The Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future GeSI SMARTer 2020
Dr. Luis Neves Group Climate Change and Sustainability Officer Deutsche Telekom Chairman, Global e-Sustainability Initiative
GeSI members and partners
GeSI vision A sustainable world through responsible, ICT- enabled transformation. 3
Human activity combined with limited emissions abatement has pushed CO 2 emissions to nearly 32,000 Mt in 2009 Global CO 2 emissions (Gt) 30,000 Developing economy growth rises 20,000 Post-WWII economic boom Industrial revolution begins 10,000 0 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
GHG emissions lead to dramatic and widespread temperature changes – there are also other destabilizing effects Temperature Weather Ice sheet changes pattern shifts melting Rainforest Acidification Species dieback of oceans extinction
We have re- evaluated ICT’s potential to enable a low -carbon economy in 2020 SMARTer 2020 follows up the SMART 2020 study, which first evaluated ICT’s potential to enable a low-carbon economy in 2020 Today In 2008 SMART2020 SMARTer 2020
The abatement potential of ICT is seven times the size of the ICT sector’s own carbon footprint SMART2020 study SMARTer 2020 Key changes Increase in potential due to: • Availability of new abatement Abatement 7.8 9.1 solutions potential • Updates to previous estimations GtCO 2 e GtCO 2 e due to recent trends and in 2020 technological innovations • Increase in total global GHG emissions 5.5x 7.2x Lower estimate due to: ICT industry's • Emergence of smart devices which 1.4 1.3 have lower footprint than PCs emissions in GtCO 2 e GtCO 2 e • More precise estimates of wireless 2020 networks emissions available 2.6% of global 2.3% of global • Global economic slowdown also a emissions 1 emissions 1 factor 1. On a base of 55 Gt CO 2 e GHG emissions (IEA)
The potential for information technology to reduce global carbon emissions has been under-estimated until now 9.1 GtCO 2 e 16.5% Total abatement potential of % of global GHG emissions ICT-enabled solutions in 2020 in 2020
Emissions savings could yield USD1.9 trillion in gross energy and fuel savings, and 29.5 million jobs would be created 9.1 Gt GHG emission reductions As estimated in the report (16.5% of total) Number of barrels of oil with equivalent emissions 1 21.6B Barrel of oil emits 0.43 metric tons of CO 2 1 barrels At today's crude oil price, value of the oil that would $87.99 per barrel of crude oil be saved 2 $1.9T as of Nov 6, 2012 2 Using the same ratio of economic Equivalent number of jobs if the money was used in 29.5M jobs value to jobs created as in other sectors 3 SMART2020 report Though estimates, these calculation give a sense of the magnitude of the economic benefits 1. Source: EPA http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/pubs/calcmeth.htm#oil 2. Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ )
9.1 gigatons of GHG emissions amounts to USD1.9 trillion in gross energy and fuel savings Savings of 21.6 billion barrels of oil 1 x 1,000,000 Equivalent to GDP of the Russian economy 2 1. Number of barrels of oil with equivalent emissions assuming Barrel of oil emits 0.43 metric tons of CO 2 2. At today's crude oil price, value of the oil that would be saved ($87.99 per barrel of crude oil as of Nov 6, 2012)
The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors Example 1: Smart farming Agriculture & Land-Use Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Transportation
The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors Example 2: Automation of industrial processes Agriculture & Land-Use Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Transportation
The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors Example 3: Integration of renewables Agriculture & Land-Use Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Transportation
Emission reductions come from virtualization initiatives such as cloud computing, but also through efficiency gains Abatement potential by change lever Major drivers • Establishment of technologies Abatement potential (GtCO 2 e) 0101010 that substitute or eliminate 1001000 10 the need for a carbon- 4.7 9.1 intensive product Digital. & • Not many new technological dematerial. 8 innovations in change lever • Trends in increased data complexity require real time 6 analysis and communication • Social media and networking Data coll. & 2.4 Comm. are also a major driver 4 • Driven by solutions that manage the use of resources (e.g. building management 1.5 system) and integrate less- System 2 integration carbon intensive processes (e.g. renewables) 0.5 • Result of intelligent 0 simulation, automation, Digitalization & Data collection & System integration Process, activity, Total dematerialization communication and functional redesign, or control optimization • Improved processing power Optimization driving growth of change lever 1.Of global GHG emissions in 2020 Source: BCG analysis
