Update on Indicator work A&D and an update from harbour porpoise - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Update on Indicator work A&D …and an update from harbour porpoise surveys in Germany SEAL 12 Tallinn, Estonia

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Very obviously a SAMBAH Map Carlén et al. 2018: Basin-scale distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Sea provides basis for effective conservation actions. Biological Conservation, 226(June), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.06.031

Mini SCANS Viquerat et al. 2014: Abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic, Belt Seas and Kattegat. Marine Biology, 161(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227 -013-2374-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-013-2374-6

Block Density CV Abundance CL low CL high 1 1.33 0.472 31,249 6,111 159,786 2 1.04 0.304 42,324 23,368 76,658 Total 1.15 0.285 73,573 39,383 137,443 https://synergy.st-andrews.ac.uk/scans3/

Indicator Trends in density and distributi on Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

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Bedeutung für zukünftige internationale Monitoringbestrebungen Scale esment ent Unit Sca Asses Uni Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

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Survey areas 2002 - 2016

Abundance Density Average group size Effort Area CV [Animals] [Animals /km²] [Animals/ group] [km] 3,834 (2,237 – 0.2303 (0.1344 – Total 1.12 0.2779 2,457 6,796) 0.4082) 0.1738 (0.0545 – E 820 (257 – 1,750) 1.16 0.4390 745 0.3708) 0.2436 (0.1269 – FE 620 (323 – 1,156) 1.21 0.3417 411 0.4545) 0.1904 (0.0741 – FW 893 (347 – 1,916) 1.17 0.4169 710 0.4088) 1,501 (750 – 0.3198 (0.1598 – GW 1.04 0.3176 592 2,713) 0.5778)

Summer Averages Campaigns : 2002-2006 • 2008 • 2010 • • 2011 2013 • 2015 • https://geodienste.bfn.de/schweinswalverbreitung

Survey areas 2017 - 2021 I – westliche Ostsee (Kieler Förde) J – Fehmarn K – Pommersche Bucht West L – Pommersche Bucht Ost M – Greifswalder Bodden N – Oderbank

19 16.10.2018 19

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Line transect sampling  Ermöglicht effektive Abdeckung grosser Gebiete in kurzer Zeit  Möglich von unterschiedlichen Plattformen (Schiff, Flugzeug)  Standardisiert durch die international etablierte SCANS Methodik

Line transect distance sampling • Konstante Bewegung entlang des Transekts • Messung rechtwinkliger Distanzen der α h Sichtungen zum Transekt über Winkel α und d konstante Flughöhe h • Konzentration auf Tiere unmittelbar auf der Linie

Detectionfunction μ = effektive Streifenbreite → Variiert je nach Bedingungen auf dem Transekt # Sichtungen w (Datenbeschnitt) Distanzklassen

Estimating the abundance Gesamtfläche des Anzahl der Sichtungen unter g uten Untersuchungsgebiets und m oderaten Bedingungen   n A n Mittlere   = × + × ˆ g v m N s   beobachtete µ µ v v ˆ ˆ L   Gruppengröße v g m Transektstrecke, die on effektive Streifenbreite μ für g ute und effort beflogen wurde m oderate Bedingungen

ends Bayes Bayes Tr Trends

Trending and bending • Apparently densities are going down in the German Baltic Sea • But this is not yet a trend Dichte

Trending and bending Proper Bayesian analysis of an anonymous survey area in Germany, not yet finished (therefore anonymised) -6.7% (frequentist analysis) versus -0.9% (baysesian analysis)

Trending and bending Kruschke JK, Liddell TM. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective. Psychon Bull Rev. 2017. doi: 10.3758/s13423-016-1221-4. PubMed PMID: 28176294.