United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

United Nations Department of Political Affairs: Conflict Assessments and Strategies Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi Conflicting Methodologies: A Comparison of Major Conflict Analyses and Lessons for the UN System By Joanna (Jojo) Da-Sylva, Jenny Hughes, and Bijal Patel • Preventive Diplomacy and Combustibles with Regard to Electoral Violence: Case Studies and Literature Review By Otilia Mirambeaux and Elizabeth Buckley • Afghanistan Elections: Lessons Learned and Recommendations for Electoral Reform By Anthony B. Lopez and Anna Novick Practicum Presentation The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs

Conflicting Methodologies: A Comparison of Major Conflict Analyses and their Lessons for the UN System Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi By Bijal Patel, Jenny Hughes and Joanna (Jojo) Da-Sylva

The challenge: • Many Conflict Analysis methodologies available • Lack of guidance on how to translate findings into effective strategy and practice Our objective: • The key objective is to make recommendations to strengthen the Strategic Assessment’s process and product • We review the methodologies, processes, and tactics of CAs and the UN’s Strategic Assessment

Our Methodology • Studied conflict assessment methodologies • Developed matrix to compare and contrast methodologies • Conducted interviews • In depth study of Somali conflict assessments • Recommendations

Matrix: Comparison of Methodologies DFID: Alleviate Poverty  Development Multi-stakeholder, focusing on donors. To predict and assess the potential or Conducting conflict Assessments Oriented. Mainly international and regional orgs., actual impact of development Guidance Notes, 2002 but also national and local. assistance on the dynamics of peace and conflict. The World Bank: The Conflict Analysis Poverty Alleviation and Resiliency Host governments and potentially civil To help bank teams consider factors Framework, 2005 society; local and international partners; affecting conflict and ensure support to other development actors. poverty reduction strategy papers and reinforce resilience to violent conflict. Development focused UNDP: Framework for Conflict Analysis, Multi-stakeholder, high involvement and Analyzing causes of conflict to plan a 2004 participation from national government common framework that will identify key elements of peace-building, defined as structures, mechanisms, processes, and institutions. FEWER Prevention of conflict Diplomatic and development actors, Conflict analysis is the center of this ( Network for Peace-Building, Center for mainly desk officers and policy makers in methodology. It provides an analytical and Conflict Research): Conflict Analysis and foreign policy and development action framework, which will help plan Response Definition-- Methodology, 2001 preliminary responses to early warning. department. Indigenous and international NGOs engaged in early warning. CPR Network (Conflict Prevention and Development oriented guide for those International Donors and agencies, local Development of practical tools, Post-Conflict Reconstruction Network): working in Conflict Prevention and Post- actors development of lessons learned and Early Warning and Early Response Conflict Reconstruction. applying them in the field, and bridging Handbook between policy research and operations. USAID: Conflict prevention, resiliency agencies on the ground, other Incorporates medium and long term Conflict Vulnerability Analysis (CVA) stakeholders analysis to evaluate the likelihood that a country will descend into violent conflict. Focuses on identifying possible USAID program initiatives that may strengthen the country’s capacity to deal with conflict risk factors.

Case Study: Somalia • Compare UK Department of International Development (DFID) and UN Strategic Assessment processes to distinguish best practices • Results of the UN Strategic Assessment in Somalia • Assess the UN Strategic Assessment

UNDPA Process • Inclusive conflict assessment • Process: desk review, fieldwork and consultations with stakeholders, civil society, NGOs, etc. • Priorities identified

Results of Strategic Assessment in Somalia • Unsuccessful because of no common expectations • Strengthened cooperation among UN agencies • Received funds • Directed senior level attention • Lost support of Special Representative of the Secretary General • Two-page version of report circulated

Problems Specific to the UN Strategic Assessment in Somalia • No buy-in from Special Representative of the Secretary General • Lack of security • Location of the agency • Lack of cooperation between DPKO and UNDPA • No security expertise on the UN team • Disagreements between the development arm and the humanitarian arm • Lack of senior level staff

Strengths of Conflict Assessments • Knowledge at local level • Team composition • Bring actors together

