Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Elizabeth - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2016 www.colorado.gov/demography

Big Pict ure - 2014-2015 Pop Change US – 321.4 million, + 3.4 million or .79% • Colorado - 5,456,500 • Ranked 2 nd fastest 1.9% - ND, • 7 th absolute growth 101,000 – TX, FL, CA, • GA,WA, NC Range in Colorado • +15,000 to -400 • +5% to -3.5% •

Source: State Demography Office

State Demography Office v2014

Millennia l

Forecast

Median Home Value

Forecast s –Trends –Housing • Growth in race/ethnic diversity – especially at the young end. • Growth in Young and Aging • Growth in both high and low end service jobs. • Demographically Challenged Income • Growth Constraints? (costs, water)

Census Bureau

Why Are We Get t ing Old Fast ? Currently very few people over the age 65. • 4 th lowest share of all states in US (10%) ◦ Baby Boomers • ◦ Born 1946 – 1964 ◦ 1,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010) By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 125% • larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging) Transition age distribution from “young” to more • US average between 2010 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau

Growth in young adults Demographic due to migration Dividend AGE

Aging Issues –t o name a few • Numbers – both total change and % • Economy • Labor Force • Housing • Income • Health/Disabilities • Transportation • Public Finance

Housing and Household Trends Retirees – will they stay or go? – where will • they go? Migration? 38% of households over 65 are living alone • • Households at risk –especially single older women . Type of housing – demand by age. • Location choice related to amenities, health • services, transportation services, costs. Workers vs. non workers • ◦ Challenge in tight housing market. More people at home during the day. •

1,000,000 Households By Age Source: Census Bureau (1990, 2000) and State Demography Office (2010-2030) 900,000 March 2011 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 & Over

More Housing

125,000 more HU than HH 128,000 more HH than HU

Colorado Movers and Ownership By Age Lived in Same House 1 year Ago Home Ownership by Age of Householder By Age 15 to 24 years 15.2% 20 to 24 56.0% 25 to 34 years 43.8% 25 to 29 61.8% 35 to 44 years 65.2% 30 to 34 73.4% 45 to 54 years 73.9% 35 to 39 78.8% 55 to 59 years 78.7% 40 to 44 83.5% 60 to 64 years 81.0% 45 to 49 86.2% 65 to 74 years 82.2% 50 to 54 88.4% 75 to 84 years 78.9% 55 to 59 90.0% 85 years and over 62.8% 60 to 64 91.0% 65 to 69 93.0% 70 to 74 93.4% 75 and over 91.9% Source: ACS 1 year 2014

Income

Household Income… .it s fut ure is demographically challenged. Age distributions – “ End of “Demographic • Dividend” Occupational Mix – high and low service • More race/ethnicity diverse especially at • young end but achievement gap is growing as well. Household type and size – single and • smaller. Youth un and under employment - Long • term permanent impacts on earnings. State Demography Office

Take Aways Will Colorado maintain its economic and • amenity advantages? ◦ Everyone competing for best and brightest. Aging – changing the economy and housing. • Households growing faster than housing • units. Future Demand For Housing • ◦ Downward Pressure on Income ◦ Age Impact – both older end as well as Millennials ◦ More racially/ethnically diverse ◦ Watch Household Formation ◦ Watch Colorado’s relative unemployment

Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.Garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 www.colorado.gov/demography