13 th Northeast Asia Economic Forum Seoul Korea, 17-18 September 2004 Session 3: Toward a Northeast Asian Energy Community “Commentary: IEA view on Northeast Asia” Norio EHARA Head, Non-Member Countries Division International Energy Agency INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
TPES in NE Asia: 2002 Mtoe � China Factor: 2 nd largest consumer of energy and oil, 1200 largest coal consumer � Diversity of energy supply 1000 � Regional mismatch = potential co-operation 800 600 400 200 0 China Russia Japan Korea DPRK Mongolia Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
TPES Projection in NE Asia 200 350 Japan/Australia/NZ Rep. of Korea 300 150 250 100 200 50 150 0 100 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other Mtoe 50 1400 0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other 1200 China 600 1000 Russia 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 Oil Gas Coal Neclear Other Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Other 2000 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Share of China in World Incremental Energy Demand: 2000-2030 100% 80% 43 50 53 55 per cent 60% 8 40% 30 29 41 49 20% 20 16 6 0% TPES Coal Oil Gas China OECD Non-OECD (excl. China) • China continues to be the 2 nd largest energy consumer • China will account for 20% of world incremental energy demand and for half of the increase in coal use over the next three decades. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Growing gap between Oil demand and Production in China Mb/d 14 300 Mtoe 10 mbd 12 (8%) 250 2000 => 2030 10 200 8 2 mbd (2.7%) 6 150 4 100 2 50 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 Transp. Electricity Industry Res&Comm Production Consumption INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Gas Supply in China ��� �� ��� ��� ��� �� ��������� ��� ��� �� �� �� �� �� � � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���������� ����������� ������������������������������ Although China’s gas production will rise rapidly, demand will be increasingly met by imports INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Gas Investment in China � ��##������##��������$��� � � � � ����! ����"���� ����"���� ����"���� %��#��������&���'�#������ (�)�������*������� +������������&�������� ,����������� ���������������������������������������������������������������������� ����������������������������������������������������������� INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Russia Seeking a New Energy Trading Partner - European Market : well-developed but transit is major concerns. - Northeast Asian Market: high potential but undeveloped. - Gasprom Strategy affects the development of gas and oil pipeline development? Current Market Arctic Ocean I RE . Norwegian Sea U NITED K INGDOM N ORWAY S WEDEN N ETH . D EN . New Frontier F INLAND Baltic Sea G ERMANY Yamburg 167.9 E STONIA C Z . P OLAND R EP . L ATVIA L ITHUANIA A UST . S LOV . H UNG . Nadym Urengoy B ELARUS U KRAINE 73.6 193.3 R OMANIA M OLDOVA 26.9 Tarkosale Planned LNG Surgut 11.1 Terminal Yurubcheno- Noyabrsk Tokhomo 48.9 Black Orenburg 24.1 Sea Kovykta Astrakhan Daqing Astrakhan 9.8 G EORGIA Sea T URKEY K AZAKHSTAN of Japan A RMENIA J APAN A ZERBAIJAN S YRIA N ORTH M ONGOLIA K OREA Shah-deniz R EP . OF U ZBEKISTAN K OREA T URKMENISTAN I RAQ Yellow K YRGYZSTAN Sea C HINA Dovletabad I RAN Tarim Basin T AJIKISTAN S AUDI INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE A RABIA Ordos Basin A FGHANISTAN
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�� ���!�"������ # ��!���!� $����������� • China and Russia agreed to increase oil supply by railway: 3.5 mt/y 15 mt/y by 2006 � Gazprom Gazprom and and Rosneft Rosneft: : Taishet Taishet- - Nahodka Nahodka: : Gazprom Gazprom and and Rosneft Rosneft : : Taishet Taishet - - Nahodka Nahodka : : 4,130km : 4,130km : $5B $5B – $10B : $10B : 1mbd 1mbd 4,130km : 4,130km : $5B $5B $10B : $10B : 1mbd 1mbd � YUKOS, TNK YUKOS, TNK- -BP, BP, Sibneft Sibneft: : Angarsk Angarsk- -Da Daq qin ing g: : YUKOS, TNK YUKOS, TNK - - BP, BP, Sibneft Sibneft : : Angarsk Angarsk - - Da Da q q in in g g : : 2,200 km : 2,200 km : $2B 2,200 km : 2,200 km : $2B $2B $2B : : : 400 : 400 400 400- -600 - - 600 600 600 kbd kbd kbd kbd INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electric Power Link Design in Northeast Asia Amur Irkutsk Russia Sakhalin Far East Mongolia Shenyang China DPRK Beijing Far East Electricity Network Japan Tokyo ROK East Siberia Line Hydro Power Natural Gas or Nnuclear INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Stages of Energy Projects in NE Aisa Stages of Energy Projects Current Stage of Projects in NE Asia 1. Concept building : NE Asia Electricity Network 2. Political endorsement and political framework building: Pacific Oil Pipeline 3. Technical and financial feasibility studies: NE Asia Gas Pipeline 4. Regulatory approvals from authorities: routing, health- safety- environmental (HSE) impacts, etc. 5. Financing 6. Physical construction: Sakhalin 2 LNG 7. Production and pipeline operation and management: WE Gas Pipeline, Sakhalin 2 Oil INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Challenge1: Lack of Infrastructure and Investment: 2000 ~ 2030 2500 $2253 billion Billion Dollars 2000 Electricity $1050 billion $1000 billion 1500 Coal 1000 Gas Oil 500 0 China Russia OECD Pacific INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Challenge 2: Regulatory Reforms & Market Restructuring � Cross-border oil & gas projects pass through multiple countries � A Clear and stable regulatory framework exists in NE Asia? � APEC recommendations and experience of Energy Charter � Sakhalin sparks the Japanese energy companies? INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Challenge 3: Overall Plans & Studies � Need more information: reserves, markets, technical & economic feasibility, etc. � Master plans help policy makers’ involvement in the regional framework � F/S for Kovykta gas project � NEAREST Study by KERI � Gas Demand and Market Study by Northeast Asia Gas and Pipeline Forum INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Toward a NE Asia Energy Community � Cross-border projects = a number of concerned parties � Strong need for international alignment to avoid obsolescent bargaining � Areas beyond the capacity of private sector: � incompatibility between the laws � investment conditions among nations � Political changes � Regional issue needs regional approach � Regional co-operation framework to promote or trouble shoot INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
OLADE Mexico, Peru, Chile US, Canada, Australia & NZ IEA ASEAN+3 Japan, Korea ASEAN European Members China (ACE, ASCOPE) EU Russia APEC-EWG(APERC) N.B. UNs, IFIs, national India & private regional organisations are not included. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Government Role in NE Asia � A convener to encourage the alignment of interests � Need clear definition: Primary role of private sector � Major roles: to establish a clear, transparent and predictable framework for private investment conditions � To establish institutional and regulatory framework for production, trade and transport � Clearly defined energy policy INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA’s Role in NE Asia � IEA Ministers’ encouragement in April 2003 � Start of NE Asia POW in 2003 � IEA/KEEI conference on NE Asia energy security and regional cooperation in March 2004 � IEA/KERI/APERC/Vostokenergo symposium on electricity network in May 2004 � POW in 2005/2006 � Oil and gas study in NE Asia � Contribution to HR training : energy experts and data experts INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
www.iea.org INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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