Difficulties of Conflict Assessments • Shortage of staff • Junior level staff • Political interest • Buy-in and cooperation • Lack of communication and coherence • Accountability and follow-up • Implementation

Recommendations for Effective Conflict Assessments • Communication • Competitive advantage • Support of Special Representative of Secretary General and Policy Committee • Frequent field visits • Goals, long term objectives • Rapid Response strategy • Increased time to write and discuss • Dissemination strategy • Follow-up mechanisms • Plan into policy

Preventive Diplomacy and Combustibles with Regard to Electoral Violence: Case Studies and a Literature Review Case Studies from: Literature Reviews from: Burundi Kenya AAI Nigeria Arend Lijphart Rwanda GPPAC Sierra Leone Jack Snyder Sri Lanka Timothy Sisk ELIZABETH BUCKLEY OTILIA MIRAMBEAUX Advisor: AMBASSADOR RAFAT MAHDI Photo from: http://www.flickr.com/photos/oaxacania/3211279323/in/pool-kenyaelections2008

ASSIGNMENT ROADMAP • Coherent definition of terms The Project: • Explore CAUSES & • Literature Review DYNAMICS around • The Findings: electoral violence and Issue Areas TOOLS to prevent such • Media violence • Constitution & Power-sharing • Conduct A • Prosecution of perpetrators • Incumbency & Postponement THOROUGH • Military Expenditure REVIEW of academic and policy literature on preventive diplomacy and electoral violence

COHERENT DEFINITION OF TERMS The period surrounding national elections is always a time of HEIGHTENED TENSION: ELECTORAL VIOLENCE exploits this tension with the purpose of influencing electoral outcomes. • This phenomenon differs from POLITICAL VIOLENCE in that it occurs only in the period immediately before, during and after elections. • Certain conditions, or COMBUSTIBLES , create a favorable environment for electoral violence as a means of achieving political goals. • PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY refers to the methods employed by actors attempting to defuse the heightened tension before it is exploited.

LITERATURE REVIEW • Sisk, Timothy. Elections in Fragile States: Between Voice and Violence. 2008. • Bratic, Vladimir and Lisa Schrich. How and When to Use the Media for Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding. 2007. • Ajayeoba, Ayodeji. Avoiding Electoral Violence: a comparative overview. 2009. • Lijphart, Arend. Constitutional Design for Divided Societies. 2004. • Snyder, Jack. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict . 2000.

MEDIA Relevant Case Studies : Burundi, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka Relevant Literature Reviews : GPAAC • Destructive aspects: • Seven Roles of Media – IMMEDIACY • Electoral Violence and – DRAMA Media intersect at: – SIMPLICITY – INFORMATION – ETHNOCENTRISM PROVIDER AND • Positive Aspects: INTERPRETER – WATCHDOG – DEPICTING – GATEKEEPER – SHARING • ABCs of change – CONDEMNING

CONSTITUTION & POWER-SHARING Relevant Case Studies : Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya Relevant Literature Reviews: Lijphart, Sisk • Implementation of EXISTING CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS regarding election commissions, oversight and land issues • PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION , parliaments, strong constitution writing, method of selection of the head of state, nonterritorial autonomy • Weak constitutions as a HAVEN FOR DICTATORIAL POWERS

PROSECUTION OF PERPETRATORS Relevant Case Studies : Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi Relevant Literature Reviews: Snyder • Prosecution of perpetrators of electoral violence domestically as a means of BUILDING CONFIDENCE in the government • Full COOPERATION with international initiatives to prosecute perpetrators • ZERO TOLERANCE policy for violence surrounding elections

INCUMBENCY & POSTPONEMENT Relevant Case Studies : (Prev elect) Nigeria, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Kenya, (next elect) Burundi, Sierra Leone Relevant Literature Reviews: AAI, Sisk INCUMBENCY POSTPONEMENT • High PERSONAL • Justified vs. STAKE Manipulation • Term allows DIVISION • Both cases present more to grow, deepen time for FRUSTRATION • Electoral Bodies often • SUSPICION especially seen as EXTENDED BRANCHES of if lack of confidence is Presidential powers already an issue