Understanding Local Housing Markets House Price to Earnings Ratio - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Understanding Local Housing Markets

House Price to Earnings Ratio Residential Analysts Source: ONS UK 9.0 8.0 House price to earnings ratio 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Residential Analysts The housing debate is “bedevilled by rival simplifications” Michael Edwards 2015

Lack of Supply Residential Analysts Source: MHCLG England 400,000 Unknown Housing Associations 350,000 Local Authorities Private Enterprise 300,000 250,000 Completions 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Financialisation of Housing Residential Analysts Source: ONS, UK Finance UK £250,000 Actual House Price Modelled £200,000 House Price Nominal house price (uses average wage, average mortgage rate £150,000 net of MIRAS, repayments:30%, & LTV:70%) £100,000 £50,000 £0 Dec 1971 Dec 2013 Dec 2017 Dec 1969 Dec 1973 Dec 1975 Dec 1977 Dec 1979 Dec 1981 Dec 1983 Dec 1985 Dec 1987 Dec 1989 Dec 1991 Dec 1993 Dec 1995 Dec 1997 Dec 1999 Dec 2001 Dec 2003 Dec 2005 Dec 2007 Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Dec 2015

Distribution of Housing Residential Analysts Source: calculated using EHS 2015 stock data England 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 63,000,000 30,000,000 54,000,000 20,000,000 37,000,000 10,000,000 0 Household Population Required Bedrooms Bedrooms

Quality of Housing Residential Analysts Source: EHS 2015 England Post 2002 30% 1981-2002 1965-80 Percent of properties in tenure 1945-64 25% 1919-44 pre 1919 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Owner Occupied Private Rented Local Authority Housing Association

Annual change Analysts Residential 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2000 2001 2002 Source: ONS Weak Demand 2003 2004 Inflation Wages 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sky News Research Residential Analysts

Five Biggest Housing Crises Residential Analysts Source: Residential Analysts

Multiple Housing Issues Residential Analysts Source: Residential Analysts High House Prices Lack of New Supply High Cost of Housing Turnover of Existing Housing Low Income Renters Distribution of Housing Financialisation of Housing Homelessness Falling Home-Ownership Weak Demographic Demand Social Mobility Quality of Housing Weak Economic Demand Ageing Population Climate Change

Providing Advice & Guidance Residential Analysts Source: Residential Analysts

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