5

  6. 2/21/19 Distribution of Food Calories in the U.S. = 70% of daily kcals = 30% of daily kcals Source: USDA Economic Research Service Importance of Protein in Diet Planning Guidelines from NIH & USDA (2010) 2015 Dietary Guideline Advisory Committee Report Highlights protein, reduces grains Plant-based diets dilute protein quality LCA models reduce protein intake and increase carbohydrates Lysine content of food proteins and calories required to meet daily amino acids need (3.4 g/day) Lys content Protein required g protein Kcals consumed (%: w/w) (g/day) 100 kcal wheat 2.6 131 3.5 3700 maize 4.0 88 2.5 3500 soy 5.1 69 7.5 920 beef 9.0 40 16.7 240 Peters et al, Elementa, 2016. doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000116 Layman Nutrition Today 53(4):160,2018 6

  7. 2/21/19 International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC “nutrient insecurity” Protein, Ca, Fe, Zn, A, D, E, B 12 , niacin, Essential Fatty acids Estrogenic activity of beef (ng/500g) Cows are “pumped full of hormones and antibiotics” Beef from non-implanted steer 5 – 8 Somatatropin (rbST) “growth hormone” used in dairy cows Beef from implanted steer 7 - 11 (peptide hormone not absorbed or functional in humans) Normal amounts produced PER DAY: pre-puberal children 41,000 ng/d Steroid hormones as implants in beef adult man 136,000 ng/d • estrogen in steers adult woman 513,000 ng/d • testosterone in heifers pregnant woman 19,600,000 ng/d The “ Trilemma ” Estrogenic activity of common foods (ng/500g) Debate: Defining Environmental Beef from non-implanted steer 5 – 8 Impact Beef from implanted steer 7 - 11 Milk (8 oz glass) ~23 Eggs (1 egg) ~65 Peas 2,000 Cabbage 12,000 Optimizing Optimizing Peanuts 100,000 Diets Land Use Pinto beans 900,000 Tofu >1,000,000 Soy flour >1,000,000 7

  8. 2/21/19 “Cattle are massive consumers of calories and water” Land-use Assumptions • Calories used by cattle can be equally used by humans Statement assumes all calories are equal: (grains: corn, soybeans and oats) primary “feedstock” for cattle are non-human editable biomass: grass, silage, wheat straw, cotton millings, distillers wastes, • Land used for feeding cattle should be converted to cultivating crops The water calculation includes the rain that falls on the grasslands (cattle require a lot of space) in North Dakota and Montana, the wheat fields in Nebraska, and the cotton fields in Mississippi Assumption is that cattle take calories from humans Distribution of Iowa Corn Use 10% 12% Et hano l fo r car s 5% Ch icken & P or k 53% 20% Be ef & Dair y > 85% of “feed” (metabolizable energy) consumed by cattle HFCS is not digestible by humans Expo rt s Cattle convert 0.6 g of poor quality plant proteins into 1.0 g of high quality protein Premise: All lands can be equally used for grazing or cropland 8

  9. 2/21/19 Over 50% of vegetables and fruits grown in U.S. come from a small region of California. The “ Trilemma ” ü Need for a global perspective … but with local solutions Plus, >50% of fruits and >20% Defining Environmental of vegetables consumed in the ü Diet quality; food systems Impact U.S. are imported. need “protein-centric” focus ü Continue to evaluate land use and production methods Optimizing Optimizing Diets Land Use Layman Nutrition Today 53(4):160,2018 The “ Trilemma ” How to balance … diet quality – agriculture production – environmental impact Thank you! Email: dlayman@illinois.edu Twitter: @donlayman 9

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