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uncertainty Dr Sara Walker Newcastle University Modelling whole - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling whole energy systems and embedding uncertainty Dr Sara Walker Newcastle University Modelling whole energy systems Congested Electrical Distribution Network or outage on electrical network with DG Power to gas Blend


  1. Modelling whole energy systems and embedding uncertainty Dr Sara Walker Newcastle University

  2. Modelling whole energy systems • Congested Electrical Distribution Network or outage on electrical network with DG • Power to gas • Blend Hydrogen • Transport in gas network use for heat, transport or back to power where electrical network heavily loaded, EVs ? • Decarbonises both electrical and gas systems • Expensive Electro-chemical storage at limited scale • Gas network is inherently a large storage system • Explore if and how to use this ? • Dual Fuel Appliances • Demand side response options become much more exciting and realistic and less time limited

  3. Early Output Highlights – Multi Vector Modelling Electricity Gas distribution distribution network network ELY+P2G Gas transmission network CHP Distribution networks: Base Case

  4. Early Output Highlights – Multi Vector Modelling Electricity Gas distribution distribution network network Rather than curtail the generation, utilise to generate Hydrogen to blend into the gas network ELY+P2G Gas can be used to Fuel Vehicles Gas transmission network CHP Distribution networks: Scenario1: Fault in the electricity network

  5. Adding uncertainty -demand

  6. Model parameter in inputs Description Example Typical Uncertainty Heating Natural gas boiler serving a radiator central heating system Heating setpoint (setback) temperatures 19°C (16°C) 17.5°C-20.5°C Ventilation Manually operated natural ventilation (mech extract to family bathroom and ensuite) Gas boiler seasonal efficiency 65% (20 years old non-condensing gas-fired system boiler - 77°C/55°C F+R) 60% - 75% Heating schedule 02:00-11:00 & 16:00-24:00 DHW consumption 0.3 litre/m2/day Natural ventilation rate (per person) Highly stochastic, controlled by occupants via openable windows. Cooling setpoint/setback temperatures Uncontrolled 1.4 W/m 2 (manually controlled) to achieve 200 lux Nominal lighting power density 2.2 W/m2 /100 Lux Occupants 2 people in total Total small power gains [a] 6 W/m2 allowed for in overheating calculations. 3 W/m2 Fabric U-values 3mm self-cleaning glass (outer), 20mm Argon filled cavity, 3mm low emmisivity glass Glazing (with low emissivity coating) (inner). (U-Value 1.788 W/m 2 K - System total) ± 2% Glazing G Value (solar transmittance) 0.691 ± 5% External walls [b] ( W/m 2 K) 0.544 ± 15% Roof [c] (W/m 2 K) 0.213 ± 15% Floor [d] ( W/m 2 K) 0.337 ± 5% [f] Infiltration (ac/h) [e] 0.5 0.2 - 0.95 [a] Electricity (ICT and appliances) 3 W/m2; Gas (Catering): 3W/m2 [b] 100mm brickwork, 50mm Stonewool insulation, 100mm blockwork, 10mm plasterboards (EXTERNAL WALL: stonewoll insulation [c] 25mm Clay tile roofing, loft space, 180mm glass fibre quilt insulation, 10mm plasterboards ( Insulation range [ 150mm -210mm]) [d] 100mm cast concrete, 7mm screed, 4mm high gauge polythene DPM, 5mm foil underlay, 15mm solid wood flooring [Foam- [e] Empirical values derived from table 4.16 (CIBSE Guide A) for a two storey property on normally exposed site [f] non-suspended ground floors with no air cavities have much greater thermal unity (BRE Conventions for U-valuecalculations 2006 edition)

  7. Parameter in input variation for uncertainty emulator 1000 simulations

  8. Preliminary ry results 25000 99.3% within 3 standard deviation range. Annual Gas Consumption 20000 observed 17437 15000 0 100 200 300 400 500 Design point

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