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Alabamas Transportation System Concerns: Then, Now, and Next Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE Executive Director South Alabama Freight Forum Mobile, AL August 20, 2018 ATI and Associated Centers 2 2 Ala. Transp. System Conditions &

  1. Alabama’s Transportation System Concerns: Then, Now, and Next … Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE Executive Director South Alabama Freight Forum Mobile, AL August 20, 2018

  2. ATI and Associated Centers 2 2

  3. Ala. Transp. System Conditions & Performance • Time Horizon: 20 years (year 2040) • Scenarios o Baseline, Stay the Existing Course ▪ Existing Funding Policies ▪ Existing Investment Strategies o Let the Conditions Get no Worse o Compete with SEC states • What is the Cost of Doing Nothing? http://blog.al.com/breaking/2013/06/poll_results_alabama_53_is_top.html http://informedinfrastructure.com/15457/alabama-dot-begins-evaluating-mobile-river-bridge-designs/ 3

  4. Five Working Groups • Physical infrastructure and safety • Ports, harbors, and inland waterways • Revenues, standardization, and allocation • Technology considerations • Public policy 4

  5. Where Have We Been? Changes in Alabama Between 1990 and 2015 • Alabama’s 60% 57% transportation 50% 46% infrastructure has not 40% kept pace with our % Increase 30% population or our 20% 20% economy. 14% 10% • As a result, it is 0% costing us time, lives, Population Vehicles VMT Lane Miles Registered jobs, opportunity, and money. 5

  6. Annual Peak Hour Delay Per Commuter in Alabama 6

  7. Alabama Road Network Interstates: 4,685 miles Non-Interstate: 208,442 miles TOTAL: 213,127 miles $366 billion 7

  8. Alabama’s Bridges • Number of bridges = 15,954 o State = 5,753 o County = 8,621 o City = 1,517 o Other = 63 $21 billion 8

  9. ALDOT’s Bridge Age by Year 2020 60% 50% 40% Total: 5,753 30% May I ask where you 20% studied engineering? 10% 0% Over 50 years 40-50 years 30-40 years 20-30 years 10-20 years 1-10 years 9 9

  10. Alabama’s Annual Road Fatalities 60% of the fatalities occurred in rural areas 1400 30% # Fatalities % Change 1200 20% 1000 % Change 10% 800 # Fatalities 600 0% 400 -10% 200 0 -20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Economic impact of crashes on Alabama’s roads = $17.4 Billion in 2015 10

  11. Fuel Efficiency & Consumption 24 24 900 900 850 850 22 22 800 800 20 20 750 750 18 18 Gallons Gallons MPG MPG 700 700 16 16 650 650 14 14 600 600 12 12 550 550 10 10 500 500 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 Fleet MPG Fleet MPG Gasoline Used [gal] Gasoline Used [gal] 12,000 miles / year 11

  12. March 2003 Index = 1.000 0.900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 1.900 National Highway Construction Cost Index March 2003 June September December March 2004 June September December March and Consumer Price Index 2005 June September December March 2006 June September December March 2007 June September December March 2008 June September NHCCI December March 2009 June September December March 2010 June CPI September December March 2011 June September December March 2012 June September December March 2013 June September December March 2014 June September December March 2015 June September December March 2016 June September December March 2017 June September 12

  13. Alabama’s Road & Bridge Assets • Assets: ~ $387 Billion • Replacement Cost o ~ $631 Billion (10 yrs); ~ $1.03 Trillion (20 yrs) o Single largest capital investment of the people • Protect, preserve, and increase value of assets • Current annual investments o Less than 0.5% of the current cost of the assets 13

  14. Mobility and Congesion Costs • Mobility Analysis only: NOT maintenance, safety, operations, technology, resilience, reliability, etc. • A menu of options for mobility investment and congestion • For each of Alabama’s 12 metro areas, we developed a set of choices for how you pay for mobility. o Paying to solve the problem by investing in new capacity and better operations, …or….. o Paying by sitting in traffic, burning extra fuel, missing meetings, larger vehicle fleets to serve the same delivery or service area, more expensive manufacturing and shipping costs • Metropolitan Planning Organization: Travel Demand Models o Population and Jobs o Future year road networks o Best available local estimates of the future 14 14

  15. What Numbers Did We Get? • Annual person-hours of travel delay: extra travel time (millions) • Annual delay hours per auto commuter: per peak period commuter • Congestion cost for autos and trucks: extra time and wasted fuel • Cost of new capacity (standing in for all improvements): $MM of spending on mobility improvements ( no other costs ) ...then we did some math • 30-year totals and present value of costs for each region 15 15

  16. Mobility Investment Goal Scenarios Goals Based On Delay Per Auto Commuter • Maintain 2016 Congestion Levels • Best Among Southeast States: best of all urban regions for similar population sizes • Middle of Southeast States: average urban value for similar population sizes • Business as Usual Trend: continue current spending trend • Invest Any Additional Funds in Maintenance: no more new capacity funds beyond current committed investments >>Southeast States: AR, FL, KY, GA, LA, MS, SC, TN, TX 16 16

  17. Congestion and Costs • Two regions of interest to SAFF 17 17

  18. Tough Choices… • So we added two more DRAFT • Optimum Conditions: lowest congestion cost • Minimum Cost Competitive: lower capacity cost, acceptable? congestion TOTAL COST ($ Millions) Scenario New Capacity Congestion Total Cost Cost Cost Maintain 2016 Congestion Level $12,122 $25,019 $37,141 Best Among Southeastern States $12,157 $24,268 $36,425 Middle of Southeastern States $6,908 $30,769 $37,677 Current Trend - Business as Usual $4,516 $36,049 $40,565 Invest in Maintenance Only $1,701 $40,663 $42,364 Optimum Conditions Alternative $11,804 $23,051 $34,855 Minimum Cost Competitive Alternative $8,802 $27,546 $36,348 18

  19. 100% Accept Some Level of Congestion Diversify Development Patterns % Varies in Each City Manage the Construction Process Manage the Demand Improve System Efficiency Build More Capacity 0% 19

  20. DRAFT Conclusions • Range of possible investment goals • Resulting congestion levels and costs • ..But no consistent ‘best’ scenario for all regions • The cost of “doing nothing” is not zero • A range of methods to pay for congestion o Pay to address the problem o Suffer the problem by paying in extra time, fuel, shipping costs, missed meetings, family events, etc. • Need more discussion about the choices 20 20

  21. Alabama Transportation Institute: A Resource for Alabama... Shashi Nambisan, Executive Director E-mail: shashi@ua.edu 21

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