SEPTEMBER 2020 VERMILION ENERGY INVESTOR PRESENTATION INTERNATIONALLY DIVERSIFIED | FREE CASH FLOW FOCUSED | ESG LEADERSHIP
VERMILION’S KEY ATTRIBUTES ► Unique portfolio of internationally diversified, highly efficient conventional oil and gas assets ideally suited to support a growth-and-income capital markets model Paid out over $40 per share of dividends since 2003 o ► Long history of strong profitability and free cash flow generation High margin, low decline assets with strong capital efficiencies drive industry leading recycle ratios o Vermilion has delivered an average 13% ROACE since inception o ► Compelling investment opportunity currently trading at a significant market discount Trading at less than 50% of blowdown net asset value with a top quartile free cash flow yield o ► Significant leverage to recovering global commodity prices which will support our near-term priority of reducing debt and facilitate the transition back to a dividend paying model A 10% increase in global commodity prices would add approximately $120 million of free cash flow o ► Industry leader in sustainability and ESG performance Focused on ESG for over a decade with numerous awards and recognition by independent ESG agencies o 2
CORE OPERATING AREAS 2020E PRODUCTION* EUR 29% N.A. 66% AUS 5% EUR 32% FFO* N.A. 57% AUS 11% VERMILION IS FOCUSED IN THREE STABLE REGIONS * Company estimates as at August 31, 2020. 2020 FFO estimate based on 7 months of actuals, remainder of year at August 31, 2020 strip pricing and noted oil differentials: Brent (US$/bbl) $42.34/bbl; WTI (US$/bbl) $40.00; LSB = WTI less US$5.76/bbl; TTF ($/mmbtu) $3.84; AECO ($/mmbtu ) $2.32; CAD/USD 1.34; CAD/EUR 1.53 and CAD/AUD 0.93. Refer to the “FFO Sensitivity” slide in the Supplemental Information se ction of this 3 presentation for more details on pricing assumptions. Includes existing hedges. Fund Flows from Operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP measure (see Advisory).
CAPITAL MARKETS SUMMARY Market Summary Trading Price (August 31, 2020) $5.18 (TSX), $3.96 (NYSE) Ticker Symbol (TSX & NYSE) VET Shares Outstanding (June 30, 2020) 158.3 million Average Daily Trading Volume (shares) 2.3 million (TSX), 1.6 million (NYSE) Monthly Dividend Currently Suspended Director and Employee Ownership * 5% Capital Structure Market Capitalization $0.8 billion Enterprise Value $3.0 billion Net Debt (including net working capital, June 30, 2020) ** $2.2 billion Trailing Net Debt-to-FFO Ratio 3.2x 2020 Guidance Production 94,000 – 98,000 boe/d Capital Expenditures $350 – $370MM MEANINGFUL INSIDER OWNERSHIP ALIGNS MANAGEMENT AND EMPLOYEES WITH OUR SHAREHOLDERS * Based on fully-diluted shares. ** Net Debt is a non-GAAP measures (see Advisory). 4
FFO / FCF FFO FCF FFO / FCF ASSUMING FULL-YEAR US$50 WTI & C$6.50 TTF** $1,000 $500 ASSUMING FULL-YEAR US$50 WTI & C$6.50 TTF** $800 FFO LESS E&D CAPEX* ($MM) $400 FFO ($MM) $600 $300 $400 $200 $200 $100 $0 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E* CONTINUING TO GENERATE FREE CASH FLOW THROUGH VOLATILE COMMODITY CYCLES * Company estimates as at August 31, 2020. 2020 FFO estimate based on 7 months of actuals, remainder of year at August 31, 2020 strip pricing and noted oil differentials: WTI (US$/bbl) 40.00; Brent US$/bbl) 42.34; LSB = WTI less US$5.76/bbl; TTF ($/mmbtu) $3.84; AECO ($/mmbtu) $2.32; CAD/USD 1.34; CAD/EUR 1.53 and CAD/AUD 0.93. FFO based on the mid-point of our 2020 production guidance range. Refer to the “FFO Sensitivity” slide in the Supplemental Information section of this presentation for more details on pricing assumpti ons. 5 Includes existing hedges. FCF presented as FFO less the mid-point of our E&D Capital Guidance range. ** Sensitivity assumes flat US$50 WTI and C$6.50 TTF pricing for all months of 2020 while holding all other commodities at the August 24, 2020 strip. Also assumes company estimates for production and capital expenditures as of August 24, 2020.
GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICE SENSITIVITY ANNUAL UNHEDGED FFO SENSITIVITY $100 $80 FFO IMPACT (C$MM)* $60 $90MM $40 $20 $18MM $13MM $0 10% Increase in 2021 10% Increase in 2021 10% Increase in 2021 WTI / Brent Fwd Strip TTF & NBP Fwd Strip AECO Fwd Strip ► A 10% increase in global commodity prices would result in approximately $120MM of incremental cash flow OUR DIVERSIFIED ASSET BASE PROVIDES SIGNIFICANT LEVERAGE TO A GLOBAL RECOVERY IN COMMODITY PRICES * Based on our 2020 production guidance and applying a 10% change to the 2021 annual average forward commodity strip as of August 17, 2020: WTI US$45.14/bbl; TTF C$5.97/mmbtu; AECO 6 C$2.64/mmbtu.
FREE CASH FLOW YIELD 2020E FREE CASH FLOW AS A PERCENTAGE OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION 25% 20% 2020E FCF YIELD (%)* 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% WCP VET ARX VII BTE CNQ TOU CPG MEG ERF SU IMO PEY CVE HSE NVA** BIR** POU** HIGH FREE CASH FLOW YIELD RELATIVE TO CANADIAN MARKET PEERS * RBC Capital Markets estimates at futures strip. Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow less Gross Capital Expenditures (excluding Acquisition + Disposition activity). FCF Yield = (Operating Cash Flow 7 - Gross Capital Expenditures)/Market Cap. Includes Canadian companies from RBC’s August 27, 2020 comp table with 2020E producti on >50,000 boe/d. ** 2020E FCF Yield lower than -10%.
RELATIVE VALUATION SHARE PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF BLOW-DOWN NET ASSET VALUE 150% SHARE PRICE / NAV PER SHARE (%)* 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% VET BTE VII CPG POU PEY WCP BIR PXT TOU MEG ARX ERF CNQ SU CVE IMO HSE** VERMILION TRADES AT A SIGNIFICANT DISCOUNT TO NAV, PROVIDING AN ATTRACTIVE ENTRY POINT * Source: Peters estimates as of August 31, 2020. Peters’ blow -down NAV is based on 2P reserves using a 25-year time horizon and is calculated using the commodity and foreign exchange strip as of 8 August 31, 2020. Based on August 31, 2020 VET share price of $5.18 per share. ** HSE = 204%
RE-FOCUSING ON VERMILION’S CORE BUSINESS PRINCIPLES ► Maintain a strong balance sheet with low financial leverage ► Manage total payout ratio at less than 100% ► Consistently deliver results to all stakeholders that meet or exceed expectations ► Protect equity and minimize dilution ► Maintain a strong corporate culture OUR DECISIONS AND STRATEGY ARE GUIDED BY OUR CORE BUSINESS PRINCIPLES 9
VERMILION’S NEAR -TERM PRIORITIES ► Pay down debt, targeting a Debt-to-Cash Flow ratio of less than 1.5x CASH OUTFLOW REDUCTIONS ► Continue to navigate the Company through the COVID-19 pandemic with a primary focus on HSE and business continuity Annualized savings from $420MM suspension of dividend ► Continuing to find additional operational efficiencies and cost reductions throughout the business 2020 Capital program $100MM reduced by over 20% ► Review project slate to determine appropriate pace of development and allocation of capital Operating and G&A expense $35MM cost savings identified to-date ► Continue to strengthen our leadership role in ESG OVER $550MM* OF CASH ► Review shareholder return policy and determine the appropriate time REDUCTIONS TO-DATE to reinstate dividend and/or share buyback 10
ESG LEADERSHIP We are committed to Environmental, Social and Governance matters Environmental Social Governance We reduce environmental impacts of We are committed to the care of our We demonstrate strong corporate traditional energy production and develop people and those who work with us, and governance, with leadership that sets an renewable energy projects through to the enrichment of the communities example of the highest standards of ethics processes that conserve, reuse and where we live and work through strategic and integrity and a commitment to the recycle resources community investment responsible development of our assets READ MORE AT HTTP://SUSTAINABILITY.VERMILIONENERGY.COM * Refer to slides 38 through 42 of this presentation for further details of Vermilion’s ESG performance. 11
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