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1 INTRODUCTION Indias GDP growth since the 90 s has been led by - PDF document

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1 INTRODUCTION Indias GDP growth since the 90 s has been led by services sector Service sector growth has increased from 8.0% in 2012- 13 to 9.1% in 2013-14 and further to 10.6% in 2014-15. Currently India estimates Wholesale

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  2. INTRODUCTION • India’s GDP growth since the 90 ’s has been led by services sector • Service sector growth has increased from 8.0% in 2012- 13 to 9.1% in 2013-14 and further to 10.6% in 2014-15. • Currently India estimates Wholesale Price Index which covers only goods and not services • However the Consumer Price Index in India covers some services like housing, education, health etc. but at B to C and not B to B level. • Decision to include service sector prices in WPI/ PPI in India taken in principle • Currently development of business service sector price indices is at an experimental stage • Efforts are on to include both B to B and B to C services 2

  3. Growth rate of service sector in India Sector/ y-o-y growth rate (%) Indicator 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 GDP at constant prices 9.1 6.7 4.9 6.6 7.2 (base year: 2011-12) 9.8 6.6 8 9.1 10.2 Services 3

  4. Name of Service Turnover statistics Price statistics Rail transport Yes Yes Air transport Yes Yes Port Services Yes Yes Banking Services Yes Yes Insurance Service Yes Yes Postal Service Yes Yes Telecommunication Service Yes Yes Road transport (Freight) Service No Yes Trade Services No Yes Business Services No Yes Health Services Yes No Education Services Yes No 4

  5. CURRENT STATUS OF DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS SERVICE PRICE INDEX IN INDIA FOR INCLUSION IN WPI/PPI • So far five business service indices have been compiled on an experimental basis 1. Rail 2. Air transport 3. Banking 4. Postal 5. Telecom • Fixed base Laspeyres ’ method has been used in all cases as is currently being done for Wholesale Price Index estimation 5

  6. OVERVIEW OF PROPOSED SERVICE PRICE INDEX All indices are expected to be integrated as per the following framework: 6

  7. Background • MoSPI to prepare test indices for each sector • Methodology to be handed over to the concerned administrative ministry/office for future compilation • Base year 2004-05 for the sectors for which test indices already prepared • For others base year to be taken as 2011-12, the base year for GDP; BY to be changed whenever BY for GDP is changed. • Periodicity: Quarterly but can be shifted to six- monthly/annual if data is NA quarterly • Methodology used : Laspeyre

  8. RAILWAY SERVICE PRICE INDEX Sub Section Division Group Class Class NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC NIC ISIC (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) H - H - 49 - Land 49 - Land 491 - 491 - 4911 - 4911 - 49110 - Transpo Transpo transpor transpor Transport Transpor Passenger Passenger Passenge rt and rt and t and t and via t via rail rail r rail Storage Storage transpor transpor railways railways transport transport, transport t via t via interurban pipelines pipelines 4912 - 4912 - 49120 - Freight Freight rail Freight rail transport rail transport transport 8

  9. ISSUES Administrative Ministry / Services Organization / Problem / Status other possible data sources Variables used : Rail Railway Board Freight Data: Tonne Kms of major Service, commodities transported Monthly Passenger data: Passenger kms travelled Index under different classes. Weights : Total revenue from passenger traffic by class of travel) and freight transport (by type of material) Challenges: 1.Freight Data comes in batches of 3-4 months. Mechanism to get regular monthly data is to be established. 2.Passenger Data is not provided citing commercially sensitive nature of the data. 9

  10. AIR SERVICE PRICE INDEX Section Division Group NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) H - H - 51- Air 51- Air 511- 511- Transpo Transport transport transport Passenger Passenger rt and and Storage air transport air Storage transport 512- Freight 512- air transport Freight air transport 10

  11. AIR SERVICE PRICE INDEX Class Sub Class NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) NIC (2008) 5110- Passenger air 5110- Passenger air 51101 - Passenger transport transport Airways 5120- Freight air 5120 - Freight air 51201 - Freight air transport transport transport services 11

