UMS Enrollment UMA UMaine Predicted Influence of External Factors - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

UMS Enrollment UMA UMaine Predicted Influence of External Factors UMF UMFK UMM UMPI USM

Outlook – External Factors Prior Year High School Grauates Prior Year Maine CPI VS Undergraduate Enrollment VS Undergraduate Enrollment 680,000 15,000 680,000 240.0 14,500 235.0 660,000 660,000 14,000 230.0 13,500 640,000 640,000 225.0 13,000 220.0 620,000 12,500 620,000 215.0 12,000 600,000 600,000 210.0 11,500 11,000 205.0 580,000 580,000 10,500 200.0 560,000 10,000 560,000 195.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Undergraduate PY HS GRAD Undergraduate PY_ME_CPI Maine GDP VS Undergraduate Enrollment 680,000 60,000 Do the external factors used by other Universities fit UMS 58,000 660,000 Enrollment Data. The Answer is: Very Closely 56,000 640,000 54,000 620,000 52,000 50,000 600,000 48,000 580,000 46,000 560,000 44,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2 Undergraduate Maine GDP

Outlook – Additional Consideration Weighted and Unweighted Billed Credit Hours Maine CPI Weighted in tuition dollars 280 300,000,000 740,000 260 720,000 250,000,000 700,000 240 200,000,000 MAINE CPI 680,000 Actual 220 150,000,000 660,000 Rob's Forecast 200 100,000,000 640,000 CEFC 50,000,000 180 620,000 - 600,000 160 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 2013 2018 2023 YEARS Weighted 2017 Value UnWeighted 3

Outlook – Additional Consideration Maine Prior Year High School Graduation Count 16 Thousands 14 Number of HS Graduates College-Going in the Fall Semester after High School 12 Graduation in Maine 10 16 8 Thousands 14.187 High School 13.174 14 6 Prediction 12 4 2 10 8179 8076 62% 62% 0 57% 57% 8 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years 6 72% 67% 4 Maine Market Share 2 Four Year and Above 0 40000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 35000 Full Year Headcount Total in the class Enrolled in college Maine colllege College outside Maine 30000 25000 20000 DOE & Mitchell UMS 15000 Institute 10000 Competition 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Years 4 Source: IPEDS DOE & Mitchell Institute: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/1238800/college-going-in-maine-july-2014-data-brief.pdf

Outlook – Impact of External Factors Model Predicts -7% Reduction in Billed Credit Hours Data doesn’t define destiny: New actions/programs can break trends. Graduate Billed Credit Hours Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours 70 700 Thousands Thousands 60 600 50 500 Credit Hours Credit Hours 40 400 Graduate Undergraduate 30 300 Prediction Prediction 20 200 10 100 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Years Years 5

Outlook – USM In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Out of State Undergraduate Billed UMS High School Feeder Hours Credit Hours PY Graduate Count 200 25 2,000 Thousands Thousands 1,950 Credit Hours 150 20 Credit Hours Graduates 1,900 15 100 Undergraduate 1,850 Undergraduate HS Feeder 10 50 1,800 Prediction Prediction Prediction 5 1,750 Alternate 0 0 1,700 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Years In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Graduate Billed Credit Hours 35 High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: Thousands 30 7 Bonny Eagle High School Thousands 6 25 Credit Hours Deering High School Credit Hours 5 Gorham High School 20 4 Portland High School 15 Graduate 3 Graduate Sanford High School 10 Prediction 2 Scarborough High School Prediction 5 1 Thornton Academy 0 0 Windham High School 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years 6

Outlook – UMPI In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours 30 12 Thousands Thousands 25 10 20 8 Credit Hours Credit Hours Undergraduate Undergraduate 15 6 Prediction Prediction 10 4 Alternate Alternate 5 2 0 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Presque Isle High School Feeders Prior Year Graduaton Count High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: 600 Ashland District School Caribou High School 500 Central Aroostook Jr-Sr H S Fort Fairfield Middle/High School 400 Graduates Hodgdon Middle/High School 300 Houlton High School HS Feeders Limestone Community School 200 Prediction ME Sch of Science & Mathematics Presque Isle High School 100 So Aroostook School 0 Washburn District High School 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years 7

Outlook – UM In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Out of State Undergraduate Billed UM High School Feeders Hours Credit Hours Prior Year Graduate Count 250 120 1900 Thousands Thousands 100 1850 200 Credit Hours Credit Hours Graduates 80 1800 150 60 1750 Undergraduate Undergraduate HS Graduates 100 40 1700 Prediction Prediction Prediction 50 20 1650 0 0 1600 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Years In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Graduate Billed Credit Hours 25 High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: Thousands 10 Bonny Eagle High School 20 Thousands Credit Hours Deering High School 8 Credit Hours 15 Gorham High School 6 Portland High School Graduate 10 Graduate Sanford High School 4 Prediction Scarborough High School 5 Prediction 2 Thornton Academy 0 0 Windham High School 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years 8

Outlook – UMFK In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours 35 8 Thousands Thousands 7 30 6 25 Credit Hours Credit Hours 5 20 Undergraduate 4 Undergraduate 15 Prediction 3 Prediction 10 Alternate 2 5 1 0 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Fort Kent High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count 1000 High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: 900 Caribou High School 800 Hermon High School 700 Houlton High School Graduates 600 Leavitt Area High School 500 Lewiston High School Graduates 400 Madawaska Middle/High School 300 Prediction Presque Isle High School 200 Wisdom Middle High School 100 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years 9

Outlook – UMA In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours 100 5 Thousands Thousands 90 4 80 4 70 3 Credit Hours Credit Hours 60 3 50 Undergraduate 2 Undergraduate 40 2 Prediction Prediction 30 1 20 1 10 0 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Augusta High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count 1800 High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: 1600 Bangor High School 1400 Camden Hills Regional 1200 Erskine Academy Graduates 1000 Gardiner Area High School 800 Maranacook Community High Graduates Medomak Valley High School 600 Prediction Messalonskee High School 400 Oxford Hills Comprehensive H S 200 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years 10

Outlook – UMF In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Out of State Undergraduate Billed Hours Credit Hours 60 14 Thousands Thousands 12 50 Credit Hours Credit Hours 10 40 8 30 6 Undergraduate Undergraduate 20 4 Prediction Prediction 10 2 - - 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours UMF High School Feeder PY Graduation Count High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: 4 Erskine Academy Thousands 4 3 Lawrence High School Thousands 3 Lewiston High School Credit Hours 2 HS Graduates 3 Messalonskee High School 2 2 Mt Abram Regional High School Graduate 2 Mt Blue High School Feeder HS 1 Prediction 1 Oxford Hills Comprehensive H S Prediction 1 1 Poland Regional H S - - Skowhegan Area High School 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Thornton Academy Years Years 11

Outlook – UMM In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours 16 5 Thousands Thousands 4 14 4 12 3 Credit Hours Credit Hours 10 3 Undergraduate 8 Undergraduate 2 Prediction 6 2 Prediction Alternate 4 1 2 1 0 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years Years Machias High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count 450 High S School ool Fe Feeders U Used: 400 Calais Middle/High School 350 Jonesport-Beals High School 300 Machias Memorial High School Graduates 250 Narraguagus High School 200 Shead High School Graduates Sumner Memorial High School 150 Prediction Washington Academy 100 Woodland Jr-Sr High School 50 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 Years 12