WCPSS ENROLLMENT PLAN – 2017-18 Year Three of a Multi-Year Approach to Growth Management SECOND DRAFT Board of Education Work Session, October 4, 2016 Prepared by: Office of Student Assignment, 2016
Draft 2 – Feedback on Draft 1 Discussion/Recommendation Page Page New Schools: Draft 2 Draft 1 Hortons Creek ES - Calendar Option I Alston Ridge ES and/or Turner Creek 1. 3 14 ES. Further discussion needed. Cary Park Subdivision – ES Assignment I No Change to Draft 1 2. 4-5 14-18 Recommendation Operational Efficiency: 1. Alston Ridge ES - Calendar Option I Green Hope ES and Hortons Creek ES 6 28 2. Lincoln Heights ES – Utilization I Implement no changes in 2017-18. 7 31 Southerlyn Subdivision - MS Assignment I Assign Southerlyn Subdivision 3. 8 as base to Mills Park Middle School in 2017-18. 4. Timeline Update I Community meeting October dates added 9 7, 39 Additions/Corrections Made To Draft 1: 1. New Schools – Swing Space Information Added I Bryan Rd. ES, South 4 Garner HS, Green Level HS, E-24 ES, Willow Spring HS 2. Alston Ridge - Academic Proficiency, Actual 2014-15 Corrected I 18 From 71% to 87%. 2
Draft 2 - Discussion/Recommendation New Schools: 1. Hortons Creek ES Calendar Option School Discussion: • Proposed year-round calendar option school for Hortons Creek ES could be Alston Ridge ES and/or Turner Creek ES. • If M-16 MS opens on traditional calendar in 2019, and Alston Ridge ES changes to traditional calendar, then calendar option could be Turner Creek ES. • If M-16 MS opens on year-round calendar in 2019, then Alston Ridge ES could be recommended as calendar option school. Recommendation: 3
Draft 2 - Discussion/Recommendation New Schools: 2. Cary Park Subdivision Assignment (1 of 2) Discussion: Cary Park Subdivision (Area 2) requested to remain at Mills Park ES Base instead of being reassigned to Hortons Creek ES Base area. Elementary School Subdivisions Students by - Existing Place of - Preliminary Residence Cary Park Subdivision Area 2 4
Draft 2 - Discussion/Recommendation New Schools: 2. Cary Park Subdivision Assignment (2 of 2) Discussion: Cary Park Subdivision (Area 2) requested to remain at Mills Park ES Base instead of being reassigned to Hortons Creek ES Base area. Cary Park Subdivision, Area 2 Recommendation: No Change to Draft 1 Recommendation. 5
Draft 2 – Discussion/Recommendation Operational Efficiency: 1. Alston Ridge ES Calendar Option Discussion: It is proposed to change calendar option for Alston Ridge ES from Weatherstone ES to Hortons Creek ES, in 2017-18. Recommendation: Change calendar option for Alston Ridge ES in 2017-18: • from Green Hope ES and Weatherstone ES • to Green Hope ES and Hortons Creek ES . 6
Draft 2 – Discussion/Recommendation Operational Efficiency: 2. Lincoln Heights ES Utilization Discussion: • Balance utilization of southern elementary schools • “Two-phase” assignment plan • Consider opening of E-45 (2018-19), and E-35 (TBD). 2016- 2016- School 2015-16 17 17 Utilization Cal ADM SPR BPR Herbert Akins ES Y-R 102% 99% 94% Fuquay-Varina ES TR 152% 151% 181% Holly Grove ES Y-R 117% 113% 108% Lincoln Heights ES TR 71% 72% 70% Willow Springs ES Y-R 139% 145% 150% Recommendation: Implement no changes in 2017-18. 7
Draft 2 – Discussion/Recommendation Operational Efficiency: 3. Southerlyn Subdivision MS Assignment Discussion: Southerlyn Subdivision requested to be assigned as base to Mills Park Middle School instead of Salem Middle School. Students Residing in Southerlyn Subdivision Attend the Following Schools in 2016 ‐ 17 Number of School Level Current School Students, Code 2016 ‐ 17 307 E Alston Ridge Elementary 1 369 E Cedar Fork Elementary 2 443 E Highcroft Drive Elementary 2 501 E Mills Park Elementary 1 571 E Turner Creek Elementary 2 596 E Washington Elementary 1 614 E White Oak Elementary 13 356 M Carnage Middle 5 391 M Davis Drive Middle 1 551 M Salem Middle 2 386 S Crossroads FLEX HS 1 441 S Green Hope High 1 526 S Panther Creek High 2 Total 34 Recommendation: Assign Southerlyn Subdivision Southerlyn Subdivision as base to Mills Park Middle School in 2017-18. 8
