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y p o c t o n o d e Market or governmental intervention: which topics remain U unsolved in the climate agreement T Energydays, 28/03/2019 Laetitia Ouillet Strategic Area Energy Climate agreement: What was his plan? y p o c t o


  1. y p o c t o n o d e Market or governmental intervention: which topics remain U unsolved in the climate agreement T Energydays, 28/03/2019 Laetitia Ouillet Strategic Area Energy

  2. Climate agreement: What was his plan? y p o c t o n o d e U T 2 Energydays

  3. Let’s summarise it down to two graphs y p o c t o n o d e U T Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen 3 Energydays

  4. What will happen to energy supply? y • Wind offshore grows from 1-14GW in p o 12 years (NL). UK hopes to have c reached this capacity level in 2022 t o already. n • Solar and onshore wind will be regional o d discussion (what’s a region?) e • On-roof solar spinning out of (their) U control T • No subsidy. Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen 4 Energydays

  5. Offshore wind y p • The Netherlands has o great ambitions c t • But the market is more o n than that: position o Germany and the UK d • Some perspective on a e subsidy stop U T 5 Energydays

  6. y p o c t o n o d e U T No subsidy: but why? 6 Energydays

  7. On-roof solar y p • Not possible to steer, although one o thinks one can c t • Different business case, no rational o n economic discussion o • Planning of regional network operators d • Capacity connection value: where is the e U menu? T 7 Energydays

  8. Existing production park • Coal plants: 4,6 GW (minus 680MW) y p • Conversion:yes/no/who pays? o c • Arbaheat (TNO, Engie). Combining t hydrogen to reduce the value loss o n (hydrogen cofiring 15-20%) o • Who is negotiating with whom? d Kolenwet e U T 8 Energydays

  9. Security of supply • The Belgian case y p • Hinckley point: Nuclear is cheap? (92,5 o GBP/MWh: 2x last tender price offshore c wind NL (47 EUR/MWh) t o n • Nederlandse laissez-faire, with a strong o role/room for the opinion and vision of d TenneT e • Role NL as export-country difficult to U T combine with CO2 reduction ambitions 9 Energydays

  10. The Netherlands: Island or new energy hub? Norway 20 bn m3 Norway Denmark Gas y 0,7 GW in 2030 0,7 GW in 2030 Electricity p Heat o Russia (Nord United c Stream) 55 bn Kingdom (BBL) m3 9 bn m3 t o Renewable Renewable n fuels electricity o United Kingdom d Germany NL energie 1,0 GW in 2030 5,0 GW in 2030 hub e U Renewable Renewable Gas Electricity hub Chemical heat roundabout T LNG (Gate terminal) Zuid Wending 12 bn m3 Storage 0,8 bn m3 Heat Heat storage roundabout Belgium 3,8 GW in 2030 10 Energydays

  11. Permit request energy island Doggersbank y p o c t o or n o d Permit request for a new CCGT e U in the Eemshaven T 11 Energydays

  12. And how about energy demand? y • Electrification of high temperature heat p o • Electrical boilers within the industry c t • Heat pumps for households o n • Green gas, and all other names they call o it d • Electrical cars e U T Bron: eRisk Group, using PPSGen 12 Energydays

  13. Industrial heat • The transition that never will happen? y p • E-boilers: @ crossroad between two o negotiation tables c t • Large-scale flexibility supply: not the o n intended (primary) function. And who’s o in charge? d • Industry does not foresee a role for e themselves on the energy market. U T Prosumer? 13 Energydays

  14. Heat pumps next generation y p • Innovation versus lobby o c • Also available without noise, efficient t o and with temperatures of 65+ n • Large markets: NL, UK, Japan and o d Scandinavia e • Role regarding the developmet of U demand T • Financing constructions • And regulatory settings 14 Energydays

  15. Electric vehicles • Two pathways: Is that efficient? y p • Waterstof auto, nieuwe vormen van o brandstoffen (afval, bio enz) c t • Costs of batteries o n • Toyota is the kodak of the car industry o d e U T 15 Energydays

  16. Hydrogen • Ambition vs science y p • Double, triple, quadruple counting o c • Demand/supply game t • Qualitative discussion o n • Infrastructure development: Market? o Network operator? Both? d e U T 16 Energydays

  17. Flexibility development y p o c t o n o d e U T 17 Energydays

  18. Comparing apples with pears very low low medium high very high y 1 p 2 3 o MW c t o MWh n o Ramp speed d e  Conventional power plants, cross border capacity 1. Conventional solutions U T 2. New technologies and innovative  Hydro, pump storage, Power to Heat, Demand Side applications of existing technologies Response (e.g. electric mobility, heat pumps)  New fuels produced by abundant renewable power, 3. Seasonal flexibility demand shifting through heat storage or heat / cold storage 18 Energydays

  19. Dilemma business case flexibility y DEMAND FOR FLEXIBILITY (MW) p o - Growth eCars, Heat - Batteries and - Further growth of - New technologies c Pumps, demand response solar PV and win (especially NextGen) t o - Storage technologies Batteries and generation (by 2030 finally solve the n and smart grids not demand response expected to be 4-5 flexibility issues yet developed become successful times average peak o and manage all demand) d demand for flex - Need for new e flexibility U technologies T YEARS 19 Energydays

  20. Topsport approach 00:53,37 y 00:53,59 p o c 00:54,42 t o 00:55,57 n o d 01:08,37 e U T Jongens Minioren 6 Jongens Junioren 4 Jongens Jeugd 2 Heren Senioren 2 Heren All In Bron: KNZB Meerjaren Selectie Systeem 2017 Samenvatting van vereiste MSS-tijden voor 100 meter 20 Energydays vlinderslag Tijden in een 50 meter-bad

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