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WHY ARE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS SO VOLATILE? REVIEW OF GOLD & - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WHY ARE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS SO VOLATILE? REVIEW OF GOLD & SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY WILL THIS VOLATILITY CONTINUE? HOW TO DEAL WITH IT? GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY


  1. WHY ARE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS SO VOLATILE? • REVIEW OF GOLD & SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY • WILL THIS VOLATILITY CONTINUE? • HOW TO DEAL WITH IT?

  2. GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ��� ��� �������������� �� �������������� �� �� �� �� � ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  3. GOLD AND SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY ��� ��� ���������������� ��� ������������ ������ ������ ��� ���� �� � ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  4. GOLD AND SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY: ANNUAL AVERAGES 1980-2011 IN %* �� �� �� �� �� �� ������ �� �� �� �� � � �� �� ���� �� �� � � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� *Annual Averages of Monthly Volatility; 2012 = Jan-Jul period Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  5. GOLD AND SILVER ANNUAL TRADING RANGES AS A % OF ANNUAL AVERAGE PRICE ��� ������ %��&���%'"(�!"�)(�*" ��� ��� ���!"��#����$�%��& ��� �� ���� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  6. GOLD AND SILVER ANNUAL TRADING RANGES IN 2011 USD TERMS ��� �� �������+(�!������,�#*��"- ��� �� ��� �� ��� �� �� �����+�"$�����,�#*��"- ��� � ��� � � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  7. GOLD DEMAND: 2002 VS. 2011 2002: 4,045 tonnes 2011: 4,486 tonnes Other Other Fabrication 9% 10% (excl. all coins) Fabrication 54% World (excl. all coins) Investment* 75% 16% 16% World Investment* 36% *World Investment is the sum of Implied Net Investment, Physical Bar Investment and all Coins & Medals Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  8. SILVER DEMAND: 2002 VS. 2011 2002: 26,468 tonnes 2011: 32,365 tonnes World Other Investment* 3% 2% Fabrication World Fabrication (excl. all coins) Investment* 73% (excl. all coins) 27% 95% *World Investment is the sum of Implied Net Investment, Physical Bar Investment and all Coins & Medals Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  9. WORLD INVESTMENT’S SHARE OF TOTAL DEMAND �� �� ���� � �� ������ ������ � �� � ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  10. GOLD FUTURES AND ETFs TOTAL ANNUAL TURNOVER ��� �./�.&(��'"(00 ��� /&�&("#�.&(��'"(0 ���&#��,#- ��� .���"# +���& ��� �� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� *Includes Comex, Tocom, CBOT/NYSE Liffe, SGE Spot, SGE AU(T+D), SHFE, MCX, NCDEX, DGCX **SPDR Gold Shares. Source: Respective issuers

  11. SILVER FUTURES AND ETFs TOTAL ANNUAL TURNOVER ���� �./�.&(��'"(00 ���� +���&#��,#- /&�&("#�.&(��'"(0 ��� .���"# +���& ���� ���� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� *Includes Comex, Tocom, CBOT/NYSE Liffe, SGE(T+D), MCX, NCDEX ** iShares Silver Trust. Source: Respective issuers

  12. GOLD FUTURES TURNOVER VS. FABRICATION ��� ���� �������������������� ��� ��� ����� ��&#��,#- ��� ��� �������������� ��!����������� .���"#�+���&# .�� .���"# ����� ����� ���� ��� ���� �� ���� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� *Includes Comex, Tocom, CBOT/NYSE Liffe, SGE Spot, SGE AU(T+D), SHFE, MCX, NCDEX, DGCX. Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Relevant Exchanges

  13. SILVER FUTURES TURNOVER VS. FABRICATION ���� � ���������������������� ����� ���� .���"#�+� ��&#��,#- �� ��� �������������� ��!����������� "#�+���&#��,#- .���"#�+���&# ������ ������ ���� �� ���� � �� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� *Includes Comex, Tocom, CBOT/NYSE Liffe, SGE(T+D), MCX, NCDEX. Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Relevant Exchanges

  14. CORRELATION BETWEEN PRICE AND NET “INVESTOR” LONG POSITION ON COMEX �1� �1� �*�(("�������+�- �1� �1� �1� ���, ���, ������!����,���*�( �1� ��1� ���'"( ��1� ��1� ��1� ���� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  15. GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY AND NET NON-COMMERCIAL LONG POSITIONS IN COMEX FUTURES �� �����������+(�!������,�#*��"- �� (�*�#4����&#��,#- � ������!����,� ��� � ��� 2"��3�#�����#�+*���(�*�# �� ,���'����������+�- ��� �� �� ��� �� Net Non-Commercial �� � Long Positions � � ������ %3(��� �&���� �*���� ������ %3(��� �&���� Source: CFTC

  16. SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY AND NET NON-COMMERCIAL LONG POSITIONS IN COMEX FUTURES �� ��� (�*�#4����&#��,#- �����������+(�!������,�#*��"- �� ������!����,� ��� � ��� � 2"��3�#�����#�+*���(�*�# ,���'����������+�- �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� Net Non-Commercial � Long Positions � � ������ %3(��� �&���� �*���� ������ %3(��� �&���� Source: CFTC

  17. QUARTERLY CORRELATION OF DAILY SILVER PRICE WITH GOLD & COPPER PRICES �1� Gold �1� ��5�"$$�*�"�� �1� �1� �1� 5�(("�������5� Copper �1� �1� ��1� ��1� ������ ����� ������ ������ ������ ������ Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  18. GOLD, SILVER, COPPER AND USD/GBP VOLATILITY ANNUAL AVERAGES �� ������ �� �� ����������� ������������������ "�##�� "�##�� � � �� ���� �� $�%&' � ���� ���� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

  19. WHY ARE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS SO VOLATILE? • REVIEW OF GOLD & SILVER PRICE VOLATILITY • WILL THIS VOLATILITY CONTINUE? • HOW TO DEAL WITH IT?

  20. WORLD INVESTMENT’S SHARE OF GOLD DEMAND FORECASTS FOR 2012-15 �� )(�7�7�����"# ��() *����"���+�,-. �� �,"6��,�+�- ��()���������+�/0. �� ��1���������+�2-. ���("��$�������,"6 �� �� *��� � ��1 �� �� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

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