  12. ISSUES Administrative Ministry / Services Organization / other Problem / Status possible data sources Variables used : Air DGCA, M/o of Civil Freight Data: Tonne Kms of cargo Transport Aviation transported by different airlines Monthly Passenger data: Passenger kms travelled Index by different airlines Weights : Airlines wise gross operating revenue Challenges : • NSOPs not included • Data on passengers in different classes not available 12

  13. POSTAL SERVICE PRICE INDEX Sub Section Division Group Class Class NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) H- H- 53 - 53 - 531- 531- 5310 - 5310- 53100 - Transpor Transpor Postal Postal Postal Postal Postal Postal Postal t and tation and and activities activities Activities activities Activities Storage and courier courier (National Storage activities activities Postal Activities 13

  14. ISSUES Administrative Ministry / Services Organization / other Problem / Status possible data sources Variables used : Department of Posts Postal Service, 1.Unregistered Mail – Inland, (excluding private Foreign courier services) 2.Registered Mail - Inland, Foreign 3.Premium Products Weights: Revenue from each service item. Services Excluded : Private. Courier, Financial services, Pension payments, sale of revenue stamp, money transfer, philately etc Data Availability : Annual Test Indices Prepared. Challenges: Services included for ISP accounts 14 for 47% of total revenue.

  15. TELECOM (CELLULAR) SERVICE PRICE INDEX Section Division Group Class Sub Class NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) J - J - 61- 61- 611 -Wired 611 -Wired 6110- 6110- 61101- Activities Informat Informa Teleco Teleco telecomm telecommu Wired Wired of basic telecom ion and tion and mmuni mmuni unications nications telecomm telecommu services: Commun Commu cations cations activities activities unications nications telephone ication nication activities activities 61104 - Activities of providing internet access by the operator of the wired infrastructure 612- 612- 6120- 6120- 61201 - activities Wireless Wireless Wireless Wireless of internet telecomm telecommu telecomm telecommu access by unications nications unications nications operator of activities activities activities activities wireless infrastructure 15

  16. TELECOM (CELLULAR) SERVICE PRICE INDEX Group Class Sub Class NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) NIC (2008) ISIC (2008) NIC (2008) 61202 - Activities of maintaining and operating paging, cellular and other telecommunication activities 61209 - Activities of other wireless telecommunication activities 613- Satellite 613- Satellite 6130 - Satellite 6130 - Satellite 61301 - Activities of telecommunicat telecommunicat telecommunic telecommunicatio internet access by ions activities ions activities ations ns activities operator of the satellite activities infrastructure 16

  17. ISSUES Administrative Ministry / Services Problem / Status Organization / other possible data sources Variables used : Telecommunication, TRAI No. of users of Quarterly Index CDMA and GSM services Challenges: Non-availability of data for wire line services. 17

  18. Banking Service Index 18

  19. Section Division Group Class Sub Class NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC NIC ISIC (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) (2008) NIC (2008) K – K – 64 - 64 - 641 - 641 - 6419 - 6419 - 64191 - Financia Financial Financia Financial Monetary Monetary Other Other Monetary l and and l service service intermedi intermedi monetar monetar intermediat Insuran Insuranc activities activities, ation ation y y ion of ce e , except except intermed intermed commercial Activitie Activitie insuranc insuranc iation iation banks, s s e and e and saving pension pension banks, funding funding postal saving banks and discount houses 649 - 649 - 6499 - 6499 - 64990 - Other Other Other Other Other financial financial financial financial financial service service service service service activities, activities, activities, activities, activities, except except except except except insurance insurance insuranc insuranc insurance and and e and e and and pension pension pension pension pension funding funding funding funding funding activities activities activities, activities, activities 19

  20. ISSUES Administrative Ministry / Organization / Services Problem / Status other possible data sources Banking RBI Index constructed for all Scheduled Service, Commercial Banks including Regional Rural Quarterly Banks based on their balance sheet data. Index Methodology: Income Generated Method a) Fee Income received for direct services b) FISIM method for intermediary services Challenges : Data for Local Area Banks and Cooperative Banks not available. But SCBs and RRBs account for 93% in assets, advances and deposits of banking system 20

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