Unlocking the Potential of Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria‟s Transformation Agenda for Agriculture Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, PhD (Purdue) Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Presented at the Symposium on „Growing food: New places, new technologies‟ Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies April 17 th 2012 Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 0
Low Agricultural Productivity is at the heart of food insecurity in Africa 6 China S.Asia SS Africa Cereal Yields t/ha 5 4 3 2 1 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 2010… 1996 Source: FAOSTAT (2001) Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Netherlands Vietnam Japan UK China Fert rtil ilizer izer use France Brazil per ha in USA sub-Sa Saharan aran India South Africa Afri Af rica ca is is the Cuba lowe west t in the Benin Malawi wo world Ethiopia Mali Burkina Faso Nigeria Tanzania Mozambique Guinea Ghana Uganda 600 kg/ha 100 200 300 400 500 0 Source: FAOSTAT, July 2003; Norman Borlaug, 2004 Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Why the green revolution bypassed Africa 1. Focus was on wheat and rice, which were not major crops in Africa 2. Africa has a more diverse agro-ecological environment than Asia 3. While Asia has homogenous irrigated areas, Africa is dominated by rain-fed agricultural 4. Weak political will in Africa compared to Asia 5. African countries had weaker infrastructure, policies and institutions to support farmers Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Technologies now exist to allow Africa to feed itself New Rice for Africa (NERICA) Africa’s rice imports has risen from 8.5 Billion USD in 1986 to close to 150 Billion USD per year in 1980-2000 over 200 new varieties of rice were released and generated annual income of US$ 375-850 Million High Yielding Cassava Varieties Pro Vitamin A Cassava in Nigeria To save 1.5 Billion USD in GDP loss to vitamin and mineral deficiencies Orange Flesh Sweet Potato Water Efficient Maize for Africa Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa 20-30% yield increase, Yield stability Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
The new gene revolution should not bypass Africa – Biotechnology offers great potential to help feed Africa – Bt-cotton is growing in West Africa and South Africa – Successful development and testing of GM maize in Kenya and South Africa, and GM bananas in Uganda, to address pest and disease complexes – Challenges that must be overcome for gene revolution Conventional breeding still holds the best option Public research institutions are dominant, not private research institutions Unlike in green revolution in Asia, seeds from gene revolution are commercial, not public goods (farmers need to be able to reuse seeds) Limited public-private partnerships for sharing proprietary technologies for crops of importance for the (Africa Agricultural Technology Foundation) Weak biosafety regulatory framework in many countries Environmental and consumer safety issues Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
African leaders are combining political will with technologies, markets and institutional support for farmers “We must feed ourselves. I will not suffer the indignity of begging for food” Late Dr Bingu wa Mutharika President of Malawi Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Tipping Point on Hunger in Africa: Malawi achieves food self sufficiency 2005/06: $50 Million subsidy with Government distribution 2006/07: $60 Million “smart subsidy” Maize green revolution: 400,000 MT surplus in 2005/06 900,000 MT surplus in 2007 Malawi exported 400,000 MT of maize to Zimbabwe Malawi donated 10,000 MT of maize to Lesotho and Swaziland Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
African Governments’ decided to devote 10% of National Budget for Agriculture: CAADP Maputo Declaration Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development |
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 10
Nigeria is an untapped potential agricultural power house 84 Million Ha of Arable Land; 40% utilization Land 165 Million people, 279 Billion Cubic Large Agricultural projected to grow Meters of Surface Internal Water to 470 Million by Water Potential Markets Untapped irrigation 2050 potential with 3 of the 8 major river systems in Africa. 110 Million Youth in the Labor work force in 2020 Low wages for agricultural intensification Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 11
Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of groundnuts Our former glory in the global trade of groundnut – Circa 1961 Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by China, USA and Argentina Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes for shelled groundnut Share of world‟s shelled groundnut exports in 1961* 1961 – 2008* Measure: % of world trade Measure: Thousands of metric tons Nigeria‟s Exports Global Exports 0% 16% Others Nigeria Our competitors maintained their Global market-share trend of shelled groundnut among key producers** dominance due to strong marketing Measure: Percent of global trade of shelled Groundnut USA organizations that linked the farmers to markets and hence were able to meet China new strict sanitary and phytosanitary Argentina requirements, particularly for Aflatoxin, a serious food toxin. Nigeria New technologies, Aflasafe, have been 2008 developed in Nigeria by IITA to enable Nigeria meet the new strict sanitary and phytosanitary requirements. *FAO ** Doreo Analysis, FAO Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 12
Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of palm oil Our former glory in global trade of palm oil – Circa 1961 Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Malaysia Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961 – 2008** Share of world‟s palm oil exports in 1961* Measure: Thousands of metric tons Measure: % of world trade Nigeria‟s Exports Global Exports 4% 9% Others Nigeria While Nigeria declined rapidly, the industry grew even faster to over 33 Global market-share trend of palm oil among key producers** Measure: Percent of global trade of palm oil Million metric tons. Malaysia Our competitors continued to invest in their agricultural sector R&D to develop Indonesia higher yielding varieties and remain competitive Malaysia now controls 40% of the Nigeria world trade of Oil Palm products valued 2008 at over US$18 Billion *FAO ** Doreo Analysis, FAO Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 13
Nigeria's stagnation in the world trade of cocoa Our former glory in global trade of cocoa – Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Cote d„Ivoire Circa 1961 Nigeria‟s export volumes 1961 – 2008* Share of world‟s cocoa exports in 1961* Cocoa Bean Price ** Measure: Thousands of metric tons Measure : US$ per metric ton Measure: % of world trade Nigeria‟s exports 0.4% Others Nigeria 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 While Nigeria‟s production stagnated, Global market-share trend of cocoa among key producers*** the industry grew to over 2.7 Million MT. Measure: Percent of global trade of cocoa Our competitors maintained their Cote d„Ivoire dominance due to strong marketing organizations Ghana Our stagnation has meant we have Indonesia been unable to benefit fully from rapidly Nigeria rising global prices. 2008 *FAO ** Index Mundi *** Doreo Analysis, FAO Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 14
Nigeria's lost glory in the world trade of cotton Our former position in global trade of cotton – Circa 1961 Nigeria‟s dominance was eclipsed by Mali and Burkina Faso Nigeria‟s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961 – 2008* Share of the world‟s cotton exports in 1961* Measure: Thousands of metric tons Measure: % of world trade Nigeria‟s exports Global exports 1% 2% Others Nigeria In 1961, Nigeria was the major West Global market-share trend of Cotton among key West African producers ** African cotton exporter , however, its Measure: Percent of global trade of Cotton Mali prominence has been eclipsed by Mali and Burkina Faso. Burkina Our competitors maintained their Faso dominance due to strong marketing organizations, that linked the farmers to Nigeria markets and provided support in the 2008 form of improved planting materials and fertilizer and the ability to meet quality *FAO **Doreo Analysis, FAO standards. Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development | 15
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