WEBINAR TRADE CONFLICT BETWEEN KOREA + JAPAN A chance for Swiss exporters? 20.05.2020
INTRODUCTION
JACQUELINE TSCHUMI CONSULTANT JAPAN + SOUTH KOREA SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE
Partners A very warm «Thank you» to our partner 4
Agenda 5
WELCOME BY SWISSMEM
CHRISTOPH BLÄTTLER SECRETARY GENERAL SWISS MACHINE TOOL MANUFATURERS SWISSMEM
Downturn – chase opportunities ! Christoph Blättler Secretary SMTM, Head Korea Desk 8 | Korea: opportunities for Swiss exporters
Current direction of MEM-Business 9 | Korea: opportunities for Swiss exporters
Monthly Purchasing Managers Index (industry) Red = contraction of business April Source: FuW, 05.05.2020 https://www.fuw.ch/article/schwindende-hoffnung-fuer-die-konjunktur/ Ineichen Research & Management, Bloomberg, Markit/Grafik: FuW 10 | Korea: opportunities for Swiss exporters
Swiss MEM-Industry exports Jan to Mar 2020 Share of total MEM exports Change to same period of perceding year EU* (56.0%) -10.4% Asien (17.4%) -7.0% USA (14.1%) -6.0% Deutschland (25.6%) -11.6% China (5.6%) -10.0% Frankreich (5.1%) -18.0% Grossbritannien (4.0%) -4.8% Italien (4.0%) -19.5% Japan (2.2%) 0.6% Polen (1.9%) -11.1% Spanien (1.5%) -13.7% Indien (1.1%) -12.5% * Without Great Britain Russland (1.1%) 18.6% Brasilien (0.6%) -2.3% 11 | Korea: opportunities for Swiss exporters
SITUATION IN KOREA: CURRENT OPPORTUNITIES + THREATS
ROGER ZBINDEN HEAD SWISS BUSINESS HUB KOREA
Keyword COVID-19 in Korea
Update on Korea’s dealing with COVID -19 Status (as of May 18) • Status May 18 • 11’065 total infections (+15) • 263 deceased (+1) • 753’211 total tests conducted • No lockdown • Strict testing, tracking and isolating specific clusters to avoid second wave 16
Economic Outlook Post-Covid19 (IMF April 2020) Country 2020 (%) 2021 (%) World -3.0 5.8 USA -5.9 4.7 China 1.2 9.2 Euro Area -7.4 4.7 Germany -7.0 5.2 Italy -9.1 4.8 UK -6.5 4.0 France -7.2 4.5 Japan -5.2 3.0 Korea -1.2 3.4 17
Restriction of Movement of People Korea Immigration Service Available Flights and useful information (status 18 May) Offers information on the entry to Korea and status on suspension of visa-free entry: Airlines are flying directly from Incheon airport to Europe at the moment: - All incoming Koreans and foreign nationals are subject to 14-day mandatory quarantine - Asiana (Frankfurt) - British Airways (London): from 1 July, 2020 - If tested positive, they will be sent to either a - Korean Air (London/Paris/Amsterdam/Frankfurt) hospital or treatment center - KLM (Amsterdam) - LOT Polish Airlines (Budapest/Warsaw): from 2 - If tested negative, short-term staying travelers June, 2020 quarantine at facility for 14 days. Long-term - Lufthansa (FFM, MUC) from 1 June, 2020 staying travelers (including Koreans) must be in - Qatar Airways: via DOHA to most of the self-quarantine, either in their own residence or European cities in a designated facility http://www.immigration.go.kr/immigration_eng/index.do https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/korea- republic/en/home/representations/embassy.html Please be aware that this information can change at any time ! 18
Covid-19 Factsheet Korea Download available on https://www.s-ge.com/en/overview/covid-19- information-smes 19
Keyword Opportunities from the Trade Conflict with Japan in the MEM industries
Trade conflict between Korea and Japan Situation Action Japan • Looming historic and political grievances • Japan imposes strict export control between the neighboring countries swapped measures on 1’194 items (“ restricted items ”) over last summer to the economic and trade sphere Countermeasure Korea Impact Study • Korea defines Hundred Key Items (increase • Quantitative research identifies 66 specific to 338 on 11 May 2020) and additional MEM items (total 4’708) where dependence from MEM items with market opportunities for Japanese manufacturers have to be reduced Swiss MEM manufacturers (“ key items ”) 21
Data model applied in report Group 1 – 13 Items Group 2 – 12 Items Restricted key items with a Restricted key items with a total import ratio of at least total import ratio of at least Group 5 – 20 Items 50% of which more than 50% of which imports from 50% is imported from Japan. Japan value at least 30m Additional (mostly non- US$. restricted non-key) MEM items where Japanese manufacturers are ranked in the top 3 and Swiss imports Group 3 – 7 Items Group 4 – 14 Items are at least 5 million US$ on average in 2017-2019 Restricted key items with a Non-restricted key items with (Chapter 4 of report). total import ratio of less than a total import ratio of more 50% of which imports from than 50% of which imports Japan value at least 50m from Japan value at least US$. 40m US$ and show a high increase. 22