Draft 2 – Discussion/Recommendation 4. Timeline of Enrollment Process DATES ACTIONS BoE Work Session – review/discuss needs for 2017-18 enrollment plan, May 17, 2016 seek board input on direction BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 1 of the 2017-18 enrollment September 6, 2016 plan; begin feedback process through online forums September, 2016 BoE Advisory Committees – staff presents Draft 1; solicits feedback BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 2 of the enrollment plan; October 4, 2016 continue to solicit feedback through online forums Community meetings – staff presents Draft 2; solicits feedback October, 2016 October 10 - Beaverdam ES; October 11 - Alston Ridge ES BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 3/Final of the 2017-18 Nov / Dec, 2016 enrollment plan Public Hearing Nov / Dec, 2016 BoE Work Session BoE approval of 2017-18 Enrollment Plan 9
WCPSS ENROLLMENT PLAN – 2017-18 Year Three of a Multi-Year Approach to Growth Management FIRST DRAFT Board of Education Work Session, Septem ber 6, 2016 Prepared by: Office of Student Assignment
Enrollment Growth, 2006 – 2020 Actual Enrollment (2006–2015) Projected Enrollment (2016-2020) Student Growth = 29,108 Students Student Growth = 13,333 Students Data Sources: 2 Enrollment: WCPSS Month-2 ADM, NCDPI; Forecast: OREd/WakeGov/WCPSS - December 4, 2015
It’s All About Growth… Net Gain: 2012-13 to 2015-16 Net Gain: Forecasted Gain: * Planning Region 2012-13 to 2015-16 2015-16 to 2020-21 West-North 2,619 1,142 South-West 2,120 4,878 Near East 1,349 4,807 North 547 1,032 North-Central 350 - 502 North-West 329 - 234 West-South 296 2,057 Central 250 - 472 South-East 249 2,588 Far East 23 433 * Negative growth in some areas is a result of lower system-wide K-12 forecast and significantly increased growth potential in other areas. Data Sources: 3 WCPSS student geocode; SPDM forecast: OREd/ITRE, April 2016
Multi ‐ Year Enrollment Plan: New Schools School Openings CIP 2013 (2015 ‐ 2018) Future Funding (2019 ‐ 2023) CIP 2013 = 15 schools In addition: Apex Friendship HS (CIP 2006) FLEX HS and CTE HS (SNAP Projects) 2017 ‐ 18 Year 3 of the Multi ‐ Year Enrollment Plan School Site Planning, Future Funding = 14 schools In addition: Four Schools (SNAP Projects) 2 CR = Community Responsive 2 ALP = Alternative Learning Program SNAP: Space Needs Analysis & Prioritization 4
School Site Planning 2017 - 2023 5
School Year 3 of the Multi-Year Openings Enrollment Plan 2017-18 CR = Community Responsive 6
Timeline of Enrollment Process DATES ACTIONS BoE Work Session – review/discuss needs for 2017-18 enrollment plan, May 17, 2016 seek board input on direction BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 1 of the 2017-18 enrollment September 6, 2016 plan; begin feedback process through online forums September, 2016 BoE Advisory Committees – staff presents Draft 1; solicits feedback BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 2 of the enrollment plan; October, 2016 continue to solicit feedback through online forums October, 2016 Community meetings – staff presents Draft 2; solicits feedback BoE Work Session – staff presents Draft 3/Final of the 2017-18 Nov / Dec, 2016 enrollment plan Public Hearing Nov / Dec, 2016 BoE Work Session BoE approval of 2017-18 Enrollment Plan 7
WCPSS Board Policy 4100 Student Assignment A. Student Achievement B. Stability C. Proximity D. Operational Efficiency Note: More detailed information is included in Addendum 8
Base Attendance Area Scenarios Base attendance areas for new schools are generated by an optimization engine created by the Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) at ITRE/ NCSU. Optimization allows many factors to be considered when determining base attendance areas, such as factors in WCPSS Policy 4100: • Stability - Minimizing the number of families impacted by assignment changes. In the optimization process, this can mean minimizing the number of existing schools used in the optimization engine. The combined bases for the existing schools is known as the “impact area”. • Proximity to School • Building Utilization • Anticipated Growth • Impact of Future Base Attendance Areas (Long-term Stability) Optimal Base Attendance Areas are only the first step in the enrollment planning process. 9
The Review Process Base Attendance Areas are reviewed and edited considering: • Stability * • Transportation/accessibility issues • Achievement data • Preserving neighborhoods • Natural or man-made geographical limitations • Alignment of Elementary > Middle calendar * Stability is considered in the review process when proximity-driven assignment changes have a small net result or equal net result in number of students. 10
District-Wide Impact – Elementary Schools 11
District-Wide Impact – Middle Schools 12
District-Wide Impact – High Schools 13
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