B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Market Research Results PRESENTERS: Danielle (Gidding) Walker, BPA Lakin Garth, Cadmus B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N TODAY’S AGENDA Project Overview Research Objectives & Survey Design Key Findings Future Planning Future Planning Considerations Q&A 2 1
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N PROJECT OVERVIEW 3 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N PURPOSE OF 6 GOING ON 7 Goal of this project is to inform the technical review of the Council’s 6 th Power Plan il’ 6 th P i f th C Pl • Conduct research on questions posed by BPA and customer utilities • Supplement Council staff analytics, providing data on where the savings occurred Outputs of the project provide us with information to support effective CRAC participation by BPA, customer utilities and regional stakeholders 4 2
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N PROJECT ACTIVITIES LITERATURE DATA DATA MARKET REVIEW COLLECTION ANALYSIS RESEARCH 5 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N KEY FINDINGS One Target, Emerging Emerging Many Paths Technologies Technologies Need are Unique Program Infrastructure Support S t 6 3
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N RESEARCH OBJECTIVES & SURVEY DESIGN 7 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N MARKET RESEARCH FOCUS 8 4
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N MARKET RESEARCH OBJECTIVES MEASURE ADOPTION MARKETING PERFORMANCE CHALLENGES STRATEGIES OVERCOMING PLANNING EFFECTS OF BARRIER & SUPPLY REGIONAL STRATEGIES CURVES SUPPORT 9 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SURVEY DESIGN Received input on the Open ended 30-45 survey instrument from y & quantitative & quantitative minute survey BPA, NEEA & the Council TOPICS PROGRAM SAVINGS & RESEARCH & REGIONAL PLANNING IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION SUPPORT & INVOLVEMENT 10 5
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SURVEY SAMPLE SELECTION PARTICIPATION CHECKLIST Targeted 20-25 interviews Identified utilities that reported emerging technology savings Solicited recommendations from So c ted eco e dat o s o BPA, NEEA & Council staff Invited all utilities at the CRAC & various brown bag presentations 11 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SURVEY SAMPLE PARTICIPANTS REPRESENT: 4 STATES 63% represented of total regional savings* 88% of Emerging Technology 24 24 UTILITIES savings g 14 UTILITIES were surveyed subject to I-937 71% legislation IOUs Publics of regional load *total regional savings includes savings associated with NEEA initiatives 12 6
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE RESPONSES 58% 29% 4% 8% PROGRAM PROGRAM EXECUTIVE ENGINEERS MANAGERS PLANNERS OR MANAGEMENT EVALUATORS 13 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N KEY FINDING: ONE TARGET, MANY PATHS , 14 7
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N ACHIEVING TARGETS Regional Achievements 350 6 th Plan Forecast 300 250 88% 200 of forecasted savings* aMW 150 195% 100 of forecasted savings* 50 242 200 296 220 240 240 134% 134% 0 0 2010 2011 2012 of forecasted savings* 142% of forecasted savings* *2010-2012 15 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N ALTERNATIVE PATHS UTILITIES MAINLY HIT TARGETS THROUGH 1 2 Markets with Strong Technologies with Customer Demand Mature Program & Market Infrastructure WE INTERACTED WITH THE MARKET IN TWO WAYS: • DHPs • TVs • Industrial Energy Management • T8s • T8s WE FOLLOWED WE MOVED THE THE MARKET MARKET 16 8
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SETTING TARGETS THREE UTILITY SEGMENTS IDENTIFIED CUTTING TRIED CLOSE EDGE & TRUE FOLLOWER Typically aggressive conservation Not subject to Targets are moderate and mandated targets targets that include emerging may/may not include (e g (e.g., I-937) I-937) technologies technologies emerging tech emerging tech 36% 24% 40% of survey participants of survey participants of survey participants 43% 14% 6% 100% 0% % contributed toward regional savings 17 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SAVINGS FROM EMERGING TECH 85% Of these savings (21 aMW) 25 aMW 11% OF SAVINGS WAS Of these savings (3 aMW) ACHIEVED THROUGH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES* 4% between 2010-2012 Of these savings (1 aMW) *Ductless Heat Pumps, Heat Pump Water Heaters & Industrial Energy Management 18 9
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N IMPACTS OF CODES & STANDARDS ON ESTABLISHED PROGRAMS POTENTIAL PROGRAM EFFECTS POTENTIAL PROGRAM EFFECTS NEW LIGHTING RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 50% of respondents* APPLIANCES feel that lighting feel that lighting 35% of respondents* feel that 35% of respondents feel that 30% of respondents* programs will be most new construction programs feel that residential will be impacted. In particular impacted. appliances will be from new blower door testing significantly impacted requirements. *20 Total Respondents 19 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N KEY FINDING: EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ARE UNIQUE 20 10
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N RESPONDENT DEFINITIONS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGY A new technology defined by the region Anything that isn't (BPA, RTF) mainstream The Cadillac version of an existing technology Something new Commercially Can be a way to that doesn't available currently exist in use an existing and new the market and th k t d technology to t h l t make it more has potential energy savings efficient Market ready Cutting Edge Close Follower Tried & True 21 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BARRIERS & SOLUTIONS TO EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION TOP 3 BARRIERS POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS 45% Increased incentives Increased saturation to capture FIRST COST & COST economies of scale EFFECTIVENESS 29% Regional program development, Increased marketing efforts & LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE trainings t i i & TRAINING 25% Conduct research, performance testing or case studies TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE 22 11
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