FAIRMODE WG2 Urban Emission Inventories Activities 2014-2016 Hugo Denier van der Gon, Rafael Borge, Julio Lumbreras, Leonor Tarrason 7 th FAIRMODE Plenary Meeting, Baveno, Italy, 11-12 th February 2014
Outline 1. Motivation 2. Implications to other working groups 3. Proposed Work Plan for 2014 4. Request to participants for the Technical meeting 5. Questions to discussion
FAIRMODE review of air quality legislation In 2012, FAIRMODE identified the following major applications of models within the Air Quality Directives: 1. Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish the population exposure 2. Forecasting air quality levels for short term mitigation and public information and warnings 3. Source allocation to determine of the origin of exceedances and provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies 4. Evaluation of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances … reflected in today’s FAIRMODE structure
e Urban Emission Inventories
Urban air pollution continues to be a problem Air pollution in Oslo
Oslo kommune Bymiljøetaten Better City Air: Air Quality Forecast Public AQ Forecast Air Quality Forecast for Oslo: The air quality was good this morning, Wednesday March 13, at 8:00: In the afternoon moderate air quality is expected in the downtown area and along the main road network 1 , and moderate to poor air quality along the main throughfares 2 . Road dust and exhaust are the main sources. In the Example of an air quality evening moderate air quality is also expected in areas with extensive domestic wood burning 3 . Good air quality is expected in the remaining city areas. forecast issued to the Forecast for tomorrow, Thursday March 14: Moderate to poor air quality is expected in the downtown area and along the main road network, and poor to very poor air quality along the public on 13 th March 2013, main throughfares. The highest concentration levels are expected during rush hours. Road dust and exhaust are the main sources. In the evening moderate air quality, due to combustion particles, is expected in areas with extensive domestic wood burning. Good air quality is expected in the by the Oslo City remaining city areas. Environment Authority. Yesterday Today Tomorrow I går I dag I morgen Svært forurenset Very poor Mye forurenset Poo r Noe forurenset Moderate Lite forurenset Good Published on the Net, and I går I går I dag I dag I morgen I morgen F IGUR 1. V ARIATION IN THE A IR Q UALITY I NDEX in local newspapers. FOR O SLO (V ALID FOR THE CITY AREA ). F IGURE 2 ( RIGHT ). D AILY AVERAGE CONCENTRATIONS OF PM 10 EXPECTED ALONG THE MAIN ROAD NETWORK F IGURE 2 ( RIGHT ). D AILY AVERAGE Available ~ 08:00 – 09:00 TOMORROW , THURSDAY PÅ KARTET . CONCENTRATIONS OF PM 10 EXPECTED ALONG THE MAIN ROAD NETWORK TOMORROW , THURSDAY PÅ KARTET . Presently the forecast is H EALTH EFFECTS RELATED TO THE 4 APPLIED FORECAST CLASSES Health effect Naming made in Norwegian. Little or no health effect. Good Health effects can occur for asthmatic people close to the main road network, especially when Moderate excercising. Asthmatics and people with serious cardiovascular- or lung diseases should avoid staying outdoor Poor during longer periods in areas of poor air quality. Asthmatics and people with serious cardiovascular- or lung diseases should not stay outdoor in areas of poor air quality. Small children should avoid staying outdoor during longer periods in Very poor areas ofvery poor air quality . Irritation in the mucous membrane and uneasiness can occur incidentally for healthy people. 1 ” Main road network ” is Ring 1, Ring 2, Ullevålsveien and roads of similar traffic load. 2 ” Main throughfares ” is Ring 3, E6 and E18. 3 “ Areas with extensive domestic wood burning ” is Grünerløkka, Sagene, Torshov, Frogner og Majorstuen
Urban inventories needed for all activities in FAIRMODE 1. Forecasting, urban planning and local management practices 2. Assessment of urban air quality and exposure (ususally for this purpose approaches are centralised, measurements and models are used) 3. Reporting – local input to national emission inventories 4. Source apportionment (through modelling) 5. Evaluation of measures (through modelling, in connection to national projections)
Importance of emission inventories is firmly established in the FAIRMODE recommendations (#4) Recommendation : FAIRMODE recommends to investigate and improve Will it happen? the compilation, consistency and quality assurance of emissions data suitable for AQ modeling under the directive Proposed actions : • Emissions are not mentioned in the AQD and the need to work to increase the quality of emission inputs needs to be identified • Promote guidance initiatives for the compilation of emission data for AQ models under the directives • Support competence building initiatives to secure the consistency of detailed bottom-up emission inventories with those compiled for regulatory purposes at local, national and European scale …. from SG3 perspective this a major accomplishment 8
Fairmode work plan 2014-2016 9
New work plan based on Lessons learned from SG3 Questionnaire 1. Urban emission inventories A list of 30 selected people was prepared and are generally not consistent contacted, including national focal points from with national inventories 15 countries (70% reported non-links) 12 answers: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain (2), and UK (3) 2. Urban inventories focus mostly on the traffic sector 100% 90% 3. Urban inventories generally 80% 70% use bottom-up approaches 60% No 50% for Traffic sector, for others 40% Yes sectors downscaling from 30% 20% top-down inventories is used 10% 0% to 1-5 km 2 1. Are you involved in 2. Are you involved in 3. Does your country 4. If Q3 =yes, is this 5. If Q3 =yes, w ould construction / use of construction / use of - to your know ledge - urban inventory you call the city scale a national emission a local / urban / city have 1 or more urban directly connected to inventory an 4. No direct link between inventory? emission inventory / city scale EIs? the national EI? independent (bottom- emissions and scenarios (EI)? up) Emission Inventory?