PRESENTATION OF THE REPORT: OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE SWISS MEM INDUSTRY
MIN-SEO KANG TRADE OFFICER SWISS BUSINESS HUB KOREA
How to use the report Phase I Identify your product Phase II Look for Strategy Elaborate your Strategy Phase III 25
How to use the report FOCUS REPORT MEM Opportunities in Korea Phase: Look for Strategy Elaborate your Strategy Identify your product Desc: • All items are indicated in HS • • In chapter 5 the report indicates Gain additional information for an informed decision how to enter Codes ➢ Several generic market entry the market or how to improve and market expansion • For all of the 66 items we your market activity in Korea with strategies tried to give S-GE and SBHK ➢ Short case studies ➢ Market flash (product description, size, statistics) ➢ Names of Japanese and global competitors to Swiss MEM manufacturers (where available) 26
Example 1 f 8545110000 Market Flash Description • Carbon electrodes, carbon brushes, lamp carbons, battery carbons and other articles of graphite or other carbon, with or without metal, of a kind used for electrical purposes Market Flash • The global market for Ceramin Matrix Composite is estimated to grow from 2019 to 2029 at a rate of 9.5% CAGR. The market volume in 2019 was $9,400M and is expected to grow to $23,300M. Growth in this category is led by the aerospace and defense market. Import Imports Mil. $ Country (2018) Balance (M.$) Export (M.$) Import (M.$) Japan (231.6) 0.0 231.6 2017 144.5 China (154.6) 1.5 156.1 India (43.4) 0.0 43.4 2018 470.9 Spain (23.1) 0.0 23.1 2019(3Q) 391.3 (16.4) 0.0 16.4 France 27
Example 2 f 9022192000 Market Flash • Apparatus based on the use of X-rays or of alpha, beta or gamma Description radiations, whether or not for medical, surgical, dental or veterinary uses, incl. radiography or radiotherapy apparatus, X-ray tubes and other X-ray generators, high tension generators, control panels and desks, screens, examination or treatment tables, chairs etc. Market Flash • The size of the X-ray apparatus system market in 2016 was $545M. The market is expected to grow between 2017 and 2023 at a rate of 6.51% CAGR to a value of $868M. Import Imports Mil. $ Country (2018) Balance (M.$) Export (M.$) Import (M.$) Japan (52.9) 0.6 53.5 2017 104.5 USA (19.8) 0.7 20.5 Germany (12.1) 0.4 12.5 2018 105.1 Israel (6.7) 0.0 6.7 2019(3Q) 52.7 (5.4) 0.0 5.4 UK 28
Example 3 f 8456 Market Flash • Machine-tools for working any material by removal of material, by laser Description or other light or photon beam, ultrasonic, electro-discharge, electro- chemical, electron beam, ionic-beam or plasma arc processes; water-jet cutting machines Market Size • Domestic production: 574,202 96 Market Size: Manufacturers • Exports: 240,999 671,020 • Imports: 337,817 9 Importers Unit: 1000 USD Import RANK Import country Imp. value (2017) Imp. value (2018) Imp. value (J-N 2019) 80,338 ( ▼ ) 1 Japan 109,549 124,415 2 China 40,646 53,993 65,997( ▲ ) 3 Switzerland 74,334 60,193 31,848 ( ▼ ) 18,384( ▼ ) 4 Germany 43,337 36,390 7,655( ▼ ) 5 Thailand 12,019 12,347 236,130 ( ▼ ) Total 380,478 337,817 29
Example 4 f 850110 Market Flash • Motors of an output not exceeding 37.5W Description (Low Capacity Motors) • Domestic production: 1,988,211 Market Size 85 Market Size: Manufacturers • Exports: 352,383 2,394,117 • Imports: 758,289 27 Importers Unit: 1000 USD RANK Import country Imp. value (2017) Imp. value (2018) Imp. value (J-N 2019) Import 360,856 ( ▼ ) 1 China 565,721 424,399 68,269( ▼ ) 2 Philippines 109,313 110,307 58,161( ▼ ) 3 Vietnam 68,749 80,901 42,134 ( ▼ ) 4 Japan 113,015 50,391 5 Switzerland 10,403 15,068 18,471 ( ▲ ) 611,657( ▼ ) Total 939,874 758,289 Unit: % Country/Month 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1-3 Monthly Statistics (%) Apr 2019 – Jan-Mar 2020 Switzerland 50.1 39.1 -0.9 -10.1 76.1 76.1 45.4 52.6 61.0 37.7 Japan 121.0 -31.0 58.6 26.5 -39.3 6.2 -5.2 -39.2 -43.7 -43.9 30
Recommend
More recommend
