The Spectre of Monetarism Roscoe Lecture, Liverpool John Moores - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Spectre of Monetarism Roscoe Lecture, Liverpool John Moores University Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England 5 th December 2016 2

Liverpool golden era Liverpool Custom House, John Atkinson Grimshaw (1836-1893) 3

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Global internet access has boomed while poverty has fallen sharply Per cent of world population 50 3.4bn 40 30 20 10 0.4bn 0 2000 2016 5

Global internet access has boomed while poverty has fallen sharply Per cent of world population % of world population 50% 50 3.4bn 40 40% 1.9 bn people 30% 30 20 20% 10 10% 0.8 bn 0.4bn people 0 0% 2000 2016 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 6

Global income and life expectancy have increased notably 7

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 8

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 2012 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 9

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 2012 2013 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 10

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 2012 2013 2014 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 11

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 12

Global growth serially disappointing 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Per cent 8.0 Emerging economies 6.0 4.0 Advanced economies 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lines show forecasts over time. Dot shows actual outturns. 13

Weakest wage growth since 1860s 14

I ncome inequality rose sharply during the 1980s… and the share of top 1% has continued to grow Less equal 15

Increasing disparity between the incomes of lowest 10% and highest 10% Top 10% Bottom 10%

Increasing disparity between the incomes of lowest 10% and highest 10% Top 10% Bottom 10%

Increasing disparity between the incomes of lowest 10% and highest 10% Top 10% Bottom 10%

Increasing disparity between the incomes of lowest 10% and highest 10% Top 10% Bottom 10%

Since 1995, wealth has increased most for the oldest 1995 2006-8 2012-14 20

Mid-18 th Century 21

Turn of 19 th Century 22

Mid-19 th Century 23

Turn of 20 th Century 24

Mid-20 th Century 25

Turn of 21 st Century 26

Bond yields used to rise when equities fell… now they fall too Bond yields and equities moving in opposite directions No correlation Same direction 27

Unemployment rate Income 65+ 65+ % change since 2006 pp increase since 2006 25 8 7 20 6 15 5 10 4 5 3 0 2 -5 1 -10 0 -15 -1 -20 -2 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 28

Unemployment rate Income 16-24 65+ 16-24 65+ % change since 2006 pp increase since 2006 25 8 7 20 6 15 5 10 4 5 3 0 2 -5 1 -10 0 -15 -1 -20 -2 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 29

The young were affected disproportionately by the recession Unemployment rate Income 16-24 65+ 16-24 65+ % change since 2006 pp increase since 2006 25 8 7 20 6 15 5 10 4 5 3 0 2 -5 1 -10 0 -15 -1 -20 -2 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 30

Around half of households are not savers…

Around half of households are savers…

… but few savers do not also have housing wealth

Total net wealth Wealth (% change since 2006-8) 60 50 40 Most wealthy 30 20 10 0 2006-8 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 34

Total net wealth Wealth (% change since 2006-8) 60 50 Least wealthy 40 Most wealthy 30 20 10 0 2006-8 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 35

Total net wealth Income Wealth Income (% change since 2006-8) (% change since 2006) 10 60 8 50 Least wealthy 6 40 4 Most wealthy 30 Highest 2 income 20 0 10 -2 0 -4 2006-8 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 36

Total net wealth Income Wealth Income (% change since 2006-8) (% change since 2006) 10 60 Lowest income 8 50 Least wealthy 6 40 4 Most wealthy 30 Highest 2 income 20 0 10 -2 0 -4 2006-8 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 37

Wealth and income have increased proportionally most for the poorest Total net wealth Income Wealth Income (% change since 2006-8) (% change since 2006) 10 60 Lowest income 8 50 Least wealthy 6 Second- lowest 40 4 Middle income Most wealthy 30 Second- Highest 2 most income 20 0 Middle wealth Second- 10 -2 least Second- highest 0 -4 2006-8 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 38

Percentage point deviation from 1993-2007 trend 10.0 5.0 0.0 GDP -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 39

Percentage point deviation from 1993-2007 trend 10.0 5.0 0.0 GDP -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 Headwinds -20.0 -25.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 40

Percentage point deviation from 1993-2007 trend 10.0 5.0 Monetary Policy 0.0 GDP -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 Headwinds -20.0 -25.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 41

Percentage point deviation from 1993-2007 trend 10.0 5.0 Monetary Policy 0.0 GDP PRODUCTIVITY -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 Headwinds -20.0 -25.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 42

Weak productivity explains weakness in GDP Percentage point deviation from 1993-2007 trend 10.0 5.0 Monetary Policy 0.0 GDP PRODUCTIVITY -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 Headwinds -20.0 -25.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 43

Growth Consumption Other factors Total Real GDP (oya) Per cent 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 -0.5 44

Growth Saving Saving rate Consumption Other factors Total Real GDP (oya) Per cent Per cent 4 14 3.5 12 3 10 2.5 8 2 6 1.5 4 1 2 0.5 0 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 -0.5 45

Growth increasingly consumption- led… as saving falls Growth Saving Saving rate Consumption Other factors Total Real GDP (oya) Per cent Per cent 4 14 3.5 12 3 10 2.5 8 2 6 1.5 4 1 2 0.5 0 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 -0.5 46

The Spectre of Monetarism? 47

or the friendly ghost? 48