Urban Emissions workplan 2014 2015 2016 Traffic Benchmarking GHG and AQ emissions Traffic emissions emissions from methodologies traffic review Link to TFEIP Link to MACC Link to ICLEI emission work Determination Differences Guidance on of good between national traffic practices for and urban traffic emissions traffic inventories methodology emissions FAIRMODE WG2 Emission Inventories at urban scale 11
DOWNSCALING APPROACH TO URBAN SCALE INVENTORIES Using national EIs and MACC / MEGAPOLI 2005 PM10 total spatial distribution proxies we make a down-scaled emission map Cases: Paris & Cases: Paris & London – both London – both ~15% of the ~15% of the national national population in population in these cities these cities Hugo Denier van der Gon 11-04-2013 FAIRMODE SG3
ALTERNATIVE APPROACH: bottom-up emission models, with information on the vehicle stock, traffic volume and vehicle emission factors
EF: Large emission differences Model Motor type CO 2 NO x NO 2 HP (g/km) (mg/km) (mg/km) Toyota Prius Gasoline/EL 89 6 0,6 136 Hybrid VW Golf 1,4 TSI aut Gasoline 138 25 2,5 122 Audi A3 2,0 TDI aut Diesel 143 142 71,5 140 BMW 118 d aut Diesel 140 158 79 143 SmartForTwo Diesel 86 160 79 54 NO 2 conservativte share 10% for gasoline, 50% for diesel. NO 2 emissions: • Hybrid vs Gasoline, a factor of 4 • Gasoline vs Diesel, a factor of 30 • Hybrid vs Diesel, a factor of 125
Emission factors Difference between EDC tests and actual driving conditions for diesel cars Laboratory tests at statutory and Laboratory tests with actual urban urban driving conditions at + 23 C driving conditions at -7 C Hagman, 2011; Alvarez et al, 2008
Evaluation of the NO 2 Prognosis 200 RV4 Aker sykehus | NO2 | 0 - 24 h Prognosis | (µg/m3) Rv 4, Aker sykehus (Urban street station)| NO2 | Observations | (µg/m3) 160 120 80 40 0 2012.11.20 2012.11.23 2012.11.26 2012.11.29 2012.12.02 2012.12.05 2012.12.08 2012.12.11 2012.12.14 2012.12.17 2012.12.20 2012.12.23 2012.12.26 Bias = 3.5 % Correlation = 0.64
Comparison of the 2 approaches in Paris The emission authority in Paris is AirParif (http://www.airparif.asso.fr/). • Emission inventory for the Ile-de-France region incl. Paris • To keep consistency we take over complete Ile-de-France region • • Compare local bottom-up inventory to European down-scaled inventory per sector Ile de France emissions of PM10 Ile de France emissions of NOx 25000 70000 60000 20000 50000 Emission (ton) Emission (ton) 15000 40000 TNO_MP_2005 TNO_MP_2005 AirParif AirParif 30000 10000 20000 5000 10000 0 0 Hugo Denier van der Gon 11-04-2013 FAIRMODE SG3 SNAP SNAP
Evaluation of the PM 10 Prognosis 300 Manglerud | PM10 | 0 - 24 h Prognosis | (µg/m3) Manglerud (Urban street station) | PM10 | Observations | (µg/m3) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2013.03.01 2013.03.03 2013.03.05 2013.03.07 2013.03.09 2013.03.11 2013.03.13 2013.03.15 2013.03.17 2013.03.19 2013.03.21 2013.03.23 2013.03.25 2013.03.27 2013.03.29 Bias = -0.3 % Correlation = 0.55
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