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There is no I in Communty Modelng AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology June 13, 2019 1 NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Forecasts are made by people: Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).

  1. There is no “I” in Communty Modelng AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology June 13, 2019 1

  2. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission – Forecasts are made by people: • Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). • Service Centers within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). – Models provide guidance. • Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models. • Most models are run at NCEP. – More than 20 major simulation codes. – More than 1600 support codes and scripts. – Billions of data ingested daily. – Millions of products delivered daily. • Sharing with world wide partners: – DoD, ECMWF, UK Met Office, JMA, … 2

  3. Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Years Uncertainty Outlook Seasons •Climate Forecast System Months Guidance •North American Multi-Model Ensemble System Forecast Lead Time •North American Ensemble Forecast System 2 Week Threats •Global Ensemble Forecast System Assessments •Global Forecast System 1 Week •Global Dust •National Water Model Forecasts •Land DA •Short-Range Ensemble •Wave Ensemble Days • Waves • Global Ocean •North American Mesoscale • Bays Watches •Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • Space Weather • Storm Surge Hours • Ozone • Tsunami • Nearshore Wave •Rapid Refresh • HRRR Warnings & Alert Minutes •Dispersion (smoke) Coordination Benefits h r e n m t y n e Energy Planning Maritime Fire Weather e n t s Reservoir Control r o t t m c o w u e l r e n a i e r i t t t m o g o e t e a s p l a u i H M m p e y n o t i c v a o r s o r m i c A r y o P r r r e d e c g c i o v p & R n y A E C n O e H e E g f e i r c L e a m p E S 3

  4. NOAA’s Operational Numerical Model Guidance Suite FVCOM) SELFE) 4

  5. Strategic Vision Roadmap … we will move to a product based system that covers all present elements of the productions suite in a more systematic and efficient way Starting from the quilt of models and products created by the implementing solutions rather than addressing requirements …. 5

  6. Strategic Vision Key Elements • Focus on products supporting mission requirements • Unified modeling and data assimilation – Coupled, ensemble based, reforecast and reanalysis – Including pre- and postprocessing, calibration, verification validation – Use NGGPS as a foundation to evolve a unified modeling system • Focus on community modeling • Evidence-driven decisions • Same standards for all who contribute • Transparent and robust governance – Service requirements – Technical requirements / solutions – Collaborative prioritization and decision making 6

  7. Community-Based Development The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is a comprehensive, community-based Earth modeling system, designed as both a research tool and as the basis for NOAA’s operational forecasts. 7

  8. Transitioning at the UFS System Level 8

  9. System Architecture ESMF/NUOPC/NEMS architecture enables unified global coupled modeling and DA Consistent with broader NOAA (UMTF) and US vision (National ESPC) 9

  10. Q3 FY 2019 FV3-GFS Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  11. GFSv15 Improvements over operational GFS (GFSv14) in retrospective runs (significantly) Improved 500-hpa anomaly correlation (NH and SH) ✓ Intense tropical cyclone deepening in GFS not observed in FV3GFS ✓ FV3GFS tropical cyclone track forecasts improved (within 5 days) ✓ ✓ Warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation improved Multiple tropical cyclone centers generated by GFS not seen in FV3GFS forecasts or ✓ analyses General improvement in HWRF ✓ ✓ New simulated composite reflectivity output is a nice addition Some indication that fv3gfs can generate modest surface cold pools from significant ✓ convection Improved ozone and water vapor physics and products ✓ ✓ Improved precipitation ETS score (hit/miss/false alarm) On the watch list Can be too progressive with synoptic pattern ✓ Precipitation dry bias for moderate rainfall ✓ Hot 2m temperatures in the mid-west ✓ ✓ Some degradation in track forecasts at days 6-7 in the Atlantic 11

  12. Two-pronged unification towards S2S and Regional Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  13. Q2 FY 2020 GEFSv12 to 35 days Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  14. Q1 FY 2022 Fully Coupled S2S Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  15. Q4 FY 2022 FV3-based stand-alone Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  16. Q4 FY 2023 Regional nests (in ||) Strategic Vision Fig. 2

  17. Thank You for Your Time. Questions? 17

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