Trade –Offs in Multi-Modal Handling of Goods … Balancing the Environment & Economics John E. Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.
No Where Is The Conflict Between Economic & Environmental Goals More Stark Than In Goods Movement!
For Years … CA’s Primary Economic Focus Has Been On Cleaning Up The Environment
Ozone…Increasing Conformance
PM 2.5 Improved
PM 10: A Challenge
Goal Is to Reduce Asthma & Cancer Risk From Airborne Toxics Cancers per million Source: SCAQMD, Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study II, March 2000
Port Clean Truck Program 230 to 1,450 Premature Deaths Will Be Avoided
On West Coast Near Asia Los Angeles Long Beach
CA Deep Water Ports Can Serve Ships Needing 50 feet of Water 8,000-Container Post-Panamax Ships
Port Container Volume Port Container Traffic Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach, 1990-2009 & Long Term (million TE 2008 42.5 42.5 42.2% U.S. Imported Containers 26.9% U.S. Exported Containers 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.5 7.5 8.2 9.5 9.6 10.611.8 13.114.215.8 15.7 14.3 11.8 14.3 TEU=20 foot equivalent container units Source: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach, Forecast by Global Insights
Demand For Added Warehousing Space Demand Square Feet Port Related 205,200,000 Non-Port Related 351,000,000 Total Additional Space Needed 556,400,000
Available Warehouse Space
Results: Build-Out About 2030 Sprawl is inevitable given demand & land availability
Trucks & Traffic Congestion
Lack of Rail Grade Separations Divides Cities
Increased Intermodal Yard Operations
Increased Air Cargo Operations
No Doubt Goods Movement Presents Challenges . . .
But on the other hand. . . “Give Me A One-Armed Economist” President Harry Truman
California Wage & Salary Employment Every Wage & Salary Job Created In California Since 1998 Has Been Lost Blue Collar Inland Empire Was Responsible for 42.3% of California’s Job Growth from 2000-2007
Unemployment Has Soared U.S. & California Unemployment History, 1983-2010 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% U.S. CA 1.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Department
Unemployment Hits Inland Areas The Hardest: So. California Unemployment Rates, August 2010 Inland vs. Coastal Counties Inland 15.3% 14.2% Coastal 13.0% 11.2% 10.6% 9.6% Los Angeles Ventura San Diego Orange Riverside San Bernardino Source: CA Employment Development Department
Modestly Educated Inland Adults Need Blue Collar Jobs: So. California Marginally Educated Adults, Southern California Percent, 25 & Over, 2008 Inland Coastal 49% 48% 45% 37% 36% 34% Source: American Communitu Survey, 2008
Heavily Hispanic Areas Affected Disproportionately: So. Calif. Hispanic Share of Population Southern California Counties, 2009 Inland 48.1% 48.0% Coastal 44.7% 38.5% 34.2% 31.3% San Bernardino Los Angeles Riverside Ventura Orange San Diego Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Unemployment Hits Inland Areas The Hardest: No. California Unemployment Rates, August 2010 Inland vs. Coastal Counties Inland 17.4% 16.6% 16.4% Coastal 15.4% 14.8% 14.3% 13.2% 11.7% 11.3% 11.1% 9.7% 9.1% 8.4% Stanislaus San Joaquin Fresno San Francisc Merced San Benito Madera Alameda San Mateo Tuolumne Santa Clara Marin Contra Cost Source: CA Employment Development Department
Modestly Educated Inland Adults Need Blue Collar Jobs: No. California Marginally Educated Adults, Extended Bay Area Percent 25% & Over, No College Class, 2009 Inland 57.2% 54.2% 51.9% 50.7% 50.3% 50.3% Coastal 34.8% 32.4% 30.7% 30.0% 28.1% 20.9% Stanislaus San Joaquin San Francisc Merced Madera Fresno San Benito Alameda Santa Clara San Mateo Marin Contra Cost Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Heavily Hispanics Areas Affected Disproportionately: No. Calif. Hispanic Share of Population Northern California Counties, 2009 Inland 53.1% 53.0% 51.7% 49.3% 40.3% 37.6% Coastal 26.3% 23.7% 23.2% 21.9% 14.7% 14.4% Stanislaus San Joaquin San Francisc San Benito Merced Madera Fresno Santa Clara San Mateo Alameda Contra Cost Marin Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Sectors With Few Educational Barriers To Entry Level Employment Mining ($96,996) Blue Collar With Manufacturing ($47,933) Part Time Workers Logistics ($46,665) & Owner – Operator Drivers Wholesale ($43,492) Median Construction ($41,453) Retail Trade ($28,840) Gaming ($28,385) Hotel/Motel ($24,019) Agriculture ($22,793) Eating & Drinking ($15,132)
Public Policy Dilemma Lack of Blue Clean Air, Collar Jobs & Asthma & Cancer Poverty Are Are Health & Health & Social Social Justice Issues Justice Issues
After Years Of Focus on Cleaning Up The Environment . . . Blue Collar Job Creation Has Been CA’s Forgotten Need
Policy Suggestion #1 If We Require New Equipment … Its Time Regulators Did Something To Get It Made In California Otherwise All Investments For Environmental Clean-Up Are A Net Loss To California’s Economy
Policy Suggestion #2 If New Equipment Is Mandated … Firms Need To Be Given Enough Time To Use It & Amortize Its Cost ... Before Being Required To Install Still Newer Equipment Otherwise We Continue Raising The Cost of Doing Business In California & Cause Firms To Either Move or Put Their Growth Elsewhere
Policy Suggestion #3 Every Project Requires CEQA Approvals, With Lawsuits Almost Always Filed … Creation of Courts Specializing In CEQA Would Eliminate The Lengthy Delays This Imposes Judges Would Not Handle Criminal & Civil Matters & Would Become CEQA Experts. They Would Learn The Bad Actors Skirting The Law Or Using It Only to Delay Projects
Policy Suggestion #4 CA Needs To Fully Embrace Public Private Partnerships To Finance Its Infrastructure Given Federal & State Budgets Issues, Either We Allow Our Infrastructure To Continue Deteriorating or We Harness The Private Sector To Build Needed Projects
Green Job Difficulties Tesla Fisker Californians Designed Tesla & Fisker … BUT CA Costs Meant Both Would be Made Elsewhere ( New Mexico & Delaware ) Special Subsidies Were Used To Bring Tesla Home … Without Special Help Fisker Went To Delaware Without Out Major Changes … CA Will Create High Paying Design Jobs … and Low Paying Installation Jobs … But Few Green Production Jobs
Policy Suggestion #5 CA Relies Heavily On Command & Control In Its Policies Using Single Issue Regulatory Agencies They Have No Mandate To Worry About the Job Impacts of Their Actions If The State Is Seriously Concerned With Job Creation … There Is A Need For An Independent Counter-Weight With The Power To Analyze, Comment and Modify Decisions
There Is A Need To Balance The Policy Scales Lack of Blue Clean Air, Collar Jobs & Asthma & Cancer Poverty Are Are Health & Health & Social Social Justice Issues Justice Issues
www.johnhusing.com
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