What is happening to biodiversity and what are we doing? Hugh - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What is happening to biodiversity and what are we doing? Hugh Possingham FAA FNAS, @HugePossum Chief Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Univ QLD, ARC Laureate Fellow (20%)

Overview • How is the world’s biodiversity going? • What is destroying it? • What is the world doing about it? • What are we doing? Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

How are we going? • Extinction rates 100-1000 times > background • Australia has lost two mammal species this century already • Australia is losing >1 species/subspecies of bird per decade (should be 1 per thousand yrs) • Living Plant Index, Australian Threatened Species Index Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

Living planet index – 60% decline Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

Australian TSX (birds) https://tsx.org.au/tsx/#/ Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

What is destroying our biodiversity? Ranking major threatening processes by the number of species they impact. Maxwell, S.L., Fuller, R.A., Brooks, T.A. & Watson, J.E.M. (2016) Nature 536 : 143-145

Species Species Abbreviated major threat threatened threatened Major threat class class classification (n) (% of total) 1. Residential & commercial Urban development 3014 34.7 development 2. Agriculture & aquaculture Agricultural activity 5407 62.2 3. Energy production & mining Energy production 913 10.5 4. Transportation & service Transportation 1219 14.0 corridors 5. Biological resource use Overexploitation 6241 71.8 6. Human intrusions & Human disturbance 1223 14.1 disturbance 7. Natural system modifications System modification 1865 21.5 8. Invasive & other problematic Invasion & disease 2298 26.5 species, genes & diseases 9. Pollution Pollution 1901 21.9 10. Geological events NA 122 1.4 11. Climate change & severe Climate change 1688 19.4 weather 12. Other options NA 10 0.1 Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

Investment in conservation works, but … BDS = Biodiversity Decline Score Colour shows percent of global BDS contributed by the country. Source: A Waldron et al. Nature 1 – 4 (2017) doi:10.1038/nature24295

What works • Traditional protection still delivers but … • There is a massive management budget shortfall, protected areas can be lost ( PADDD ), not representative • Restoration – Fire regimes – Temperate reefs – Flow regimes – Forests and forestry • Novel market mechanisms – blue bonds, reverse auctions, payments for ecosystem services, biodiversity offsets and banking, insuring natural capital Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

Take home • Reverse the funding decline, then multiply by ten • Will Australia’s governments save our biodiversity? • Legislation that is enforced (underfunded and dysfunctional EPBC Act) • Be smarter, be bolder • Decarbonise the economy, much cheaper than you thought • But what about the 10 billion people? Biodiversity threats in perspecitve

GLOBAL SITUATION ANALYSIS : BUSINESS AS USUAL • World population grows to about 10 billion people • Global GDP grows 8% per year • Demand for food grows by 55% • Demand for energy grows by 60% Heather Tallis Lead Scientist for Strategy Innovation FEE in press, Tallis et al.

2050 IMPACTS : CAN WE DO BETTER?