YA Holding AB (publ) Investor presentation Q1 2017 Jan Larsson CEO Mikael Vesterlund CFO Presentation made June 1 2017
Participants CEO CFO Jan Larsson Mikael Vesterlund 2
Inflow of asylum seekers continue to be low, but a steady inflow from stock to labour market Continued stable inflow 45000 200000 to labour market: 2.300 granted • 180000 40000 permissions in March, 160000 35000 back to ”normal” pace 140000 30000 • Average handling time in 120000 25000 March was 414 days, 100000 20000 increasing with 22 days 80000 in one month 15000 60000 • Proportion granted 10000 40000 excluding Dublin cases 5000 20000 etc down to 56% 0 0 2014-01 2014-03 2014-05 2014-07 2014-09 2014-11 2015-01 2015-03 2015-05 2015-07 2015-09 2015-11 2016-01 2016-03 2016-05 2016-07 2016-09 2016-11 2017-01 2017-03 In reception system Applications for asylum Granted Right hand scale, stock Left hand scale, per month Source: The Swedish Migration Board, Migrationsverket 3
Unemployment up for the first time since 2013 Continued need for Unemployment Sweden 2014-2017 matching and training: 450 000 • Unemployment increased Open In programmes in April for the first time 400 000 since 2013 (364.000, 350 000 +4.000) • 4.0% unemployment 300 000 among born in Sweden. 22.1% among born abroad. 250 000 • Unemployment down 200 000 among those born i Europe. 150 000 • Increases among people 100 000 born outside of Europe (169’, +17’) 50 000 • Youth unemployment 0 continues down to 10,2% jan mar maj jul sep nov jan mar maj jul sep nov jan mars maj juli sep nov jan mars • Participants in establishing 2014 program up to 76.000, 2015 2016 62.000 unemployed Source: The Swedish Public Employment Service, Arbetsförmedlingen 4
Huge deficit of skilled labour.. Total private sector • 38% of Swedish Lack of labour (share yes-answers) business answer yes to whether they experience shortage of labour • Demand for skilled labour higher than ever after the IT crises in 2007 Source: Konjunkturinstitutet
…in both services and manufacturing Private services Manufacturing industry, Largest obstacle for operations Lack off… Low demand Blue collar workers Lack of labour Technical white collar staff
Volume of people in labour market education seems to have stabilized Source: The Swedish Public Employment Service, Arbetsförmedlingen • AUB market stabilize at low levels historically • YA’s volumes and market share is recovering 7
Budget frames for unemployment activity confirms role of education in reducing skills deficit 60 50 7,8 7,7 7,2 7,7 7,4 7,4 6,9 40 30 23,9 24,1 26,3 30,4 31,3 30,4 30,1 20 10 17,8 17 15,1 12,2 9,6 9,4 8,7 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AF förvaltningskostnader Bidrag till arbetslöshetsersättning och aktivitetsstöd Arbetsmarknadspolitiska program och insatser Source: tate budget, ”Utgiftsområde 14” 8
Profit & loss Q1 2017 Revenues were SEK 90.6 million (112.4) in the quarter. The average number of students in AUB has been 1433 (1817) for the period. The decline versus prior year is due to terminated business within truck/bus. EBITDA amounted to SEK 6.1 million (21.0) 9
Normalized EBITDA EBITDA Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 (SEK million) Reported EBITDA 21.0 10.0 2.0 7.6 6.1 Non recurring cost +3.0 Other income Normalized EBITDA 21.0 13.0 2.0 7.6 6.1 10
Balance sheet & cash flow Q1 2017 Cash balance amounted to SEK 4.8 million (20.8) at the end of the quarter, bank overdraft facility (SEK 30 million) used to SEK 8,6 million. Cash flow amounted to SEK -17.6 million (2.2). Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK -24.0 million (10.5). Change in Working capital was SEK -22.4 million (8.9). Net debt amounted to SEK 383.0 million (380.8). 11
Cash flow Q1 2017 (SEK millions) Jan-Mar EBITDA 6,1 Change in working capital -22,4 Cash flow before interest and taxes -16,3 Interest paid -7,3 Income tax paid -0,4 Cash flow from operating activities -24,0 Cash flow from investing activities -4 Cash flow from financing activities 10,4 Cash flow for the period -17,6 12
Covenants Actual Target Leverage (Net debt/EBITDA) 13.2x <3.0x Interest coverage (EBITDA/Net finance charges) 1.1x >2.5x 13
After end of quarter: Bus and truck driver tenders resulted in higher volumes than in 2015 • Turn-over value of Estimated regains : more than Loss Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 SEK250m yet to 300 285 Insulation be started Fitter 250 • Start-up costs will Truck affect results in all 200 of 2017 150 • Bus education in Bus Östersund is 100 80 appealed, as is +205 50 Yrkessvenska. 0 Approx SEK50- • +85 100m of turn over Truck +30 -50 value not secured +30 -100 due to court Bus +70 -125 processes or -150 lower than expected student inflow 14
Thank You! 15
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