YA Holding AB (publ) Investor presentation Q2 2017 Jan Larsson CEO Mikael Vesterlund CFO September 1, 2017
Market situation Continued focus on jobs and integration 2
Low number of asylum seekers to Sweden, but ~2,000 people get work permits and enter labour force each month 45000 200000 Continued stable inflow to the 180000 labour market 40000 160000 In the quarter ~6.500 people were 35000 140000 granted permission to stay 30000 Still close to 100 000 pople in 120000 25000 migration system 100000 20000 Handling time has stabilized on 80000 approximately 450 days 15000 60000 Proportion of applications that are 10000 40000 granted is approximately 50% 5000 20000 Half of people in reception 0 0 system in age 20-59 2014-01 2014-03 2014-05 2014-07 2014-09 2014-11 2015-01 2015-03 2015-05 2015-07 2015-09 2015-11 2016-01 2016-03 2016-05 2016-07 2016-09 2016-11 2017-01 2017-03 2017-05 2/3 from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Somalia. In reception system Applications for asylum Granted Source: The Swedish Migration Board, Migrationsverket 3
Steady unemployment levels, despite increase in the number of jobs in the economy Large need for matching and training Unemployment Sweden 2014-2017 for immigrants: • 5,034,000 people employed, up 99,000 450 000 Open In programmes from Q2 2016. 400 000 350 000 • Total unemployment increases 300 000 somewhat due to immigration inflow to labour market 250 000 200 000 • 350,000 people unemployed (7.2%). 150 000 60,000 in establishment programme 100 000 • Youth unemployment down to 9.9% from 50 000 11.1 a year ago. 20% (11,000) in 0 establishment programme • 45,000 unemployed were employed in Source: The Swedish Public Employment Service, Arbetsförmedlingen the month, only 2,500 from establishment programme 4
Government forecast decreasing unemployment Finance minister Magdalena Andersson’s comments on the forecast Forecast unemployment rates ” We will be able to present more large and 7 7 important reforms to strengthen jobs and 6 6 growth in Sweden – but also reduce 5 5 inequality ” 4 4 ”Young and middle aged should educate to 6,9 6,6 maintain competences that lead to 3 3 5,9 5,9 5,9 employment. Old people without education 2 2 should get subsidised employments ” 1 1 ” We diverge from other forecasts since we know what reforms and actions there will be 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 in the budget bill” Previous estimates New forecast ” We need to do more to support foreigners, especially newly arrived, to become employable ” 5
YA’s education leads to employment Share employed 180 days after course Share employed 90 days after course 8 weeks gliding average 8 weeks gliding average +28% +14% 96 88 In profession: In profession: 89 82 81 84 80 Not Not 77 77 Partly 75 9% 17% 73 72 5% 16% Partly 67% 86% Totally Totally Workday: Workday: Part time Part time 9% 18% 82% 91% Full time Full time v24 v26 v28 v30 v32 v34 v24 v26 v28 v30 v32 v34 6
Good results across industries and regions Share employed after 90 days, Last 16 weeks By industry By region 100 98 96 92 87 86 83 80 78 78 79 78 78 Avg 82 77 74 71 71 71 Sthlm / Gotland N Mälardalen S Mälardalen / Ö-götland Gbg / Halland NV Götaland V Svealand Skåne Småland / Blekinge S Norrland N Norrland Bygg Maskinförare Fastighet Industri Tillverkning Transport Vård Övrigt 7
Volumes of labour market education are still decreasing, but YA’s volumes are higher than a year ago Total number of AUB participants down 7% AUB participants in YA- courses up 18% compared to June 2016 Potential to add to both YA’s and total as transport educations start in September and October Professional and study preparatory courses are appealed against based on the very low winning prices 8
Financial information A quarter subdued by start-up costs 9
Profit & loss Q2 2017 Revenues were SEK 93.8 Subdued results due to start-up investments million (100.0) in the quarter. The average number of students in AUB has been 1732 25 (1624) for the period. 20 The decline versus prior year is due to terminated business 15 within truck/bus. 10 EBITDA amounted to SEK 3.0 5 million (10.0) 0 15:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2 -5 -10 EBITDA EBIT 10
Normalized EBITDA EBITDA (SEK million) EBITDA Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2016 (SEK million) Reported EBITDA 21.0 10.0 2.0 7.6 6.1 3.0 Non recurring cost +3.0 Other income Normalized EBITDA 21.0 13.0 2.0 7.6 6.1 3.0 11
Balance sheet and cash flow Cashflow Q2 2017 Cash balance amounted to SEK (SEK millions) Apr-Jun 12.4 million (28.8) at the end of the quarter. EBITDA 3.0 Cash flow amounted to SEK 7.6 Change in working capital 23.6 million (8.0). Cash flow from operating activities Cash flow before interest and taxes 26.6 amounted to SEK 18.3million Interest paid -7.0 (11.9). Income tax paid -0.8 Change in Working capital was Cash flow from operating activities 18.8 SEK 23.6 million (8.6). Net debt amounted to SEK 374.1 Cash flow from investing activities -1.0 million (370.7). Cash flow from financing activities -10.2 Cash flow for the period 7.6 12
Covenants Actual Target Leverage (Net debt/EBITDA) 19.9x <3.0x Interest coverage (EBITDA/Net finance charges) 0.7x >2.5x 13
Delivery Profitable Growth Strategy 14
Agreed start dates in Transport educations Start date for test and assessment module Falun Västerås Örebro Stockholm Uddevalla Uppsala Luleå Still to be decided in: Falun Umeå Nyköping Malmö Sundsvall Växjö Gävle Bus Göteborg Skövde Falkenberg Östersund Jönköping Karlstad Karlskrona Kristianstad 7 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 Augusti September Oktober Still to be decided in: Göteborg Falun Gävle Luleå Truck Visby Karlstad Sundsvall Helsingborg Uppsala Östersund Kristianstad Norrköping Stockholm Gällivare
In addition to Transport Contract value change 2016-17 >60 ongoing start-up projects Course Place Start Up and running 225 25 TAXI 8-10 places 1/3 1/1-18 STOM* Örebro 1/4 1/9 YH** 10 starts Distance 11/9 1/10 225 300 Construct. Borlänge 19/6 1/10 Ins. Fitter Gävle 11/9 1/11 STOM* Falun 1/8 1/11 STOM* Malmö 1/7 1/11 30 Bus 7 places SEP ~1/12 -150 130 Construct. Umeå 19/9 1/1-18 STOM* Gävle 1/10 1/1-18 -150 STOM* Sundsvall 1/10 1/1-18 STOM* Växjö 1/10 1/1-18 Lost spring Rewon Adjustments Re-won Adjustments Estimated STOM* Kristianstad 1/10 1/1-18 2016 2016 2016* 2017 2017** contract value Bus 7 places OCT 1/1-18 growth Truck 6 places SEP 1/1-18 Vux Constr Örebro SEP 1/1 -18 *Adjustments 2016 primarilly due to lower than expected volumes Bus 7 places NOV 1/2 -18 in Yrkesvux contracts and vehicle mechanics Truck 7 places NOV 1/2-18 ** Adjustments 2017: Lower vux volumes due to start of AUB Prof. Swed 4 regions 1/10 1/4 -18 Transport and risk of loosing parts of engineer module education *STOM = Support and matching **YH = Vocational university 16
Thank you! jan.larsson@ya.se mikael.vesterlund@ya.se 17
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