15/02/2018 The role of the science-policy-society interface in the 2030 Agenda New York, 25.09.2015 Journées Biennales des Géoscience et de l’Environnement, Université de Lausanne Peter Messerli, Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) Universität Bern 2. Transformations: intentional and evidence- based change possible? 1. Agenda 2030: 3. Knowledge: a vision for humanity what knowledge, in the Anthropocene? what science? 1
15/02/2018 1. Agenda 2030 – a vision for humanity in the Anthropocene? «Humans’ ability to do has outstripped its ability to understand» Sustain Su inable le Develop lopment – th the key concept t of f our ti times? Oxfam Ox am 2012 bas ased on Google NG NGrams 2
15/02/2018 Un Understa tanding g susta tainable deve velopment: t: example exa e of land use e changes es in Southea east Asia Th The pat ath to o the 2030 2030 Ag Agenda Milestones of Sustainable Development at Global Level 1962 Silent Spring 1982 International debt crisis > > 1967 Environmental Defense Fund > 1982 World Resources Institute > 1968 Biosphere UNESCO Conf. 1984 Drought in Ethiopia > > 1968 The Population Bomb > 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident > 1969 Friends of the Earth > 1987 Our Common Future > 1969 National Environmental Policy Act 1988 IPCC founded > > 1970 First Earth Day > 1991 Global Environment Facility > 1971 Greenpeace starts in Canada > 1992 Earth Summit > 1971 Polluter pays principle > 1995 World Trade Organization (WTO) > 1971 Only One Earth & Founex Report > 1995 World Summit for Social Development > 1972 Limits to Growth > 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women > 1972 UNCHE Stockholm > 2000 UN Millennium Development Goals > 1973 OPEC oil crisis > 2002 World Summit on S. Development > 1973 Chipko movement in India > 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force > 1974 Latin American World Model > 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment > 1975 Worldwatch Institute > 2006 Stern Review > 1976 UN-Habitat > 2008 Green economy ideas > 1977 UN Conference on Desertification > 2009 Planetary boundaries > 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident > 2009 Nobel Prize E. Ostrom > 1980 World Conservation Strategy > 2011 Climate change negotiations in Durban > 1980 Global 2000 report > 2012 Rio +20 > 6 Source: IISD, 2012 SD timeline 3
15/02/2018 Turning points in globalization Future Earth, 2017, based on Schellnhuber et al. 2016 Turning points in globalization Credit Suisse 2015. Global Wealth Report World Bank 2017. World Poverty in Absolute Number by Region 4
15/02/2018 Turning points in globalization 2. 2. Tran Transform ormat ation ons to o a a 2030 2030 Ag Agenda 5
15/02/2018 2030 2030 Agenda fo for Sustainable Development: Th Three transfo formative po potentia ials ls Le Blanc, 2015 1.Interlinkages: è Challenged Silos? è New Development Pathways! 2.Universality: è Autonomy of States? è Lever Across Place & Scale! 3.New Key Actors: è Development Authorities? è Innovative Partnerships! Th Theories of ch change? 6
15/02/2018 Theories of change Theories of change Examples Chaos Chaos low low Unknowable and • Melting of non-negotiable: polar ice shield neglect, ignore, • Alternative facts populism, • Fundamentalism violence • .. Wicked Wicked • Energy transition Complicated Contested Complicated and decarbonisation Societal agreement knowledge gaps: Societal agreement Contested facts: • Exit of nuclear • Sustainable rural-urban Learning processes with Negotiate, decisions power development stakeholders and researchers; Based on scenarios • Carbon tax • Equitable trade and Participatory negotiations of and majority rule: • Redistribution investment networks solutions guided by equity • … • Fighting corruption • … Simple Simple Uncontested facts: Complex • Recycling Complex cause-effect, • Nature protection Uncontested rational decisions, • Technical • Agro-ecology knowledge gaps: • Maintain social project planning innovations expertise, systemic • … cohesion analysis, modelling, • Equal opportunities hypotheses high • … high high low high low Factual certainty Factual certainty Messerli P. and S. Bieri. Forthcoming. Inspired by Stacey R. 1996. 3. 3. Know owledge for or Sus ustaina nable Deve velopment nt Goal oriented Navigating Sustainable and equitable trade-offs Knowledge development decision (sectors and making scale) 7
15/02/2018 Scale an Scale and co contex text m t matter atter! Source: World Bank indicators Teleco Te coupling in land system m sci cience ce fr from a a s sustainability p perspective 16 8
15/02/2018 Changing international science policy iniatives “We aim to accelerate joint learning and promote integrated approaches that address the interconnected economic, social, and environmental challenges confronting the world.” “The vision of Future Earth is for people to thrive in a sustainable and equitable world. Future Earth Strategic Research Agenda, 2014 9
15/02/2018 WWF: Making conservation profitable? ILC: Securing land rights for human wellbeing, food security and environmental stability? FAO: Climate smart, hihghly productive agriculture for poverty alleviation? Agriculture and land use change 70% of global fresh account for 32% water use for food GHG emissions production 70% additional calories needed by 2050 WWF: Making conservation profitable? ILC: Securing land rights for human wellbeing, food security and environmental stability? FAO: Climate smart, hihghly productive agriculture for poverty alleviation? 10
15/02/2018 Small-scale agriculture offers 1bn jobs Reduced meat consumption can decrease 29-70% of GHG emissions Women’s land rights significantly increase agricultural productivity WWF: Making conservation profitable? ILC: Securing land rights for human wellbeing, food security and environmental stability? FAO: Climate smart, hihghly productive agriculture for poverty alleviation? Example Sweden: Evidence-informed policy making Weitz et al, 2017 11
15/02/2018 Science-policy-society interfaces The Global Sustainable Development Report Buildin Bu ilding s g scien cience ce-po policy y interfaces Joint reflection on sust. values ? Co-production and social learning Boundary organizations as brokers Bi-directional knowledge sharing 12
15/02/2018 The need for contextualized and balanced perspectives on transformations to SD Source: Number of Researchers per million inhabitants by country, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, viewed 7th March, 2011 Co Conclusions 2. Transformations: intentional and evidence- based change possible? 1. Agenda 2030: 3. Knowledge: a vision for humanity what knowledge, in the Anthropocene? what science? 13
15/02/2018 Un Understa tanding g susta tainable deve velopment: t: exa example e of land use e changes es in Southea east Asia 14
15/02/2018 Th Theories of (g (great) ) transforma mations WGBU 2011, based on Grin et al. 2010 15
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