Can Sil ilviculture Solu lutions Mit itigate the Tim imber Supply Im Impacts Resulting fr from Cli limate Change? Jean-Martin Jea in Lu Lussie ier Res esearch Sci cientis ist Canadia ian Wood Fibr ibre Centre Ja January ry 31, 2018 2017-18 CIF 2017 IF e-Le Lecture Se Serie ies “Innovative Solutions to Respond to the Challenge of a Changing Climate” 1 1
Can Si Can Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Talk-show Participants and Contributors Jean ean-Martin Lus Lussie sier Der Derek Sidd Sidders Tim im Kedd eddy St Study Lea Lead and and Program Mana anager, Tec echnology Woo ood Fib Fibre Res esearch Sci Scientist Development, TDT Lea De Lead De Development Spe Specialist CWFC/LFC CWFC, NoF oFC CWFC, NoF oFC Jean ean-Claud ude Ru Ruel el Ver erena Grie iess ss Guy uy Laro Larocque Cha hao o Li Li Cos osmin Fil Filip ipesc scu La Laval al Uni niversi sity, , Uni niversity of of Res esearch Sci Scientist Res esearch Sci Scientist Res esearch Sci Scientist – Quebec Qu British Col olumbia CFS, S, LF LFC CFS, S, NoF oFC CFS, S, PFC 2
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture So How Do We Bring Research to Li Life? Large scale 1. Climate change will likely change the disturbance disturbances regime in many regions of Canada (Fire, Pests, Windthrow) Impact on 2. We don’t know when and where disturbance will occur, but we need to be ready to mitigate their forest age impact on timber supply class distribution Short- and mid-term reductions of sustainable MPB timber supply http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/ 3
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture How can silviculture mit itigate ti timber supply lim limitations in in an even-aged management regime? re 4
Can Si Can Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture 4 Partial Cutting Str trategies to in increase timber supply on th ti the short term Accelerate growth to reduce technical 1 rotation age Redistribute harvest over time in 2 premature stands Allow partial harvest within 3 constrained areas Manage the production of mixed 4 stands 5
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture In Innovative partial cutting strategies Our key re research question What are the PLAN What are the (risks Treatments? most wind, fire and pest) and effective Stand type? how can we reduce strategies? them? Timing? Adaptive Silviculture What are the cost Strategy and productivity of methods? ASSESS EXECUTE What are the impacts How to perform efficient partial on wood production & cuttings? regeneration 6
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Coll llaborative Research Proje ject 3.2 .2 “Silviculture Solutions to Mitigate Risks of f Decreased Short-Term Tim imber Supply” Jean-Martin Lussier & Cosmin Filipescu CIF E-Lecture , January 31 2018 7
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Base Case Management Scenario Resulting Optimal Wood Flow 50.0 1.2 Millions 45.0 1.0 40.0 Standing 35.0 0.8 Volume (m 3 ) Thinning 30.0 m 3 /tree 25.0 0.6 Clearcut 20.0 0.4 Total Harvest 15.0 10.0 0.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 PERIOD (yrs) 8
Can Si Can Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture CASE STUDY Tre ree Farm Li Licence 52, BC Base Case Management Scenario Objectives 1. Maximize NPV from harvest 2. Non declining harvest flow MTB salvage harvest on the first 10 yrs Constant harvest from Yr 20 to 70 and from Yr 80 to 250. 3. Keep at least 25% of the landbase with mature and old-Growth stands (>120 yrs) 4. No VQO areas or Deer wintering habitat 9
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Partial Cutting Str trategy Resulting Optimal Wood Flow 50.0 1.2 Millions 45.0 1.0 40.0 Standing +27% Supply 35.0 (129 000 m 3 /yr) 0.8 Volume (m 3 ) Thinning 30.0 m 3 /tree 25.0 0.6 Clearcut 20.0 0.4 Clearcut 15.0 10.0 0.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 PERIOD (yrs) 10
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Partial Cutting Str trategy Optimized Partial Cutting Schedule PERIOD Stand Type Age Class Yr 0 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 40 Yr 50 Yr 60 Yr 70 Yr 80 Yr 90 Yr 100 0-30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80-110 0 0 0 0 433 232 0 0 0 0 0 NATURAL 120-150 0 0 0 0 0 81 0 0 0 0 0 160-190 0 0 590 289 593 0 0 0 0 0 0 200+ 0 923 1090 589 574 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 2793 234 0 0 0 80-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CURRENT MANAGED 120-150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160-190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2884 829 848 0 FUTURE 80-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MANAGED 120-150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160-190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 0 923 1681 878 1600 313 2793 3118 829 848 0 11
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Mit itigating mid idterm tim imber supply shortage Are thinnings a solu lution? Jillian Spies Dr. Verena C. Griess, Asst. Prof Forest Resources Management And Team J. Spies (UBC) and C.Man 12
Can Si Can Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Case stu tudy area: Bulkley TSA • Bulkley TSA = Typical TSA to be experiencing midterm timber supply shortage. • Midterm timber supply shortage caused by the recent MPB epidemic. • Research team at UBC developed strategic timber supply models looking 250 years into the future. • In these models, commercial thinnings (CT) were applied, focusing on cases in which they might be economically viable. Location of Bulkley TSA in BC and it’s BEC Zones 13
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Methodology • Using FPS-ATLAS a basecase scenario, reflecting current harvest practices in Bulkley TSA was developed. • 6 alternative scenarios were developed: o Harvest methods: 2-pass CT system and clearcutting o Minimum harvest age (MHA): CMAI or 150m 3 /ha o CT: 20 years before CMAI and 20 years after CMAI • Outcomes from these scenarios were compared to the basecase Current age class distribution in the Bulkley TSA 14
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Cl Climate Cha Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Age class distribution In In The 6 Alt lternative scenarios 15
Can Can Si Silvicu icult lture So Solutio tions Mit Mitig igate Tim Timber Su Supply y Imp mpacts Result ltin ing From rom Climate Cha Cl Change - CI CIF F e-Lec Lecture Yie ield Assessment & Modeling Maximizin ing th the Cumulative Effect fr from Si Silv lvic iculture Treatments Dr. Chao Li Derek Sidders Silviculture: combination of science and art How trees respond to different treatments? Decisions: which one, where, how, and when? Modeling: an approach of knowledge & info integration/synthesis to support decision-making Yield assessment: essential info for modeling Examples: Pre-commercial and commercial thinning 16
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