Usability of Global Seismological Data for Disaster Prediction .. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Usability of Global Seismological Data for Disaster Prediction ….. Agha Syed Muhammad Ayub Shah Bukhari

Natural Disasters Millions of lives lost …....!

Increasing Natural Disasters Increasing population densities result in more losses as compared to the previous disasters of the same size, magnitude and nature. Source: USGS via StandEyo

Concept Disaster Prediction, Preparedness & Damage Avoidance • Interpretations of Global Seismological Data • Early in Time ~ Probably to forewarn • Using Innovative Techniques for interpretation • Resolution Enhancement of the Data to gather more information • Exploring more through collaborative cooperative and other approaches • Public outreach and inreach

Data Interpretation • Using Innovative Techniques • Pattern Informatics • Event Correlations • Resolution Enhancement of the Data • Spectral Resolution to include HF , VHF and UHF acquisitions for study • Temporal Resolution pre-occurrence, occurrence and post-occurrence signatures • Spatial Resolution to include the missed out known active and inactive faults

Pattern Informatics Techniques Natural phenomena follow patterns ~ Particularly Bio & Medical Sciences • Temporal Modelling • Spatial Modelling • Extraterrestrial Relational Modelling Event Event 3 4 Event 2 • Intensity and other parametric Modelling Event 1 • Composite Analytical Mapping and Modelling • Other techniques

Partial Pattern ~ False Results Partial Pattern Event Patterns Time Axis

Event Correlation • Global Seismic and other Natural Events • Sequential Correlation • Energy or Post Facto Effects Correlation • Temporal, Spectral and other Correlations • Extra Terrestrial Events • Effects on surface, subsurface and atmospheric variables • Energy Increment or Decrement Detection • Study of Forces

Requisites • Complete Global Data Set in Unison • Open Public Availability – Single Source or access portal • Collaboration and Timely sharing • Innovative Approaches ~ Ideas to Reality Above all …………….

Proposition • Precision in Detection • Addition of new parameters ~ ‘Geo-Stimuli’ • Analysis of the acquired data ~ Post Facto • Validation of the acquired data • Post conditions ~ Geo-Effects

Issues • Data Acquisition Means • Around the Globe Deployment of Sensor Arrays • Sensor Arrays Spacing and specific site deployment • Political, National and International Concerns Addressing • Cost Factors • Related and other issues

Issues Cont’d • Data Transport and Storage Networks • Complexity • Means • Cost

Issues Cont’d • Data Availability • Early availability ~ Reduced source to seek time • Dissemination • Management • Assurance • Validation ~ through independent sources

Prediction Domain Processing Sensors Handling Reporting

Data Processing Analysis Analysis for patterns formation and identifications Final Processing Data Refinement Detailed processing Intermediate and storage for Processing archiving Initial Processing Mid way, at storage ~ On site processing to determine conspicuous spikes At source processing to determine ~ Triggers conspicuous spikes ~ Triggers Time

Sensors • Autonomous Sensor Arrays • Power Self-sufficient • Network-self-configuring • Processing-capable • Self healing • Fundamentals • Cognitive Radios • Ad hoc Networks • Other techniques

Data Handling • Unified Access through International Coordinating Body ~ CTBTO • Open public Access to all formats and stages of refinements • No Replication needed • Global Storage Network with central control and access • Single Sign on – Portal • Timely Knowledge Sharing ~ Discoveries

Reporting • Innovative reporting mechanisms • Immediate reporting of Anomalous Detection • Wide dissemination of the Alarm Conditions • Reporting to the concerned networks • Technical • Information

Thank you