Wildland Fire Smoke & Roadway Visibility: Predict, Prepare and Avert Accidents Apex Superfog Event December 10 th 2015 A three part webinar series sponsored by NWCG Smoke Committee, Southern Fire Exchange, The Nature Conservancy & Prescribed Fire Training Center at Montgomery Community College
But first some webinar business: √ Start Recording √ Recognition of our partners √ Recognition of our presenters √ Archived by FRAMES √ Continuing Forestry Education Credits √ Webinar flow: time / presentation /questions Southern Fire Exchange
For those who wish to earn Continuing Forestry Education credits or to receive updates! I will need: 1. Name: Last, First, & M.I. 2. “email address” & 3. “physical mailing address” This is for CFE and MCC PFTC Certificates as well as for future mailings in relation to the webinars. This information can be entered into the webinar Chat Box or email it to: gary.curcio@gmail.com Also, I can be reached at 252-624-7635 (cell #)
Part 2: “Weather information & Tools Available to Stay Ahead of Superfog Events or Severely Reduced Roadway Visibility” “The tools for wildland smoke are building blocks of knowledge that deal with fuel, weather fire, and emissions”.
“Charles K. McMahon… in his 1980-85 RPR commented; through “Situational Awareness” Wildland fire managers, both prescribed & wildfire, can create opportunities to minimize the detrimental effects of fire’s smoke …..” smoke from smoldering combustion understanding moisture relationships in forest fuels, understanding the cumulative interaction of weather elements, and use of continued developing remote sensing methods and evolving dispersion models 5
Asst. Verona Fire Chief Gene Thomas VFD & Deputy Sheriff Steve Boehm Onslow County Hwy 17 outside Jacksonville, NC 6
Let’s Review Superfog Event; the worst Case Outcome
For Superfog to form, water content has to be right in the two merging air masses Critical atmospheric water content for visibility to be less than 3m (Superfog) - From theoretic calculation, critical water content needs to be 0.87g/kg (Gary Achtemeier, retired USFS Researcher) - From experiments, critical water content is 2.00g/kg (Christian Bartolome, Mechanical Engineer, UC-Riverside)
Superfog is the result of two merging air masses WE DO NOT KNOW WE KNOW! Fire Smoke Ambient Air Air Mass Mixed Air Parcel
Air Resource Advisors, technical smoke specialists, are trained to address Roadway Visibility Daily Assessment Process for evaluating RV Roadway Prepare RV Validate RV Visibility Plan Forecast Forecast (RVP) Communication / Distribution Process for RV Forecast 10
What needs to be assessed? What information/tools are available? Evaluate forecast / Assess Fire Danger monitor surface and ground fuel visual observation & remote consumption sensing Prepare & transmit Assess Fire Behavior RV forecast surface and ground fuels Daily Assessment Process to Develop Roadway Visibility Forecast Collect Fire Weather Identify impacted information for surface and roadways upper air 3 mileage zones Where is the smoke Physically inspect smoke going? Review natural production drainage for smoke transport & perform PB –Piedmont, Its origin & type Trajectory, &/or Dispersion Model runs 11
Fire Danger (NFDRS addresses only “surface fuels”) – Dad Fire 1 hr. 10 hr. 100 hr. 1000 hr. KBDI IC ERC SC BI Fuel Model O High Pocosin 8 9 15 18 224 12 39 11 50 Caution on use of NFDRS Fire Behavior Components with the new planned update Starting as a Prescribed fire on Saturday June 16 th , 2012. The Burn spotted and was declared a wildfire on June 17 th . Dad Fire burned approximately 21,000 acres of Pocosin Fuels Fire Danger reflects how well the forest “SURFACE FUELS” will Sunday burn. It gives an idea of what is available to burn. 12
Comparing ERC Trendlines amongst NFDRS Brush Fuel Models 50 Chaparral Poly. (FM B) 45 Southern Rough Poly. (FM D) 40 Energy Release Component Poly. (FM F) Chamise (ERC x 25= BTUs/ft²) 35 Poly. (FM O) Pocosin 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1-Jan 1-Feb1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 13
Fire Behavior Components SOW T RH WS of NFDRS Outputs 1 78 52 13 1 hr. 10 hr. 100 hr. 1000 hr. KBDI IC ERC SC BI Fuel Model O High Pocosin 8 9 15 18 224 12 39 11 50 8 9 15 18 224 22 30 11 44 Fuel Model G Short Needle 14
Old NFDRS program SPEED LIMIT 45 SPEED New / revised NFDRS LIMIT program HIGH 15
L layer F layer H layer Difficult to burn > 45 % Difficult to burn > 75 % Difficult to > 50 % MOE Light L = 2.5T ~ 10 Hr. Medium to Heavy L = 7 to 12 T/ac ~ 100 Hr.
Organic Soils and duffs (Non-Surface Fuels) are additional fuel types that need to be inclusive to any NFDRS 17
Fire Behavior: Are we dealing with smoldering or flaming combustion? 18
Fire Weather Information to be collected Do “key variables” reach CRITICAL threshold / critical values? OVERLAP (sunset to sunrise) Common Evaluating Smoke Dispersion & Smoke Present (√) Hours Hours Induced Fog Potential on SSA’s & Roadway Present Visibility due to smoldering combustion SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55 °F) RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6) LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL ( ≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 19
Weather Information from Fire Weather Point Matrix (PFW) Reedy Creek Station SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55 °F) 43 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 100 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 1 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 44 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) D / F* ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6) 1 LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index 10 (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL ( ≥ 70%, critical ≥ 100 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles 0-3 from Smoke Source (mountain topography CRIT. supports greater surface smoke transport distances) Yes * Value determined from portable tool 20
Fire Weather Information was available the day before the Superfog Event at 4:10 PM 21
Interstate 40 Arizona Superfog Event October 19 th 2016 22
Information from Fire Weather Forecast SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55 °F) 29 – 33 concerning tonight’s weather RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10–30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) NA ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6) NA LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index NA (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL ( ≥ 70%, critical ≥ NA 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles 0-3 from Smoke Source (mountain topography CRIT. supports greater surface smoke transport distances) Yes 23
Information from Fire Weather Forecast & Spot Forecast SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55 °F) 29 – 39 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 80 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 5 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10-30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) NA ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6) NA LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index NA (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL ( ≥ 70%, critical ≥ NA 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles 0-3 from Smoke Source (mountain topography CRIT. supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 24 Yes
Information from Fire Weather Forecast & Spot Forecast Fill in the index values from tools available SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55 °F) 29 – 39 based on the Spot Forecast 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 80 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 5 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10–30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) F ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6) 2-5 LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index 4-5 (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL ( ≥ 70%, critical ≥ 70 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles 0-3 from Smoke Source (mountain topography CRIT. 25 supports greater surface smoke transport distances) Yes
Quick Assessment to determine Turner Stability Index Daytime insolation Night-time conditions Surface wind Thin overcast or > Strong Moderate Slight <= 4/8 cloudiness speed (m/s) 4/8 low cloud < 2 or < 4.4 mph A A - B B E F 2 – 3 or < 6.6 mph A - B B C E F 3 – 5 or < 11 mph B B - C C D E 5 – 6 or < 13.2 C C - D D D D mph > 6 or . 13.2 mph C D D D D 26
Table to determine Atmospheric Dispersion Index 27
Quick Assessment to determine LVORI 28
Gary Achtemeier, - Measured T, Td of several smokes from Rx Burns in the field - Developed a model to mix the smoke and ambient air parcel - If the water content of the mixed air parcel exceeds the critical 29 water content, superfog will occur.
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