VRIC 2020 January 19 th , 2020 / Workshop 5 Presented by Kai Hoffmann, CEO
We track over 1,400 Logged +33 500 deals In-house data analyst ▪ ▪ ▪ companies on the TSX, since 2011 Consulting on capital raises ▪ TSX-V, and the CSE Data-driven approach to and ancillary aspects ▪ Provide sector and broker examining financings ▪ reports 2
J U N I O R M I N I N G M A R K E T CAD market cap CAD financing 3
Weighted Index Factors: 1. Total $s of financings opened 2. Percentage of broker participation 3. Total # of deals opened www. Oreninc .com 4
Collaboration with PDAC Publication at PDAC Conference Special Focus: Financings of companies with sub C$ 100mn market cap 5
• Flow-Through will be major contributor and will keep companies with Canadian projects afloat • Cannabis companies have peaked in 2018 • Chance to see less financings with warrants attached to show strength Smallest financing 2019: $5,000 $0.05 – 150% Premium 1 Warrant, 36 months
$5,00 20,0% 18,7% Billions 18,4% $4,50 18,0% $4,00 16,0% 15,5% $3,50 14,0% FT $572mn 11,1% $3,00 12,0% $2,50 10,0% 10,0% $2,00 8,0% $1,50 6,0% $1,00 4,0% $0,50 2,0% $- 0,0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Common Flow-Through FT in % of total Source: Oreninc 7
2019 Canadian Exploration Financings Share of FT FT; $561.319.171,07 ; 47% 40% 47% Common; $625.085.210,55 ; 53% TOP 10 $197.68mn 2018 FT Common FT; $464.380.500,00 ; 40% Common; $685.201.870,27 ; 60% 8 FT Common
FT Premiums sub 30% FT Premiums negative – free shares! CALL TO ACTION FT with a warrant #FREESHARES “The offering will consist of flow-through units and non-flow-through units both priced at five cents per unit.” 9
Mar arket Ca Caps Sha Share Pr Price Dollar ars Rai aised Dilution FT T Pr Prem emiums Comments Co 1 6,121,569.00 0.105 200,000.00 3.3% -52.38% 10% Disc at announcement, pumped up, sold off 2 2,227,804.00 0.12 270,799.98 12.2% -50.00% Known Scammer 3 32,834,618.00 0.2 1,000,000.00 3.0% -40.00% Positioning for IR firm 4 18,638,902.00 0.36 1,999,999.00 10.7% -38.89% Promo Play, Eric Sprott Investment 5 8,350,682.00 0.195 780,000.00 9.3% -33.33% 17.6% premium at time of announcement 6 2,332,330.00 0.22 168,000.00 7.2% -31.82% Positioning for promoters & insiders 7 26,412,491.00 0.175 2,990,861.64 11.3% -31.43% Positioning for promoters 8 16,672,546.00 0.08 227,333.00 1.4% -31.25% Dragged out financing from 2018 9 3,159,830.00 0.31 308,000.00 9.7% -29.03% Premium upon close, Eric Sprott investment 10 5,870,498.00 0.07 100,000.00 1.7% -28.57% Known Scammer 11 26,955,184.00 0.83 405,000.00 1.5% -27.71% Promote, doomed to fail 12 6,312,694.00 0.135 140,000.00 2.2% -25.93% 0% Premium on announcement 13 2,597,227.00 0.1 300,000.00 11.6% -25.00% Known Promoter on the board 14 151,354,069.00 0.37 5,096,356.72 3.4% -24.32% No announcement of financing opening, closed after positive news 15 8,959,093.00 0.65 250,000.00 2.8% -23.08% Area play in Red Lake 16 25,766,495.00 0.285 360,739.94 1.4% -22.81% Stock had massive run up, 0% premium at announcement 17 7,626,007.00 0.205 100,000.00 1.3% -21.95% Pot AND Cobalt company 18 6,312,694.00 0.135 275,000.00 4.4% -18.52% 0% Premium on announcement 19 6,848,094.00 0.18 150,000.00 2.2% -16.67% 2019: 750k, 294k, 225k placements, company has more advisors than DT 20 3,564,000.00 0.48 100,000.00 2.8% -16.67% 20% discount on annoucement at the end of the year 10
Cannabis on the CSE As of Oct. 31, 19 Cannabis & related companies accounted for 81% capital raised YTD Raising just below 2bn CAD Approx 50% was raised by US issuers TOTAL for 2018: 3.99bn! Mining raised $162mn or 7% of the total Source: The CSE, Graph: https://marijuanaindex.com 11
2018 2019 No of Average Average No of Average Average Financings Premium Term Financings Premium Term 363 27.7 384 29.1 1/1 Warrant 66% 61% 49.7% months months 49.5% ➔ 216 25.6 189 25.1 ➔ 1/2 Warrant 63% 65% 29.5% months 24.4% months 151 197 0 Warrant 20.6% 25.4% Financings with Top 30 financings, TOTAL 731 775 only 30% with a warrant warrants 2018: 79.2% 2019: 73.9% 12
“HOW YOUR INVESTMENT IS KILLING THE INDUSTRY” 13
9.000 Millions 8.030 8.000 7.000 6.000 4.819 5.000 4.609 4.600 4.000 3.242 2.758 3.000 2.538 2.406 2.290 2.000 1.000 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Oreninc *includes Common & Flow-Through, ex Oil & Gas & Frack Sand 14
