The truth about cars: real-world testing and labelling for a - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The truth about cars: real-world testing and labelling for a greener future Nick Molden 22 November 2018

Emissions Analytics’ credentials • International testing and ratings organisation • Founded in 2011 • Privately owned • Headquartered in the UK • Operations in UK, Germany, USA and South Korea • Focused on on-road testing and data analysis • Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data • Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media 2

Key activities • Over 2000 passenger cars tested • ~50 light commercial vehicles tested • Heavy-duty commercial vehicles tested • Agricultural equipment tested in service • Newly-launched programme testing non-road mobile machinery, including generators, construction equipment • Waterborne vessel testing commenced 3

Original motivation for EA • Consumers found that official figures and their own average real-world fuel economy differed greatly • Ambient monitoring showed persistent air quality problems, despite successive more stringent Euro stages • Little independent data was available to consumers or cities • The issues were not being officially acknowledged • The gap between regulated and on-road emissions suggested that unsuitable vehicles were being sold, leading to disappointed customers and environmental problems 4

Growing fuel consumption gap 70.0 10% • Tests back to Euro 3 5% diesels 60.0 • No improvement in real- 0% 50.0 world diesel Mpg -5% • Gap between real-world and official No reduction in CO 2 Fuel economy (mpg) 40.0 -10% • Diesel 25% more -15% 30.0 efficient than gasoline, despite direct injection -20% 20.0 penetration -25% • NEDC labelling system 10.0 -30% lost credibility from Euro 0.0 -35% 5 onwards Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 Average of Official Combined FE Average of Adjusted Combined FE Average of Variance of Adjusted Combined to Official 5

Test equipment • SEMTECH-DS and -LDV • Portable Emissions Measurement System connects to tailpipe • Captures emissions for CO 2 , CO, NO, NO 2 , total hydrocarbons • At 1 Hertz • Air temperature, pressure, humidity • GPS for speed and altitude • Engine data via CANBUS • Fuel economy derived via carbon balance • Weight addition 100kg 6

7

The legacy NO x problem 2.000 • Dirtiest Euro 6 diesels 1.800 are 6-7 times worse 1.600 than cleanest Euro 5 • 1.400 And are ~3 times worse than cleanest 1.200 Real-world NOx (g/km) Euro 3/4 1.000 • And are about twice as 0.800 dirty as the average 0.600 Euro 3/4 Euro 3 • 20-year-old cars 0.400 Euro 4 cleaner than brand 0.200 Euro 5 new Euro 6 0.000 1998 2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 8

Issue with Euro 6 • High variation in NO x performance within Euro 6 Dirtiest 10% in 2013, 1777 • Of 2017 crop, the worst are 32 Cleanest 10% in 2013, 265 times more emitting than the Dirtiest 10% in best 2017, 1020 • Cleanest 10% in Cleanest diesels are lower 2017, 32 emitting than average gasoline Average RDE compliant, 48 • All of these diesels are labelled Average Euro 5/6 gasoline, 41 “Euro 6” Cleanest in 2018, 15 • And many are still on sale new 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 NO x , g/km 9

How clean is gasoline? 1000 250 • CO 2 18% higher per km than diesels 900 • PN 71% lower for diesels 800 200 • NO x equivalent for best diesels NO x (mg/km or PN (#x10^8) 700 600 150 CO 2 (g/km) • Dirtiest 10% of gasolines emit 129 mg/km 500 of NO x 400 100 • Cleanest 10% of diesels emit 70 mg/km 300 • Cleanest diesels 46% cleaner than worst 200 50 petrols 100 0 0 Average Euro 6 Average Euro 6 Cleanest 10% of ➢ Individual model selection dominates gasoline diesel diesels technology in outcome NOx (mg/km) PN (# x 10^8) CO2 (g/km) 10

EQUA Index • Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy • Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations • Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail • Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at www.equaindex.com • Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard • Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP) • Jointly established the Allow Independent Road-testing (AIR) Alliance (www.allowair.org) – separate entity from EA and not-for-profit • Authoritative advisory board 11

Scientific Advisory Committee of AIR Helen ApSimon Professor of Air Pollution Studies, Imperial College London Reader in the Energy Division of the Department of Engineering, University of Dr. Adam Boies Cambridge Dr. Claire Holman Chair, Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM) Dr. Guido Lanzani Head of Air Quality Unit, Regional Environmental Agency, Lombardy, Italy Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Dr. Xavier Querol Scientific Research Head of Sector Air Quality Management, Berlin Senate Department for Environment, Martin Lutz Transport and Climate Protection Lecturer in Transport and the Environment in the Centre for Transport Studies, Dr. Marc Stettler Imperial College London Dr. Martin Williams Professor of Air Quality Research, Kings College London 12

EQUA Aq 13

EQUA CO 2 • “A1” to “H5” • A to H for absolute emissions • 1 to 5 for proximity to official – “honesty” • 39% average CO 2 excess – 189 g/km • 16% higher emissions from petrol compared to diesel • 1.5 litre engines better than most highly down-sized • 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest 14

EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100 • MPG values for almost all vehicles on sale in last five years • Over 70,000 model variants • Remainder extrapolated using new proprietary model of real-world MPG, based on technical characteristics of vehicles ➢ Comprehensive alternative to official system 15

Mayor of London • Cleaner Vehicle Checker • Launch October 2017 • Complement to T-Charge and proposed ULEZ • New A+ rating if 60 mg/km met 16

Policy proposal 2.000 • UK Govt Restrict diesels with EQUA proposal 1.800 Aq ‘E’ rating or worse • Real-world NO x needs to 1.600 be less than 250 mg/km 1.400 (Euro 4 limit) 1.200 Real-world NOx (g/km) • Affects ~50% Euro 6 1.000 diesels • 0.800 87% reduction in total emissions 0.600 Euro 3 • Quick and fair 0.400 EA proposal Euro 4 0.200 Euro 5 Euro 6 0.000 1998 2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020 17

Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902 18