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Space Tourist On-board Protection Space Tourist On-board Protection Space Tourist On-board Protection Space Tourist On-board Protection Summer School on Space Weather: Physics, Impacts and Predictions, Alpbach/Austria, 1 st August 2002, Team 2 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 2 2 Summer school Alpbach 1 st August 2002 - Space Weather : Physics, Impacts and Predictions Team 2 Workshop Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 3 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 3

Outline Outline Motivation Motivation � � STOP Prediction Centre STOP Prediction Centre � � STOP Space Segment STOP Space Segment � � STOP Data Centre STOP Data Centre � � Cost Analyses Cost Analyses � � Conclusions Conclusions � � 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 4 4 Why Space Tourism? Why Space Tourism? The first step toward mankind habitats habitats The first step toward mankind � � out in space out in space A new driver for future resource A new driver for future resource � � investment in space science investment in space science Inspiring and educating students Inspiring and educating students � � Popularising space science Popularising space science � � Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 5 2002 2002- -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 5

Why Space Weather Service For Why Space Weather Service For Space Tourism? Space Tourism? � Providing Providing tailor tailor- -made service made service for a new sector of for a new sector of � clients clients � Lack of awareness of the Space Weather hazard Lack of awareness of the Space Weather hazard � � Insuring the long term Insuring the long term safety safety for Space Tourists for Space Tourists � guarantees the longitivity of the business guarantees the longitivity of the business � Drawing the Drawing the public attention public attention to the hazard of to the hazard of � SW SW � A new A new fund source fund source for Space Weather Missions for Space Weather Missions � 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 6 6 People Interests People Interests 34% of 1500 families said that they are 34% of 1500 families said that they are � � ready to take a Space Vacation and pay ready to take a Space Vacation and pay in average $ 10,800 $ 10,800 for it for it in average Already 200 person paid $ 100,000 each Already 200 person paid $ 100,000 each � � to go into sub- -orbital flights orbital flights to go into sub Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 7 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 7

Market Forecasting Market Forecasting � JSR study (1993) JSR study (1993) � No study counted for the hazard of � 1 M ST/year in Japan 1 M ST/year in Japan � � Annual turnover of Annual turnover of $ 14 billion $ 14 billion for ticket under $ 14,000 for ticket under $ 14,000 � Space Weather and its costs � DASA study (1995) DASA study (1995) � � 450,000 ST/year 450,000 ST/year in Europe in Europe � � Annual turnover of Annual turnover of $ 20 billion $ 20 billion for ticket under $ 50,000 for ticket under $ 50,000 � � NASA study (1997) NASA study (1997) � � $ 10 $ 10- -20 billion per year 20 billion per year � � TU Berlin study (97/98/2002) TU Berlin study (97/98/2002) � � 100,000 ST/year 100,000 ST/year globally globally � � Annual turnover of Annual turnover of $ 9 billion $ 9 billion for ticket under $ 100,000 for ticket under $ 100,000 � 2002 2002- -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 8 8 Reactions From The Market Reactions From The Market � „ „We know little or nothing about the subject of We know little or nothing about the subject of � „Space Weather“, but it is encouraging to know „Space Weather“, but it is encouraging to know that there are people who have a vision for the that there are people who have a vision for the future.“ future.“ � „...Predictions ~ 24 hours into the future would „...Predictions ~ 24 hours into the future would � be especially helpful...“ be especially helpful...“ � „We may have an interest, please send us more „We may have an interest, please send us more � information.“ information.“ Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 9 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 9

Space Tourism 2030 Space Tourism 2030 2002 2002- -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 10 10 Motivation Motivation � Space Hotels Space Hotels � � Orbital Flight Orbital Flight � � Suborbital Flight Suborbital Flight � Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 11 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 11

Motivation Motivation � Starting business Starting business � � People interest People interest � � 800 people in 28 countries 800 people in 28 countries � � Over 20 people have put in reservation Over 20 people have put in reservation � � Not only tourism Not only tourism � � physics behind physics behind � � Creation of new generation of heroes Creation of new generation of heroes � � Inspiring and educating students Inspiring and educating students � � Focusing public attention and investment Focusing public attention and investment � capital on this new business frontier capital on this new business frontier 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 12 12 Motivation Motivation Ranking List for people to fly into space The desire to look at Earth from space The desire to look at Earth from space 1. 1. The desire to look at space from space The desire to look at space from space 2. 2. Actually being in space Actually being in space 3. 3. Staying aboard a space station Staying aboard a space station 4. 4. Experiencing weightlessness Experiencing weightlessness 5. 5. Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 13 2002 2002- -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 13

Motivation Motivation „The strong consenus view of the „The strong consenus view of the Workshop was that is a very real potential Workshop was that is a very real potential for a large profitable commercially- -driven driven for a large profitable commercially general public space travel and tourism general public space travel and tourism business to begin to develop beginning a business to begin to develop beginning a very few years from now.“ very few years from now.“ NASA Workshop March 1998 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 14 14 Timeline Timeline Suborbital Flight Orbital Flight Space Hotels Tourism 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Radiation Hazards Forecast Hours Days Service 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Nowcast of Space Weather STOP - 1 STOP Missions 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 STOP - 2 Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 15 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 15

Costs of Ticket Costs of Ticket 4 3.5 3 2.5 Mio. € 2 3.6 1.5 1 0.5 0.1 0.05 0 Suborb Orb Hotels Timeline 2002 2007 2017 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 16 16 STOP Prediction Centre STOP Prediction Centre Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 17 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 17

Focus of STOP Services Focus of STOP Services � Radiation hazards Radiation hazards � � Tissue damages Tissue damages � 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 18 18 The Radiation Environment The Radiation Environment Galactic Cosmic Rays SPE‘s Radiation Belts Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 19 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 19

The Radiation Environment The Radiation Environment Three sources of radiation: Three sources of radiation: Galactic Cosmic Rays Galactic Cosmic Rays � � Has predictable 11- -year cycle associated with solar year cycle associated with solar Has predictable 11 � � activity activity Effect greatest at Solar minimum Effect greatest at Solar minimum � � Earth Radiation Belts Earth Radiation Belts � � Also relativily predictable at low orbits Also relativily predictable at low orbits � � South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) gives largest effect South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) gives largest effect � � Solar Particle Events (SPE) Solar Particle Events (SPE) � � Rare and difficult to predict Rare and difficult to predict � � Highly energetic particles from solar flares & CME´s Highly energetic particles from solar flares & CME´s � � 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 - Presentation / Team 2 - STOP STOP 20 20 Radiation Hazards Radiation Hazards Galactic Radiation SPE Galactic Radiation SPE Cosmic Belt Cosmic Belt Rays Rays Sub- Sub -orbital orbital ~100km ~100km Orbital Orbital ~400km ~400km Lunar Lunar missions missions Presentation / Team 2 - - STOP STOP 21 2002- 2002 -08 08- -01 01 Presentation / Team 2 21