Dow Jones: +18.8% S&P500: +24.7% Microsoft: +55.1% Tesla: +68.9% Apple: +103.3% 15
TSX.V Market Caps TICKER FUND NAME ISSUER AUM GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF VanEck $12.81B $18.98bn* GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF VanEck $4.86B RING iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF Blackrock $291.83M SGDM Sprott Gold Miners ETF Sprott, Inc. $184.95M Rafferty Asset JDST Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares $137.93M Management SGDJ Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF Sprott, Inc. $59.79M TSX Market Caps GOAU U.S. Global GO Gold and Precious Metal Miners ETF US Global Investors $56.15M Mirae Asset Global $362.15bn* GOEX Global X Gold Explorers ETF $42.47M Investments $18.44B *as of December 31,2019; Source: TSX.com Advantages of ETFs ▪ Managed by a fund manager with industry GDXJ expertise & qualifications Sibanye Gold (US$29.7bn) ▪ Spreading your investment dollars wider Kinross (US$5.6bn) 16 16
594 financings below C$ 1mn Average market cap: C$ 9mn 471 financings above C$ 1mn Average market cap: C$ 67mn Grass roots companies struggling to raise funds Deal makers: Become immediately ETF relevant 17
Dow Jones: +18.8% S&P500: +24.7% GDX: +39.9% GDXJ: +39.3% 18
Gold: 19.6% GDX: +38.9% GDXJ: +38.2% 19
Gold: 19.6% GDX: +38.9% GDXJ: +38.2% SilverCrest: +87.7% AMEX Expl.: +188.5% Great Bear: +206.9% 20
1.600,0 90,00 80,00 1.550,0 70,00 1.500,0 60,00 1.450,0 50,00 1.400,0 40,00 1.350,0 30,00 1.300,0 20,00 1.250,0 10,00 1.200,0 0,00 Gold Oreninc Index 21 Gold in USD Source: World Gold Council, Oreninc
2.000,0 Source: World Gold Council, Oreninc Gold in USD, Total size opened in CAD 1.000,0 1.400,0 1.200,0 1.600,0 1.800,0 400,0 200,0 600,0 800,0 0,0 13-Jan-11 10-Mar-11 5-May-11 30-Jun-11 25-Aug-11 20-Oct-11 15-Dec-11 9-Feb-12 5-Apr-12 31-May-12 26-Jul-12 20-Sep-12 15-Nov-12 10-Jan-13 7-Mar-13 2-May-13 27-Jun-13 22-Aug-13 17-Oct-13 12-Dec-13 6-Feb-14 3-Apr-14 29-May-14 24-Jul-14 18-Sep-14 13-Nov-14 8-Jan-15 5-Mar-15 30-Apr-15 25-Jun-15 20-Aug-15 15-Oct-15 10-Dec-15 4-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 26-May-16 21-Jul-16 15-Sep-16 10-Nov-16 5-Jan-17 2-Mar-17 27-Apr-17 22-Jun-17 17-Aug-17 12-Oct-17 7-Dec-17 1-Feb-18 29-Mar-18 24-May-18 19-Jul-18 13-Sep-18 8-Nov-18 3-Jan-19 28-Feb-19 25-Apr-19 20-Jun-19 15-Aug-19 10-Oct-19 5-Dec-19 $- $100.000.000 $200.000.000 $300.000.000 $400.000.000 $500.000.000 $600.000.000 $700.000.000 22
Total $s raised 2011 - 2019 9.000 Millions 8.030 8.000 7.000 6.000 4.819 4.609 4.600 5.000 4.000 3.242 2.758 2.538 3.000 2.406 2.290 2.000 1.000 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Oreninc *includes Common & Flow-Through, ex Oil & Gas & Frack Sand 23
2020 2 Bought deals in week 1 300 240 2019 250 Since May: 216 62 & 53 200 Bought deals only in week 8 150 100 98 84 100 83 68 47 50 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 # of Brokered Deals # of Bought Deals Source: Oreninc 24
Jan to Apr: 307 Total # of Deals May to today: 770 2011 - 2019 1600 1485 1485 1440 1397 1400 1205 1181 1200 1077 1008 1005 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Oreninc *includes Common & Flow-Through, ex Oil & Gas & Frack Sand 25
2019 Average Deal Size 2011 - 2019 595 deals $6.000.000,00 $5.576.529,48 < C$ 1mn $5.000.000,00 $4.000.000,00 $3.245.099,94 $3.292.535,62 $3.103.549,54 $3.000.000,00 $2.743.946,51 $2.690.223,25 $2.387.126,40 $2.356.530,23 $1.938.755,19 $2.000.000,00 $1.000.000,00 $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Oreninc *includes Common & Flow-Through, ex Oil & Gas & Frack Sand 26
▪ Re-Allocate some capital out of ETFs into single stocks ▪ Don’t over-allocate into one single stock ▪ Participate in private placements , even as a US-investor ▪ Don’t chase stocks ▪ Avoid financings with FT price ▪ Join a Stock Club at or below current share price ▪ Time to educate yourself and get a head start ▪ Start with prospectus ▪ Newsletters financings , no 4-month hold ▪ Conferences period, often without a ▪ Webinars warrant ▪ Social Media 27
ACC CCESS TO FINANCIN INGS MID TI TIER PR PRODUCERS FLO LOW – THROUGH will start to invest into junior Few remaining institutional Financing form will remain exploration companies investors will have easy access to extremely important moving deal flow, retail less so. forward Emergence of deal clubs.
Recommend
More recommend
