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ALL OUR PROBLEMS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA COMPLEXITY THEORY: THE SIMPLE ANSWER TO Peter Gminger, UKMOD 16ISMOIc September1998 +- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA A B. THE LATEST FASHION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA PRESENTATION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA theory is the latest fashion zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA bb If it‘s so promising. then we need to zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA m THE VIEWPOINT OF THIS confidence that research money s p t zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA * in defence *My gripe is nof with complexity theory as Complexit?. catastrophe theory, fuzzy sets, such, but wifh its application to defence analysis. follo%&g chaos etc analysis * h o w more * In fact, of the various papers and hovks abaut it, but if we must also have at least some - consulted for this presentation, the liest, on it mill Kauttinan’s excellent “At Home in the not be wasted Universe”, contains much innovative and However. the evidence 10 provide this confidence is pretty thin i n the defence analysis area impressive material, mostly applicable to biological areas

- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA EMERGENT BEHAVIOUR I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 7.r- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA The fact that complex high-level behaviour zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Any particiilar instance of real complex high-level behaiour zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA * zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 1 - 1 he hope seems fo ce%iicrath‘$as ’9‘ .................... * If zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA < ‘ In IhennnQ!namlcs. can arise from - However. this remains to he pro\ed: hoth thnod!namics the same high-level hehaviour emerges lo a great extent simple low-level rules does not necessarily mean that: regardless of the detailed nature of low-level interactions musf in fact have arisen from siniple lo\v-le~d niles; or that and the systems so far studied by complexity theorists are * Siiple low-le\r,l niles can be fouiid which \\ill generate an). givm - \Ve already know that Lanchester equations represent only form ofcomplex hgh-level behaiiour. or even that actually governed hy much simpler rules than those which specific real complex high-le\d behabiioiir does irifncf some apply to military systems - A much richer range of complex high-level behaviours aiise froin simple low-level niles, it w be possible to deduce i l l what these niles are (cf trapdoor eiinyticii algoritlmis) a v-crude approximation lo real combat 9 The validity of any specific variety ofhigh-level behaxiour must clearly be possible from complex low-level nrles and must he backed up hy a caucal model or a proof (cf interactions, which occur abundantly in systems involving statistical mechanics), and preferably historical data as human beings well: an act of faith is not sufficient hd 1 1 \b.<./ REAL COMPLEXITY IN COMPLEXITY THEORY AS - - Conflict is very messy. with many interactions in which . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A , . , . i i Qualitative understanding of system behaviour is most effects have a large random component, and for not sufficient: quantitative prediction and control, - In simulation we try to get away with as simple low-level which simple rules are v v unlikely to be a sufficient - consistent with historical data, are required if explanation analysis is to be useful - The idea that simple rules will nevertheless be sufficient to Kauffman doesn’t seem to offer much hope from rules as possible, but they still end up being pretty complex the point of view of prediction and control. - The idea that one of a small set of simple rules “will do” in replicate any specific form of complex behaviour is pretty There’s a definite fatalistic element in what he has incredible to say, in that complex systems have decentralised “minds of their own’’ which are specifically order to generate any required high-level behaviour is even resistant to control more incredihle COMPLEXITY THEORY AS A NEW FIELD - It is too easy to make a name in a new field - It should have a catchy title .................. - Before long, really hard work will be required to make - It should be quite difficult to understand I , . , . .................... - It should contain an element of truth - It should promise a (magic) solution to many of our - By analogy with catastrophe theory, for example. it would significant progress, at which point I suspect there will he a mysterious migration to another fashionable topic - It should b problems. - If needs lo be new and diFTermf be v q useful to have a topological theorem identifying all e . revolutionary: - It must sweep away all exist& approaches possible tlpes of interaction between different classes of command agent. This would be a great achievement. but it would be very difficult. and even if it were achieved. it is c However, this is also a major weakness. since not o docs it fail n l y not clear how mainstream defence analysis would be to take advantage of prcbioim work buf it implies significant affected climige

zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA WHAT WILL BE THE NEXT zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA MACINTOSH QUOTES 1: SERIOUS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA "Perplexity zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA How about zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I d A d * c MISUNDERSTANDINGS "Huma zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I " * Classical "ideal maths" is irrelevant. because it has been "dealt massive blows'^ ." zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA by Gddel, Turing and Chaitin Theory"? * "Information cannot be valued fhr quantic hut only quali iy.." ns... make computationally * undecidable decisions.. .everyday.. /d MYSTICISM & MODERN MACINTOSH QUOTES 1 1 : THE ?:if SCIENCE/PSEUDOSCIENCE ~~~ OMPLEXITY THEORY AND THE CONCLUSIONS RESEARCH FUND-HOLDER -Clarke's Law: Sufficiently advanced - science is indistinpishahle from magic Gresbam's Law: Bad OR forces out good OR -Most research fund-holders in this sort of area are scientists themselves: they should remember their roots, and avoid being conned by glib salesmanship