Toll Rate Study For August 20, 2015 Board Meeting Toll Rate Study - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Toll Rate Study For August 20, 2015 Board Meeting

Toll Rate Study  Updated Traffic and Earnings Report (“Update Letter”) • Update of previous 2010 forecast • Review historical traffic and revenue trends through FY 2014 • Adjust forecast based on actual data since 2010 • Elasticity  Bridge: estimated from previous two toll increases  Parkway: estimated using the Northwest Florida Regional Planning Model • Developed updated traffic and revenue forecasts through FY 2040  Revisions after public information sessions • Updated SunPass participation rates for FY 2016 and future years • Adjusted percentage of frequent users

Mid-Bay Bridge & Spence Parkway Historical Traffic and Revenue Trend 20,000 18,000 Annual Traffic and Toll Revenue (1994 = 1.00) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Fiscal Year ending September 30 1994 2014 Historical Total Traffic Historical Total Toll Revenue Traffic - 1,896,661 Traffic - 8,466,994 Revenue - $3,204,321 Revenue - $18,147,451

Options  Eleven tolling options considered • Four options fully evaluated • Seven options eliminated from further evaluation

Options Evaluated  Do not change toll schedule  Increasing the cash/TBP toll rates (visitors)  Sustaining the SunPass discount amount (locals)  Implementing discounts for frequent SunPass users (commuters)

Options Not Carried Forward  Installing another electronic gantry on the Parkway  Indexing toll increases to the Consumer Price Index  Increasing tolls for multi-axle vehicles  Implementing an accommodation for low-wage earning workers by offering additional discounts to those who meet some predefined criteria such as a certain income level given the costs of managing program  Implementing different tolls by direction  Implementing toll discounts by time of day  Implementing congestion toll rates

Two-Tier Tolling Structure  Present basic toll structure: • Two-axle non-SunPass vehicles pay full toll • Two-axle SunPass vehicles pay a discounted toll • All 3+ axle vehicles pay the full toll according to the “N-1” formula regardless of method of payment

Three-Tier Tolling Structure  Present basic toll structure plus an additional discount (rebate) for frequent users • Two-axle non-SunPass vehicles pay the full toll • Two-axle SunPass vehicles pay a discounted toll • Two-axle SunPass vehicles making over 40 trips per month per SunPass account pay the lowest toll • Frequent users rebate is available to only personal SunPass accounts • Frequent users rebate is NOT available to commercial SunPass accounts • Number of trips are counted separately by toll plaza • All 3+ axle vehicles pay the full toll according to the “N-1” formula regardless of method of payment or number of trips per month

Analysis  Data & Assumptions • A toll collection factor for each facility was calculated to account uncollectible toll revenues. Toll collection factors of 0.99 and 0.85 were used for the Bridge and the Parkway, respectively, based on current experience. • The following elasticity factors were used in the calculations:  Mid-Bay Bridge: Non-SunPass: –0.189, SunPass: –0.164  Spence Parkway: Non-SunPass: –0.300, SunPass: –0.300 • SunPass usage will increase due to toll rate increase and additional discounts for SunPass users, and to account for the adoption of technology as well as for the anticipated inter-operability of toll collection systems in surrounding states. • SunPass participation rate was capped at 85 percent.

Public Comments  Major comments/inputs • Discount for frequent users • Make cash toll even dollar amount • Increase number of SunPass lanes • Reduced number of manned booths • Widen bridge to 4-lanes

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 1 Scenario 1 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 1 Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Present Toll (A) Scenario Facility Increase (A) Toll (A) Method Cash $3.00 N/A N/A Bridge 1 SunPass $2.00 N/A N/A No Toll Increase TBP (B) $1.50 N/A N/A (Do Nothing) Parkway SunPass $1.00 N/A N/A No Toll Increase Does not meet Targeted Revenue Current toll structure No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 2 Scenario 2 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 2 Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Scenario Facility Present Toll (A) Method Increase (A) Toll (A) 2 Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 Bridge Base Case: SunPass $2.00 +$1.00 $3.00 toll increases in the TBP (B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 Series 2011 Official Parkway SunPass $1.00 +$0.50 $1.50 Statement Operational efficiency - Higher tolls for even dollar toll SunPass users Current Toll Structure No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3 Scenario 3 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3 Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Scenario Facility Present Toll (A) Increase (A) Toll (A) Method Cash $3.00 +$0.50 $3.50 Bridge 3 SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 Notional toll increases TBP (B) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 in the Update Letter. Parkway SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 Inefficient toll collection Minimizes toll increase No frequent user rebate Meets Targeted Revenue Current Toll Structure

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3A Scenario 3A vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3A Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Present Toll (A) Scenario Facility Increase (A) Toll (A) Method Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 Bridge SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 3A TBP (B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 Parkway SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 Meets Targeted Revenue No frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection Current Toll Structure Increased discount for SunPass users

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3B Scenario 3B vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Targeted Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 3B Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Present Toll (A) Scenario Facility Increase (A) Toll (A) Method Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 Bridge SunPass $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 3B TBP (B) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 Parkway SunPass $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 Meets Targeted Revenue No frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection Current Toll Structure Increased discount for SunPass users

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 4 Scenario 4 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 4 Payment Proposed Toll Proposed Scenario Facility Present Toll (A) Increase (A) Toll (A) Method Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 Bridge 4 SunPass $2.00 +$0.10 $2.10 Minimal SunPass toll TBP (B) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 increases Parkway SunPass $1.00 +$0.05 $1.05 Does not meet Targeted Minimizes SunPass toll Revenue increase Inefficient toll collection Current Toll Structure No frequent user rebate

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 5 Scenario 5 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 5 Proposed Toll Present Toll (A) Proposed Toll (A) Scenario Facility Payment Method Increase (A) Cash $3.00 +$0.50 $3.50 Bridge SunPass (Infrequent) (B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 SunPass (Frequent) (B) $2.00 +$0.25 $2.25 5 TBP (C) $1.50 +$0.25 $1.75 Parkway SunPass (Infrequent) (B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 SunPass (Frequent) (B) $1.00 +$0.15 $1.15 Does not meet Targeted Minimizes toll increase Revenue Frequent user rebate Inefficient toll collection

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6 Scenario 6 vs. Targeted Revenue $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Gross Toll Revenues $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FY ending September 30 Mid-Bay Bridge Spence Parkway Target Revenue

Forecasted Gross Toll Revenues – Scenario 6 Proposed Toll Scenario Facility Payment Method Present Toll (A) Proposed Toll (A) Increase (A) Cash $3.00 +$1.00 $4.00 Bridge SunPass (Infrequent) (B) $2.00 +$1.00 $3.00 SunPass (Frequent) (B) $2.00 +$0.50 $2.50 6 TBP (C) $1.50 +$0.50 $2.00 SunPass (Infrequent) (B) Parkway $1.00 +$0.50 $1.50 SunPass (Frequent) (B) $1.00 +$0.25 $1.25 Higher tolls Frequent user rebate Efficient toll collection Meets Targeted Revenue