35 ICT-enabled abatement solutions identified in the study Abatement potential modeled individually for each sub-lever Sources of emissions by economic end-use sectors 1 Service and Agriculture and Power Transportation Manufacturing Buildings consumer land use Video-conferencing E-commerce 0101010 Digitalization and Telecommuting E-paper 1001000 dematerialization Online media Demand management Eco-driving Smart water Livestock management Data collection & Time-of-day pricing Real-time traffic alerts Disaster management Smart water Change levers communication Apps for intermodal Asset sharing / crowd sourcing Asset sharing Integration of Integration of EVs, Integration of Integration of renewables bio-fuels renewables renewables System Intelligent traffic Building management Virtual power plant management integration system Integration of Fleet management & off-grid storage telematics Power-load Optimization of truck Optimization of Minimization of Smart farming Building design route planning variable speed motors packaging Process, activity balancing Voltage optimization Building design and functional Power grid Automation of Optimization of optimization Voltage optimization industrial processes optimization logistics network Reduction in inventory 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.6 Total abatement in GtCO 2 e: (% of all sector emissions 1 ) (14%) (25%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (N/A 2 ) = calculated abatement 1. Based on 2008 data – EDGAR; 2. EDGAR data does not split building out as a separate sector potential by sub-lever
ICT emissions growth expected to slow down from 6% to ~4% ICT emissions 2.3% of global emissions by 2020 Global ICT emissions (GtCO 2 e) 2.0 CAGR CAGR 1.5 +3.8% 2002-2011 2011-2020 1.27 8.6% 7.1% +6.1% Data centers 1.0 0.91 Voice and Data 4.7% 4.6% Networks 0.53 0.5 End-user devices 6.1% 2.3% 0.0 2002 2011 2020 % global GHG 1.3% 1.9% 2.3% emissions 1. Data for 2010 2. Previous study used an incorrect number for the wireless network emissions (50 vs. 24kWh/yr) and therefore ended up with higher total emissions Source: Gartner; Forrester ; U.S. Census Bureau; IEA; Greentouch; CEET; CDP; Ovum; GSMA; CERN; Cisco; CEET; SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age; academic publications; industry experts; academic experts; manufacturer websites; GeSI Smart2020 Refresh team members; BCG analysis
Policies at the national level have the most significant potential to drive sub-lever adoption Individual behaviors, attitudes, and habits Service and Agriculture Energy Buildings Manufacturing Transportation consumer and land use Behavior: Barriers to be Financing : Economics: M&E: Difficult Infrastructure: Financing: Need to addressed at High upfront High costs of to quantify Strong public High upfront ensure private costs, smart gird and national level savings transit must be CAPEX costs adoption especially for renewable in place to without policy small farmers technologies serve as a Slow Landlord- viable option adoption: Education: tenant: Need Deployment : Often little Few Economics: to better align Technology motivation for consumers Behavior and Need for incentives require full action realize or habits: Must stronger and simplifying deployment to because of low understand full change strong business case building code be effective energy prices habits benefits Develop financial aid Establish carbon market Ensure fair IP licensing Create " Center of programs for developing to monetize emissions of abatement technology Excellence " countries Global policies Set and enforce global cascading targets Recognize ICT solutions as part of a for GHG emission reduction global strategy to reduce emissions
Country deep-dives provide context to demonstrate how national and local policies can yield higher abatement Brazil Canada China Germany India U.K. U.S. All countries have unique circumstances that impact their ability to abate GHGs Those differences drive which end-use sectors and which sub-levers deserve most attention Policies at the national level are the most effective drivers of change in all countries
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